THE EFFECTS OF TOURISM SHOCKS IN TURKIYE: AN EVALUATION OF EXPENDITURE ITEMS THROUGH UNIT ROOT TESTS

Öz

Tourism activities directly and/or indirectly influence the social, cultural and economic indicators of host countries. The aim of this study is to examine whether the effects of shocks in tourism revenues and their subcomponentsin Turkey and their subcategories are permanent or temporary, by employing unit root tests. In this context, the tourism expenditure dataset published by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) for the period 2012:1-2024:2 has been utilized. To ensure the robustness of the empirical findings, traditional unit root tests relying on the Dickey-Fuller (DF) approach and unit root tests that account for structural breaks and employ the RALS procedure were applied. The findings indicate that the null hypothesis was rejected in the variables of package tours, health expenditures, and tour services, showing that the effects of shocks are temporary and that the relevant variables return to their mean in the short run. In other expenditure variables, it has been determined that the effects of shocks were found to be permanent. The findings suggest that while the Turkish tourism sector exhibits greater resilience to shocks in certain expenditure types, shocks with structural and lasting impacts are generally more prevalent across the sector.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Tourism Expenditure
• FADF Unit Root Test
• RALS-ADF Unit Root Test
• Turkiye.

TÜRKİYE’DEKİ TURİZM ŞOKLARININ ETKİLERİ: HARCAMA KALEMLERİ ÜZERİNE BİRİM KÖK TESTLERİ İLE DEĞERLENDİRME

Öz

Turizm faaliyetleri, ev sahibi ülkelerin sosyal, kültürel ve ekonomik göstergelerini dolaylı ve/veya doğrudan etkilemektedir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye'deki turizm faaliyetlerinden elde edilen gelirlerin ve bu gelirlerin alt kalemlerine yönelik şokların etkilerinin kalıcı mı yoksa geçici mi olduğunu birim kök testleri yardımıyla incelemektir. Bu doğrultuda, Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu (TÜİK) tarafından 2012:1-2024:2 dönemine ilişkin yayımlanan turizm harcamaları veri setinden yararlanılmıştır. Ampirik analiz sonucunda elde edilen bulguların güvenirliliğinin sağlanması için DF yöntemine dayanan geleneksel birim kök testlerinin yanı sıra, yapısal değişimleri dikkate alan ve RALS prosedürüne dayanan birim kök testleri kullanılmıştır. Bulgular, paket tur, sağlık harcamaları ve tur hizmetleri değişkenlerinde sıfır hipotezinin reddedildiğini, şokların etkisinin geçici olduğunu ve ilgili değişkenlerin kısa sürede yeniden ortalamaya döndüğünü göstermektedir. Diğer harcama kalemlerinde ise, şokların etkisinin kalıcı olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Bu sonuçlar, Türkiye’de turizm sektörünün belirli harcama türlerinde şoklara karşı daha dirençli olduğunu, ancak genel olarak sektörde yapısal ve kalıcı etkiler yaratan şokların baskın olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Turizm Harcamaları
• FADF Birim Kök Testi
• RALS-ADF Birim Kök Testi
• Türkiye.

Kaynakça

1. Abbott, A., De Vita, G., & Altinay, L. (2012). Revisiting the convergence hypothesis for tourism markets: Evidence from Turkey using the pairwise approach. Tourism Management, 33(3), 537-544. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2011.06.003
2. Ağır, H., & Özbek S. (2021). Türkiye’nin turizm piyasalarında yakınsama hipotezinin yeniden gözden geçirilmesi: Birim kök testlerinden kanıtlar. S. Bayrakcı, Z. Yetiş ve S. Yücel Güleç (Edsç). Ekonomik Kalkınma ve Turizm (1. Baskı, s. 140-153). NEU Yayınları.
3. Akadiri, S.S., Alola, A.A., & Uzuner, G. (2020). Economic policy uncertainty and tourism: evidence from the heterogeneous panel. Current Issues in Tourism, 23(20), 2507-2514. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2019.1687662
4. Albaladejo, I.P., González-Martínez, M.I., & Martínez-García, M.P. (2020). A double life cycle in tourism arrivals to Spain: Unit root tests with gradual change analysis. Journal of Destination Marketing & Management, 18, 100497. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdmm.2020.100497
5. Alper, A.E., & Demiral, M. (2017). Türkiye’nin turizm piyasaları için yakınsama hipotezinin testi: Fourier durağanlık analizi bulguları. Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 10(4), 205-213. https://doi.org/10.25287/ohuiibf.334736
6. Baig, S., & Hussain, H. (2020). Do shocks have permanent or transitory effects on tourist inflow? An application of stationarity test with structural breaks: Evidence reexamined for Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan. Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, 25(2), 120-130. https://doi.org/10.1080/10941665.2019.1684961
7. Balli, F., Uddin, G.S., & Shahzad, S.J.H. (2019). Geopolitical risk and tourism demand in emerging economies. Tourism Economics, 25(6), 997-1005. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354816619831824
8. Banerjee, P., Arčabić, V., & Lee, H. (2017). Fourier ADL cointegration test to approximate smooth breaks with new evidence from crude oil market. Economic Modelling, 67, 114-124. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2016.11.004

9. Bhattacharya, M., & Narayan, P.K. (2005). Testing for the random walk hypothesis in the case of visitor arrivals: Evidence from Indian tourism. Applied Economics, 37(13), 1485-1490. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840500109332
10. Biri, G. (2022). Türkiye’nin sağlık turizmi gelirini etkileyen faktörlerin eşbütünleşme analizi. Anadolu Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 22(2), 39-58. https://doi.org/10.53443/anadoluibfd.907290
11. Bozkurt, K., & Bahar, O. (2015). Turizm gelirlerine yönelik bir yakınsama analizi. Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi, 8(15), 157-178. https://doi.org/10.18092/ijeas.14404
12. Bozoklu, S., Yilanci, V., & Gorus, M.S. (2020). Persistence in per capita energy consumption: a fractional integration approach with a Fourier function. Energy economics, 91, 104926. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2020.104926
13. Ceyhan, M.S., Kamacı, A., & Peçe, M.A. (2021). Covid 19 pandemisinin ekonomik göstergeler üzerindeki etkileri: Yapısal kırılmalı birim kök analizi. Econder International Academic Journal, 5(2), 204-222. https://doi.org/10.35342/econder.1014540
14. Chu, H.P., Yeh, M.L., & Chang, T.Y. (2014). Are visitor arrivals to China stationary? An empirical note, Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, 19(2), 248-256. https://doi.org/10.1080/10941665.2012.739188
15. Christopoulos, D.K., & Leo´n-Ledesma, M.A. (2010). Smooth breaks and non-linear mean reversion: Post-Bretton Woods real exchange rates. Journal of International Money and Finance, 29, 1076–1093. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2010.02.003
16. Damar, E., Özcan, C.C., & Özmen, İ. (2021). Analysis of tourism shocks by unit root test with structural breaks: The case of Turkey. Journal of Turkish Tourism Research, 5(1), 660-677. https://tutad.org/index.php/tutad/article/view/439/435
17. Dedeoğlu, M. (2016). Are shocks to Turkey’s tourist arrivals permanent?. Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics E-Journal, (24), 30-39. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/268725
18. Dickey, D.A., & Fuller, W.A. (1979). Distribution of estimators of autoregressive timeseries with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, 427–431.
19. Dickey, D.A. & Fuller, W.A. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica, 49, 1057-1072. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912517
20. Dünya Turizm Örgütü (2024). UN tourism dashboard. https://www.unwto.org/tourism-data/un-tourism-tourism-dashboard
21. Elliott, G., Rothenberg, T.J., & Stock, J.H. (1996). Efficient tests for an autoregressive unit root. Econometrica, 64 (4), 813-836. https://doi.org/10.3386/t0130
22. Enders, W. & Lee, J. (2012). The flexible Fourier form and Dickey–Fuller type unit root tests. Economics Letters, 117(1), 196-199. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2012.04.081
23. Fendoğlu, E., & Canpolat Gökce, E. (2019). Türkiye’nin turizm geliri serisinin durağanlığı: Fourier KPSS durağanlık testi. EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, 31, 17‒28. https://doi.org/10.26650/ekoist.2019.31.0020
24. Gündüz, H.İ., Tıraşoğlu, M., &Esenyel, N.M. (2017). Turizm Sektöründe rassal yürüyüş hipotezi kırılgan ekonomiler için geçerli mi. Social Sciences Research Journal, 3, 22-29.
25. Hepsag, A. (2016). Testing convergence of tourism markets: Evidence from seasonal unit roots test. Anatolia, 27(2), 177-188. https://doi.org/10.1080/13032917.2015.1075892
26. Husein, J. (2023). Tourism in ASEAN‐5: A novel panel unit‐root test for shocks persistence with gradual structural breaks and common factors. International Journal of Tourism Research, 26(1), e2602. https://doi.org/10.1002/jtr.2602
27. Im, K. S., Lee, J., & Tieslau, MA (2014). More powerful unit root tests with non-normal errors. In Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt (ss. 315-342), Springer, New York.
28. Katrakilidis, C., Konteos, G., Sariannidis, N., & Manolidou, C. (2017). Investigation of convergence in the tourist markets of Greece. European Research Studies Journal, 20(4A), 707-729. https://www.um.edu.mt/library/oar/handle/123456789/32962
29. Kızılkaya, F. (2021). Turist gelişleri durağan mı? En çok ziyaret edilen 10 ülke için Fourier panel durağanlık testi. Bitlis Eren Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 10(1), 56-62. https://doi.org/10.47130/bitlissos.936430
30. Konat, G., & Han, A. (2023). MINT ülkeleri için turizm gelirlerinin yakınsaması: Doğrusal olmayan panel birim kök testi bulguları. Sosyal Ekonomik Araştırmalar Dergisi, 2(1), 53-65. https://doi.org/10.30976/susead.877921
31. Kurniawati, R., & Ridderstaat, J. (2022). Shock effects on tourism demand cycles to Bali. ASEAN Journal on Hospitality and Tourism, 20(2), 38-52.
32. Kyriazis, N.A., Economou, E.M. (2021). The impacts of geopolitical uncertainty on Turkish Lira during the Erdoğan administration. Defence and Peace Economics, 33(6), 731-750. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2021.1904200
33. Lean, H.H., & Smyth, R. (2009). Asian financial crisis, avian flu and terrorist threats: Are shocks to Malaysian tourist arrivals permanent or transitory?, Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, 14(3), 301-321. https://doi.org/10.1080/10941660903024034
34. Mansour-Ichrakieh, L., & Zeaiter, H. (2019). The role of geopolitical risks on the Turkish economy opportunity or threat. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 50, 101000. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2019.101000
35. Min, J.C., Kung, H.H., & Chang, T. (2019). Testing the structural break of Taiwan inbound tourism markets. Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, 22(2), 117-130. https://ipe.ro/rjef/rjef2_19/rjef2_2019p117-130.pdf
36. Murat, S., Şener, S., & Yılancı, V. (2013). İktisadi krizler, doğal afetler, terör faaliyetleri Türkiye’ye gelen turistler üzerinde etkili mi?. İstanbul Üniversitesi İktisat Fakültesi Mecmuası, 63(1), 1-15. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/8860
37. Narayan, P.K. (2006). Are Australia's tourism markets converging?. Applied Economics, 38(10), 1153-1162. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840500391377
38. Narayan, P.K., & Prasad, A. (2008). Examining the behaviour of visitor arrivals to Australia from twenty different countries: An application of panel unit root tests. Economic Papers: A journal of applied economics and policy, 27(3), 265-271. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1759-3441.2008.tb01042.x
39. Omay, T. (2015). Fractional Frequency Flexible Fourier Form to approximate smooth breaks in unit root testing. Economics Letters, 134, 123–126. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2015.07.010
40. Payne, J.E.., & Nazlioglu, S. (2023). The permanent or transitory nature of shocks to tourism expenditures and receipts: Evidence from new panel stationarity tests with breaks and factors. Tourism Economics, 29(6), 1518-1532. https://doi.org/10.1177/13548166221110988
41. Pehlivan, C., Konat, G., Han, A., & Özbay F. (2023). Is tourism convergence valid in Turkey? Evidence from Furuoka unit root test. Çankırı Karatekin Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 13(1), 209-229. https://doi.org/10.18074/ckuiibfd.1163938
42. Perles-Ribes, J.S., Ramón-Rodríguez, A.B., Izquierdo, L.M., & Martí, M.T.T. (2016). Winners and losers in the Arab uprisings: A Mediterranean tourism perspective. Current Issues in Tourism, 21(16), 1810-1829. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2016.1225697
43. Saleh, A.S.., Verma, R., & Ihalanayake, R. (2010). Are external shocks permanent or transitory? An analysis of visitor arrivals to Thailand, 1-12.
44. Schwert, G.W. (1987). Effects of model specification on tests for unit roots in macroeconomic data. Journal of Monetary Economics, 20(1), 73-103. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(87)90059-6
45. Selim, S., Çelenk, A., & Van, MH (2022). Türkiye’de turizm sektörüne sağlanan teşviklerin turizm talebi üzerindeki etkisi: Yapısal kırılmalı bir analiz. Yönetim ve Ekonomi Dergisi, 29(4), 759-784. https://doi.org/10.18657/yonveek.1065066
46. Smyth, R., Nielsen, I., & Mishra, V. (2009) ‘I’ve been to Bali too’ (and I will be going back): are terrorist shocks to Bali's tourist arrivals permanent or transitory?. Applied Economics, 41(11), 1367-1378. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840601019356
47. Solarin, S.A. (2014). Revisiting the convergence hypothesis of tourism markets: Evidence from South Africa. Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, 8(1), 77-92. https://doi.org/10.1177/0973801013506403
48. Tan, S.H., & Tan, S.K. (2014). Are shocks to Singapore's tourist arrivals permanent or transitory? An application of stationarity test with structural breaks. Current Issues in Tourism, 17(6), 480-486. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2013.822854
49. Tiwari, A.K., Kyophilavong, P., & Albulescu, C.T. (2016). Testing the stationarity of CO2 emissions series in Sub-Saharan African countries by incorporating nonlinearity and smooth breaks. Research in International Business and Finance, 37, 527-540. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2016.01.005
50. Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu (2024). Harcama türlerine göre turizm gideri. https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Kategori/GetKategori?p=egitim-kultur-spor-ve-turizm-105&dil=1
51. Xie, H., Tiwari, A.K., & Chang, T., (2018). Investigating stationarity in tourist arrivals to India using panel KPSS with sharp drifts and smooth breaks. Applied Economics, 5(46), 4985-4998. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2018.1466988
52. Yalçınkaya, Ö., & Yazgan, Ş. (2020). Türkiye’nin turizm piyasalarının yakınsama analizi: Fourier birim kök testlerinden kanıtlar. Üçüncü Sektör Sosyal Ekonomi Dergisi, 55(1), 93-110. https://doi.org/10.15659/3.sektor-sosyal-ekonomi.20.01.1276
53. Verma, R., Saleh, A.S., & Ihalanayake, R. (2011). Do external shocks have a permanent or a transitory effect on Thailand's tourism industry? 2011, 483-491.
54. Zivot, E., & Andrews, D.W.K. (2002). Further evidence on the great crash, the oil-price shock, and the unit-root hypothesis. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 20 (1), 25-44. https://doi.org/10.1198/073500102753410372