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ORTA GELİR TUZAĞININ BELİRLEYENLERİ ÜZERİNE BİR DENEME: TAYLAND, TÜRKİYE VE ÇİN ÖRNEĞİ

Year 2016, Volume: 25 Issue: 3, 347 - 360, 30.10.2016

Abstract

Orta gelir tuzağı, 2000’li yıllarda büyüme ve kalkınma literatürüne girmiş ve üzerine farklı yaklaşımlarda bulunulan bir kavramdır. Bir ülkenin, kişi başına düşen milli gelir düzeyinin orta gelir grubunda yer alması, bu ülkenin bir üst gelir grubuna ulaşamaması ve mevcut durumunu koruması orta gelir tuzağı olarak tanımlanmaktadır. Bu çalışmada, Tayland, Türkiye ve Çin için orta gelir tuzağı içinde bulunup bulunmadıkları ve eğer orta gelir tuzağı içindelerse bu durumun hangi faktörlere bağlı olabileceği üzerine bir deneme yapılmaktadır. Seçilmiş üç ülke üzerine yapılacak olan analizde, Vektör hata düzeltme modeli (VECM), Etki-tepki analizi ve Varyans ayrıştırması yönteminden faydalanılarak, kişi başına GSYİH (KBG) ile enflasyon (ENF), mal ve hizmet ticaretinin GSYİH’daki payı (TİC), tarım sektörün GSYİH’daki payı (TAR) ve Gini katsayısı (GINI) gibi ekonomik değişkenler kullanılmaktadır. Çalışmanın sonuç bölümünde ise, KBG ile belirleyenleri arasındaki etki derecesinden yola çıkarak ülkelerin orta gelir uzağından çıkabilmeleri yönünde çeşitli önerilerinde bulunulmaktadır.

References

  • Agénor, P. R. ve Canuto, O. (2015). “Middle-Income Growth Traps”. Research in Economics, 69(4): 641-660. Alçın, S. ve Güner, B. (2015). “Orta Gelir Tuzağı: Türkiye Üzerine Bir Değerlendirme”. Marmara University Journal of Economic & Administrative Sciences, 37(1):27-45 Aoki, M. (2011), “The Five Phases of Economic Development and Institutional Evolution in China, Japan and Korea”, ADBI Working Paper Series, 340, Asian Development Bank Institute, Tokyo. Atalay, R. (2015). “The Education and the Human Capital to Get Rid of the Middle-income Trap and to Provide the Economic Development”. Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences, 174: 969-976. Bozkurt, E., Bedir, S., Özdemir, D. ve Çakmak, E. 2014. “Orta Gelir Tuzağı ve Türkiye Örneği”. Maliye Dergisi, (167):22-39. Bingwen, Z. (2011). ‘’The “Middle Income Trap” and China’s Path to Development: International Experiences and Lessons’’, China Economist, 6(3):16-27. Carnovale, M. (2012), “Developing Countries and the Middle-Income Trap: Predetermined to Fall?” New York University Cai, F. (2012). “Is There a “Middle Income Trap”? Theories, Experiences and Relevance to China. China & World Economy, 20(1): 49-61. Chen, C. ve Dai, L. (2014), “The Middle Income Trap, Branching Deregulation, and Political Influence”, 26 Eylül, New Jersey, http://www.princeton.edu.tr Çaşkurlu, E. ve Arslan, C. B. 2014. “Orta Gelir Tuzağından Çıkışa Odaklanma: Ürün Tuzağı (Ürün Boşluğu) ve Demiryolu Taşımacılık Sektörü”. Maliye Dergisi,167: 71-92. Dünya Bankası, (2016a), World Bank Country and Lending Groups, https://datahelpdesk.worldbank.org/knowledgebase/articles/906519-world-bank-country-and-lending-groups (Erişim Tarihi: 05.10. 2016) Dünya Bankası (2016b), World Development Indicators, http://databank.worldbank.org/data/home.aspx (Erişim Tarihi: 05.05. 2016) Worldbank, (2016) Egawa, A. (2013), “Will income inequality cause a middle-income trap in Asia,” Bruegel Working Paper, 2013/06 Eichengreen, B., Park, D. ve Shin, K. (2011), “When Fast Growing Economies Slow Down: International Evidence and Implications for China”, NBER Working Paper Series, 16919, National Bureau of Economic Reseaarch, March. Eichengreen, B., Park D. ve Shin K.. (2012), “When Fast Growing Economies Slow Down: International Evidence and Implications for China,” Asian Economic Papers, 11:42-87. Jitsuchon, S. (2012). “Thailand in a middle-income trap”, TDRI Quarterly Review, 27(2):13-20. Felipe, J., Abdon, A. ve Kumar, U. (2012), “Tracking the Middle-Income Trap: What Is It, Who Is in It, and Why?”, Levy Economics Institute of Bard College Working Paper, 715, Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, New York. Gill, I. S., Kharas, H. J. ve Bhattasali, D. (2007). An East Asian renaissance: ideas for economic growth. World Bank Publications. Hausmann, R., Pritchett L. ve Rodrik D. (2005) “Growth Accelerations,” Journal of Economic Growth, 10:303-329. Kharas, H. ve Kohli, H. (2011), “What is the Middle Income Trap, Why Do Countries Fall into it, and How Can it Be Avoided?”, Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, 3(3):281-289 Koçak, E. ve Bulut, Ü. (2014) “Orta Gelir Tuzağı: Teorik Çerçeve, Ampirik Yaklaşımlar ve Türkiye Üzerine Ekonometrik Bir Uygulama”, Maliye Dergisi, 167:167-01. Özturk, A. (2015). “Examining The Economic Growth and The Middle-Income Trap from The Perspective of The Middle Class”. International Business Review. IBR: 1208:1-13 Paus, E. (2012), "Confronting the Middle Income Trap: Insights from Small Latecomers", Studies in Comparative International Development, 47(2):115-138. Robertson, P.E. ve Ye, L. (2013), “On the Existence of a Middle Income trap”, University of Western Australia Economics Discussion, Paper, 13-12, Australia. Tho, T.V. (2013), “The Middle-Income Trap: Issues for Members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations”, ADBI Working Paper, 421, Asian Development Bank Institute, Tokyo. Uyanık, C. C. (2015), “Orta Gelir Tuzağı ve Türkiye'nin Konumu Açısından Bir Değerlendirme”, Sosyoekonomi, 23(26):175-186 Woo, W.T. (2012), “China Meets the Middle-Income Trap: The Large Potholes in the Road to Catching-up”, Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, 10(4):313-336 Yılmaz, G. (2015). “Turkish middle income trap and less skilled human capital”. Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, 30(346): 9-36. Zeng, J. ve Fang, Y. (2014), “Between Poverty and Prosperity: China’s Dependent Development and the ‘Middle-Income Trap’”, Third World Quarterly, 35(6):1014-1031 Zhang, L., Yi, H., Luo, R., Liu, C. ve Rozelle, S. (2013). “The human capital roots of the middle income trap: the case of China”. Agricultural Economics, 44(s1):51-162.
Year 2016, Volume: 25 Issue: 3, 347 - 360, 30.10.2016

Abstract

References

  • Agénor, P. R. ve Canuto, O. (2015). “Middle-Income Growth Traps”. Research in Economics, 69(4): 641-660. Alçın, S. ve Güner, B. (2015). “Orta Gelir Tuzağı: Türkiye Üzerine Bir Değerlendirme”. Marmara University Journal of Economic & Administrative Sciences, 37(1):27-45 Aoki, M. (2011), “The Five Phases of Economic Development and Institutional Evolution in China, Japan and Korea”, ADBI Working Paper Series, 340, Asian Development Bank Institute, Tokyo. Atalay, R. (2015). “The Education and the Human Capital to Get Rid of the Middle-income Trap and to Provide the Economic Development”. Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences, 174: 969-976. Bozkurt, E., Bedir, S., Özdemir, D. ve Çakmak, E. 2014. “Orta Gelir Tuzağı ve Türkiye Örneği”. Maliye Dergisi, (167):22-39. Bingwen, Z. (2011). ‘’The “Middle Income Trap” and China’s Path to Development: International Experiences and Lessons’’, China Economist, 6(3):16-27. Carnovale, M. (2012), “Developing Countries and the Middle-Income Trap: Predetermined to Fall?” New York University Cai, F. (2012). “Is There a “Middle Income Trap”? Theories, Experiences and Relevance to China. China & World Economy, 20(1): 49-61. Chen, C. ve Dai, L. (2014), “The Middle Income Trap, Branching Deregulation, and Political Influence”, 26 Eylül, New Jersey, http://www.princeton.edu.tr Çaşkurlu, E. ve Arslan, C. B. 2014. “Orta Gelir Tuzağından Çıkışa Odaklanma: Ürün Tuzağı (Ürün Boşluğu) ve Demiryolu Taşımacılık Sektörü”. Maliye Dergisi,167: 71-92. Dünya Bankası, (2016a), World Bank Country and Lending Groups, https://datahelpdesk.worldbank.org/knowledgebase/articles/906519-world-bank-country-and-lending-groups (Erişim Tarihi: 05.10. 2016) Dünya Bankası (2016b), World Development Indicators, http://databank.worldbank.org/data/home.aspx (Erişim Tarihi: 05.05. 2016) Worldbank, (2016) Egawa, A. (2013), “Will income inequality cause a middle-income trap in Asia,” Bruegel Working Paper, 2013/06 Eichengreen, B., Park, D. ve Shin, K. (2011), “When Fast Growing Economies Slow Down: International Evidence and Implications for China”, NBER Working Paper Series, 16919, National Bureau of Economic Reseaarch, March. Eichengreen, B., Park D. ve Shin K.. (2012), “When Fast Growing Economies Slow Down: International Evidence and Implications for China,” Asian Economic Papers, 11:42-87. Jitsuchon, S. (2012). “Thailand in a middle-income trap”, TDRI Quarterly Review, 27(2):13-20. Felipe, J., Abdon, A. ve Kumar, U. (2012), “Tracking the Middle-Income Trap: What Is It, Who Is in It, and Why?”, Levy Economics Institute of Bard College Working Paper, 715, Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, New York. Gill, I. S., Kharas, H. J. ve Bhattasali, D. (2007). An East Asian renaissance: ideas for economic growth. World Bank Publications. Hausmann, R., Pritchett L. ve Rodrik D. (2005) “Growth Accelerations,” Journal of Economic Growth, 10:303-329. Kharas, H. ve Kohli, H. (2011), “What is the Middle Income Trap, Why Do Countries Fall into it, and How Can it Be Avoided?”, Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, 3(3):281-289 Koçak, E. ve Bulut, Ü. (2014) “Orta Gelir Tuzağı: Teorik Çerçeve, Ampirik Yaklaşımlar ve Türkiye Üzerine Ekonometrik Bir Uygulama”, Maliye Dergisi, 167:167-01. Özturk, A. (2015). “Examining The Economic Growth and The Middle-Income Trap from The Perspective of The Middle Class”. International Business Review. IBR: 1208:1-13 Paus, E. (2012), "Confronting the Middle Income Trap: Insights from Small Latecomers", Studies in Comparative International Development, 47(2):115-138. Robertson, P.E. ve Ye, L. (2013), “On the Existence of a Middle Income trap”, University of Western Australia Economics Discussion, Paper, 13-12, Australia. Tho, T.V. (2013), “The Middle-Income Trap: Issues for Members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations”, ADBI Working Paper, 421, Asian Development Bank Institute, Tokyo. Uyanık, C. C. (2015), “Orta Gelir Tuzağı ve Türkiye'nin Konumu Açısından Bir Değerlendirme”, Sosyoekonomi, 23(26):175-186 Woo, W.T. (2012), “China Meets the Middle-Income Trap: The Large Potholes in the Road to Catching-up”, Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, 10(4):313-336 Yılmaz, G. (2015). “Turkish middle income trap and less skilled human capital”. Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, 30(346): 9-36. Zeng, J. ve Fang, Y. (2014), “Between Poverty and Prosperity: China’s Dependent Development and the ‘Middle-Income Trap’”, Third World Quarterly, 35(6):1014-1031 Zhang, L., Yi, H., Luo, R., Liu, C. ve Rozelle, S. (2013). “The human capital roots of the middle income trap: the case of China”. Agricultural Economics, 44(s1):51-162.
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Details

Journal Section Makaleler
Authors

Harun Bal

Neşe Algan

Müge Manga This is me

Esra Ballı This is me

Publication Date October 30, 2016
Submission Date November 15, 2017
Published in Issue Year 2016 Volume: 25 Issue: 3

Cite

APA Bal, H., Algan, N., Manga, M., Ballı, E. (2016). ORTA GELİR TUZAĞININ BELİRLEYENLERİ ÜZERİNE BİR DENEME: TAYLAND, TÜRKİYE VE ÇİN ÖRNEĞİ. Çukurova Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 25(3), 347-360.