THE EFFECTS OF TOURISM SHOCKS IN TURKIYE: AN EVALUATION OF EXPENDITURE ITEMS THROUGH UNIT ROOT TESTS

Abstract

Tourism activities directly and/or indirectly influence the social, cultural and economic indicators of host countries. The aim of this study is to examine whether the effects of shocks in tourism revenues and their subcomponentsin Turkey and their subcategories are permanent or temporary, by employing unit root tests. In this context, the tourism expenditure dataset published by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) for the period 2012:1-2024:2 has been utilized. To ensure the robustness of the empirical findings, traditional unit root tests relying on the Dickey-Fuller (DF) approach and unit root tests that account for structural breaks and employ the RALS procedure were applied. The findings indicate that the null hypothesis was rejected in the variables of package tours, health expenditures, and tour services, showing that the effects of shocks are temporary and that the relevant variables return to their mean in the short run. In other expenditure variables, it has been determined that the effects of shocks were found to be permanent. The findings suggest that while the Turkish tourism sector exhibits greater resilience to shocks in certain expenditure types, shocks with structural and lasting impacts are generally more prevalent across the sector.

Keywords

• Tourism Expenditure
• FADF Unit Root Test
• RALS-ADF Unit Root Test
• Turkiye.

TÜRKİYE’DEKİ TURİZM ŞOKLARININ ETKİLERİ: HARCAMA KALEMLERİ ÜZERİNE BİRİM KÖK TESTLERİ İLE DEĞERLENDİRME

Abstract

Turizm faaliyetleri, ev sahibi ülkelerin sosyal, kültürel ve ekonomik göstergelerini dolaylı ve/veya doğrudan etkilemektedir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye'deki turizm faaliyetlerinden elde edilen gelirlerin ve bu gelirlerin alt kalemlerine yönelik şokların etkilerinin kalıcı mı yoksa geçici mi olduğunu birim kök testleri yardımıyla incelemektir. Bu doğrultuda, Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu (TÜİK) tarafından 2012:1-2024:2 dönemine ilişkin yayımlanan turizm harcamaları veri setinden yararlanılmıştır. Ampirik analiz sonucunda elde edilen bulguların güvenirliliğinin sağlanması için DF yöntemine dayanan geleneksel birim kök testlerinin yanı sıra, yapısal değişimleri dikkate alan ve RALS prosedürüne dayanan birim kök testleri kullanılmıştır. Bulgular, paket tur, sağlık harcamaları ve tur hizmetleri değişkenlerinde sıfır hipotezinin reddedildiğini, şokların etkisinin geçici olduğunu ve ilgili değişkenlerin kısa sürede yeniden ortalamaya döndüğünü göstermektedir. Diğer harcama kalemlerinde ise, şokların etkisinin kalıcı olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Bu sonuçlar, Türkiye’de turizm sektörünün belirli harcama türlerinde şoklara karşı daha dirençli olduğunu, ancak genel olarak sektörde yapısal ve kalıcı etkiler yaratan şokların baskın olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır.

Keywords

• Turizm Harcamaları
• FADF Birim Kök Testi
• RALS-ADF Birim Kök Testi
• Türkiye.

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