THE CYCLICAL DYNAMICS OF CARBON EMISSIONS: A MARKOV-SWITCHING APPROACH FOR TURKIYE

Abstract

This study aims to reveal the responses of carbon emissions to economic business cycles in the Turkish economy by using the Markov-Switching Autoregressive (MSAR) model.. It is frequently emphasized in the literature that carbon emissions exhibit a nonlinear relationship with economic growth and respond asymmetrically to periods of expansion and contraction. In this context, the study analyzes the cyclical components of annual total and per capita carbon emissions and gross domestic product (GDP) for the period 1970-2023. The findings show that carbon emissions increase during periods of economic expansion but do not decrease at the same rate during recessions. The results reveal that the response of emissions to business cycles is asymmetric and that emission growth is positive but less than one during expansion periods. On the other hand, the sensitivity of emissions is negative during economic recession periods and emissions show a more limited decrease compared to the contraction in GDP. These results have important policy implications for Turkiye’s transition to a low-carbon growth strategy. In particular, stricter regulations should be introduced during periods of economic growth and spesific reduction target should be maintained even during periods of economic recession.

Keywords

• Business cycle
• Greenhouse gas emissions
• Markov-switching autoregressive
• Asymmetry

KARBON EMİSYONLARININ DÖNGÜSEL DİNAMİĞİ: TÜRKİYE İÇİN MARKOV-GEÇİŞ YAKLAŞIMI

Abstract

Bu çalışma, karbon emisyonlarının ekonomik iş döngülerine verdiği tepkileri incelemek amacıyla Türkiye ekonomisi için Markov-Switching Otoregresif (MSAR) modelini kullanmaktadır. Karbon emisyonlarının ekonomik büyüme ile doğrusal olmayan bir ilişki sergilediği ve genişleme ile daralma dönemlerine asimetrik tepkiler verdiği literatürde sıkça vurgulanmaktadır. Bu bağlamda, çalışmada 1970-2023 dönemi yıllık toplam ve kişi başına düşen karbon emisyonları ile gayri safi yurtiçi hasılanın (GSYİH) döngüsel bileşenleri analiz edilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular, karbon emisyonlarının ekonomik genişleme dönemlerinde arttığını ancak durgunluk dönemlerinde aynı hızda azalmadığını göstermektedir. Sonuçlar, emisyonların iş döngülerine yönelik tepkisinin asimetrik olduğunu ve genişleme dönemlerinde emisyon büyümesinin pozitif ancak 1’den küçük olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Buna karşılık, ekonomik durgunluk dönemlerinde emisyonların duyarlılığı negatif olup, emisyonlar GSYİH’deki daralmaya kıyasla daha sınırlı bir azalış göstermektedir. Bu sonuçlar, Türkiye’nin düşük karbonlu büyüme stratejisine geçişi açısından önemli politika çıkarımları taşımaktadır. Özellikle, ekonomik büyüme dönemlerinde daha sıkı düzenlemeler getirilmesi ve ekonomik durgunluk dönemlerinde de belirli bir azaltım hedefinin korunması gerekmektedir.

Keywords

• İş döngüsü
• Sera gazı emisyonları
• Markov-switching otoregresif
• Asimetri

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