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PETROL FİYATINDAKİ DALGALANMALARIN EKONOMİK KALKINMA ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ: PETROL İHRAÇ EDEN ÜLKELER ÜZERİNE PANEL VERİ ANALİZİ

Year 2024, Volume: 4 Issue: 1, 45 - 63, 30.03.2024
https://doi.org/10.61964/dade.1417263

Abstract

Petrol, günümüzde petrol ithal ve ihraç eden ülkeler için hala önemini korumakla birlikte petrol fiyatlarındaki dalgalanmalar tüm ülkeleri yakından etkilemektedir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, petrol fiyatlarındaki dalgalanmaların petrol ihraç eden Arap ülkelerinin ekonomik kalkınması üzerindeki etkilerini panel veri analizi yöntemiyle araştırmaktır. Çalışmada 1999-2020 yılları dönemini kapsayan yıllık veriler kullanılarak petrol ihraç eden 12 Arap ülkesi (Bahreyn, Kuveyt, Ürdün, Umman, Katar, Suudi Arabistan, Birleşik Arap Emirlikleri, Irak, Libya, Yemen, Mısır, Tunus) üzerinde araştırma yapılmıştır. Bu amaçla, öncelikle verilerin doğal logaritması alınarak panel durağanlık testi yapılmıştır. Sonrasında Panel Regresyon Tahmin Yöntemi (PDOLS) ve VAR Granger Nedensellik Testi uygulanmıştır. Analiz sonuçlarına göre değişkenler arasında eş bütünleşme ilişkisi bulunmuş ve aynı zamanda kısa ve uzun dönemli ilişkiler tespit edilmiştir. Petrol fiyatının kişi başına düşen GSYİH, beklenen yaşam suresi ve okuma yazma oranın bir nedeni olduğu sonucuna varılmıştır. Ayrıca çalışmadan elde edilen önemli bir sonuç ise petrol fiyatı ile ekonomik kalkınma arasındaki ilişkinin “kişi başı reel GSYİH” ile “petrol fiyatı” arasında olmasıdır. Yani petrol fiyatındaki dalgalanma, bu ülkelerde yaşayan insanların gelirlerini doğrudan etkilemektedir.

References

  • Aktuğ, S., Dağ, M., & Star, H. R. (2019). The impact of oil price on economic growth: An investigation on Iraq economy. Research Studies Anatolia Journal, 2(6), 273-285. https://doi.org/10.33723/rs.580739
  • Alabdulwahab, S. (2021). The linkage between oil and non-oil gdp in Saudi Arabia. Economies, 9(202), 2-22. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies9040202.
  • Al Rasasi, M. H., John H. Q., & Bander K. A. (2019). Oil revenues and economic growth in Saudi Arabia. International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, 5(3), 49–55. https://doi.org/10.32861/ijefr.53.49.55
  • Alkhathlan, K. A. (2013). Contribution of oil in economic growth of Saudi Arabia, Applied Economics Letters, 20(4), 343-348. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2012.70331020
  • Al-Sheikh, H., & Erbas, N. (2012). The oil curse and labour markets: The case of Saudi Arabia, (Working Paper No.697), Economic Research Forum. 1-27.
  • Arıkan, A. N. (2008). Amerika Birleşik Devletlerindeki mali kriz ve petrol fiyatlarındaki değişimler: Nedenleri ve sonuçları. Maliye Bakanlığı Strateji Geliştirme Başkanlığı.
  • Aydın F., & Şahin L. (2012). Küresel krizlerin petrol tüketimi ve petrol fiyatları üzerindeki etkileri, 2. Turgut Özal Uluslararası Ekonomi ve Siyaset Kongresi.
  • Berument, M. H., Ceylan, N. B., & Doğan, N. (2010). The impact of oil price shocks on the economic growth of selected MENA countries. The Energy Journal, 31(1), 149-176. https://www.jstor.org/stable/41323274
  • Breusch, T., & Pagan, A. (1980). The lagrange multiplier test and its applications to model specification in econometrics. Review of Economic Studies, 47(1), 239-253. https://doi.org/10.2307/2297111
  • British Petroleum (2022, Ocak 12). Energy Outlook 2022 Edition. https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/energy-outlook/bp-energy-outlook-2022.pdf
  • Charfeddine, L., & Barkat, K. (2020). Short and long-run asymmetric effect of oil prices and oil and gas revenues on the real GDP and economic diversification in oil-dependent economy. Energy Economics, 86(5), 1-15. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2020.104680
  • Demir, A. (1993). Enerji ve çevre ilişkileri. Ankara Üniversitesi S.B.F. Dergisi, 48(1), 35-46.
  • Demiral, M., Bal, H., & Akça, E. E. (2016). Petrol gelirleri ve ekonomik büyüme: seçilmiş petrol zengini gelişmekte olan ülkeler üzerine bir panel veri analizi, Sosyoekonomi, 24(27), 85-102. https://doi.org/10.17233/se.01775
  • Dreger, C., & Rahmani, T. (2014). The impact of oil revenues on the iranian economy and the gulf states (Discussion Papers, No: 8079). IZA Institute of Labor Economics. https://www.iza.org/publications/dp/8079/the-impact-of-oil-revenues-on-the-iranian-economy-and-the-gulf-states
  • Ekodialog.com (2023, Ekim 10). Az gelişmiş ülkelerde okuryazarlık oranı. https://www.ekodialog.com/az-gelismis-ulkeler/azgelismis-ulkelerde-okuryazar-orani.html/
  • Elmi, Z. M., & Jahadi, M. (2011). Oil price shocks and economic growth: Evidence from OPEC and OECD. Australian Journal of Basic and Applied Sciences, 5(6), 627-635.
  • Emami, K., & Adibpour, M. (2012). Oil income shocks and economic growth in Iran. Economic Modelling, 29(5), 1774-1779. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2012.05.035
  • Ercevit, A., Çetin, M., & Yücel, A. G. (2018). Türki cumhuriyetlerinde sağlık harcamalarının belirleyicileri: Bir panel veri analizi. Akademik Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi, 10(19), 318-334. https://doi.org/10.20990/kilisiibfakademik.407522
  • Gökçe, C. (2014). Önemli bir enerji girdisi olan petrolün ekonomik kalkınma sürecindeki rolü. Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 16(1), 143-153. https://doi.org/10.5578/jeas.7253
  • Granger, C. W. J. (1969). Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica, 37, 424-438. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912791
  • Hamdi, H., & Sbia, R. (2013). Dynamic relationship between oil revenues, government spending and economic growth in an oil-dependent economy. Economic Modelling, [spescial issue] (35), 118–125. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2013.06.043
  • Hamilton, J. D. (2012). Oil prices, exhaustible resources, and economic growth (No. w17759). National Bureau of Economic Research.
  • Hoffman, R. (2012). Estimates of oil price elasticity. International Association for Energy Economics.19(1) 19-23.
  • Jabbour, M. G. (2018). The impact of oil prices on the economies of selected countries in the Mena region. https://www.jstor.org/stable/41323274
  • Kamaci, A., & Göktaş, S. (2020). Petrol fiyatları ile ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Türkiye örneği. Bartın Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 11(22), 547-556. https://doi.org/10.47129/bartiniibf.797897
  • Karagöl, E., Erbaykal, B., & Ertuğrul H. M. (2007). Türkiye’de ekonomik büyüme ile elektrik tüketimi ilişkisi: sınır testi yaklaşımı. Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 8(1), 72-80.
  • Kerim H. U., & Ferej, M. M. (2020). Analysis of the impact of oil price fluctuations on the general budget for the period 1990-2018 in Iraq. Journal of the University of Garmian, 6(4), 193-206.
  • Moshiri, S. (2015). Asymmetric effect of oil-price shocks on economic growth of oil-exporting countries: The role of instution. OPEC Energy Review. 39(2), 222-246. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2006763
  • Moshiri, S. (2015). Asymmetric effects of oil price shocks in oil‐exporting countries: the role of institutions. OPEC Energy Review, 39(2), 222-246. https://doi.org/10.1111/opec.12050
  • Nuhu, A. B. (2017). The impact of oil price instability on economic growth:a case of Nigeria. [Unpublished Master Thesis]. Ear East University.
  • Öztürk, S., & Saygın, S. (2017). 1973 petrol krizinin ekonomiye etkileri ve stagflasyon olgusu. Balkan Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 6(12), 1-12.
  • Pedroni P (2001). Purchasing power parity tests in cointegrated panels. Revue of Economics and Statistics. (83), 727-731. https://doi.org/10.1162/003465301753237803
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General diagnostic tests for cros section dependence in panels. (Discussion Paper No. 1240). IZA Institute of Labor Economics. https://docs.iza.org/dp1240.pdf
  • Pesaran, H. M., & Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing slope homogeneity in large panels. Journal of Econometrics, (142), 50-93. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2007.05.010
  • Sayed, M. A. (2016). The impact of oil prices on the economic growth and development in the MENA countries.[Unpublished PhD Thesis]. Cairo University.
  • Sizer, L. (2023). Petrol fiyatları ile reel döviz kuru arasındaki ilişki: Fourier adl eşbütünleşme analizi. Bingöl Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 7(2), 185-198. https://doi.org/10.33399/biibfad.1365608
  • Taşman, C., E., (1949). Petrolün tarihi, MTA Dergisi, 39, 9-13. https://dergi.mta.gov.tr/issue/show/39.html
  • Tıraş, H. H., & Özbek, S. (2020). OECD ülkelerinde doğuşta yaşam beklentisinin belirleyicilerinin ekonometrik analizi. Business & Management Studies: An International Journal, 8(3), 2893–2923. https://doi.org/10.15295/bmij.v8i3.1542
  • Victoria, A. & Yoshino, N. (2010). Impact of world oil prices on an energy exporting economy including monetary policy. (Working Paper Series No: 828). Asian Development Bank Institute. https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/411171/adbi-wp828.pdf
  • Yıldırım, C., & Dağdemir, Ö. (2018). Türkiye’de ekonomik büyüme ve elektrik tüketimi ilişkisi. Sakarya İktisat Dergisi, 7(4), 57-76.
  • Yücesan, M., & Yağış, O. (2020). Ekonomik özgürlüğe etki eden faktörler: Yükselen piyasa ekonomileri için panel veri analizi. Çankırı Karatekin Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 10(2), 691-711. https://doi.org/10.18074/ckuiibfd.606047

IMPACT OF OIL PRICE FLUCTUATIONS ON ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: APANEL DATA ANALYSIS ON ARABIC COUNTRIES

Year 2024, Volume: 4 Issue: 1, 45 - 63, 30.03.2024
https://doi.org/10.61964/dade.1417263

Abstract

Today, although oil still maintains its importance for countries that import and export oil, fluctuations in oil prices closely affect all countries. This study aim is to investigate the effects of oil price fluctuations on the economic development of oil-exporting Arab countries with a panel data analysis method. In the study, research was conducted on 12 oil-exporting Arab countries (Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Libya, Yemen, Egypt and Tunisia) using annual data including the period 1999-2020. For this purpose, firstly, the panel stationarity test was carried out by converting the natural logarithm of the data. Afterwards, the Panel Regression Estimation Method (PDOLS) and VAR Granger Causality Test were implemented. According to the analysis results, a cointegration relationship was found among the variables and short- and long-term relationships were also determined. It is concluded that the oil price is a reason for GDP per capita, life expectancy and literacy rate. In addition, an important result obtained from the study is that the relationship between oil price and economic development is on "real GDP per capita" and "oil price". In other words, the fluctuations in oil prices directly affects the incomes of people living in these countries.

References

  • Aktuğ, S., Dağ, M., & Star, H. R. (2019). The impact of oil price on economic growth: An investigation on Iraq economy. Research Studies Anatolia Journal, 2(6), 273-285. https://doi.org/10.33723/rs.580739
  • Alabdulwahab, S. (2021). The linkage between oil and non-oil gdp in Saudi Arabia. Economies, 9(202), 2-22. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies9040202.
  • Al Rasasi, M. H., John H. Q., & Bander K. A. (2019). Oil revenues and economic growth in Saudi Arabia. International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, 5(3), 49–55. https://doi.org/10.32861/ijefr.53.49.55
  • Alkhathlan, K. A. (2013). Contribution of oil in economic growth of Saudi Arabia, Applied Economics Letters, 20(4), 343-348. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2012.70331020
  • Al-Sheikh, H., & Erbas, N. (2012). The oil curse and labour markets: The case of Saudi Arabia, (Working Paper No.697), Economic Research Forum. 1-27.
  • Arıkan, A. N. (2008). Amerika Birleşik Devletlerindeki mali kriz ve petrol fiyatlarındaki değişimler: Nedenleri ve sonuçları. Maliye Bakanlığı Strateji Geliştirme Başkanlığı.
  • Aydın F., & Şahin L. (2012). Küresel krizlerin petrol tüketimi ve petrol fiyatları üzerindeki etkileri, 2. Turgut Özal Uluslararası Ekonomi ve Siyaset Kongresi.
  • Berument, M. H., Ceylan, N. B., & Doğan, N. (2010). The impact of oil price shocks on the economic growth of selected MENA countries. The Energy Journal, 31(1), 149-176. https://www.jstor.org/stable/41323274
  • Breusch, T., & Pagan, A. (1980). The lagrange multiplier test and its applications to model specification in econometrics. Review of Economic Studies, 47(1), 239-253. https://doi.org/10.2307/2297111
  • British Petroleum (2022, Ocak 12). Energy Outlook 2022 Edition. https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/energy-outlook/bp-energy-outlook-2022.pdf
  • Charfeddine, L., & Barkat, K. (2020). Short and long-run asymmetric effect of oil prices and oil and gas revenues on the real GDP and economic diversification in oil-dependent economy. Energy Economics, 86(5), 1-15. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2020.104680
  • Demir, A. (1993). Enerji ve çevre ilişkileri. Ankara Üniversitesi S.B.F. Dergisi, 48(1), 35-46.
  • Demiral, M., Bal, H., & Akça, E. E. (2016). Petrol gelirleri ve ekonomik büyüme: seçilmiş petrol zengini gelişmekte olan ülkeler üzerine bir panel veri analizi, Sosyoekonomi, 24(27), 85-102. https://doi.org/10.17233/se.01775
  • Dreger, C., & Rahmani, T. (2014). The impact of oil revenues on the iranian economy and the gulf states (Discussion Papers, No: 8079). IZA Institute of Labor Economics. https://www.iza.org/publications/dp/8079/the-impact-of-oil-revenues-on-the-iranian-economy-and-the-gulf-states
  • Ekodialog.com (2023, Ekim 10). Az gelişmiş ülkelerde okuryazarlık oranı. https://www.ekodialog.com/az-gelismis-ulkeler/azgelismis-ulkelerde-okuryazar-orani.html/
  • Elmi, Z. M., & Jahadi, M. (2011). Oil price shocks and economic growth: Evidence from OPEC and OECD. Australian Journal of Basic and Applied Sciences, 5(6), 627-635.
  • Emami, K., & Adibpour, M. (2012). Oil income shocks and economic growth in Iran. Economic Modelling, 29(5), 1774-1779. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2012.05.035
  • Ercevit, A., Çetin, M., & Yücel, A. G. (2018). Türki cumhuriyetlerinde sağlık harcamalarının belirleyicileri: Bir panel veri analizi. Akademik Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi, 10(19), 318-334. https://doi.org/10.20990/kilisiibfakademik.407522
  • Gökçe, C. (2014). Önemli bir enerji girdisi olan petrolün ekonomik kalkınma sürecindeki rolü. Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 16(1), 143-153. https://doi.org/10.5578/jeas.7253
  • Granger, C. W. J. (1969). Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica, 37, 424-438. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912791
  • Hamdi, H., & Sbia, R. (2013). Dynamic relationship between oil revenues, government spending and economic growth in an oil-dependent economy. Economic Modelling, [spescial issue] (35), 118–125. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2013.06.043
  • Hamilton, J. D. (2012). Oil prices, exhaustible resources, and economic growth (No. w17759). National Bureau of Economic Research.
  • Hoffman, R. (2012). Estimates of oil price elasticity. International Association for Energy Economics.19(1) 19-23.
  • Jabbour, M. G. (2018). The impact of oil prices on the economies of selected countries in the Mena region. https://www.jstor.org/stable/41323274
  • Kamaci, A., & Göktaş, S. (2020). Petrol fiyatları ile ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Türkiye örneği. Bartın Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 11(22), 547-556. https://doi.org/10.47129/bartiniibf.797897
  • Karagöl, E., Erbaykal, B., & Ertuğrul H. M. (2007). Türkiye’de ekonomik büyüme ile elektrik tüketimi ilişkisi: sınır testi yaklaşımı. Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 8(1), 72-80.
  • Kerim H. U., & Ferej, M. M. (2020). Analysis of the impact of oil price fluctuations on the general budget for the period 1990-2018 in Iraq. Journal of the University of Garmian, 6(4), 193-206.
  • Moshiri, S. (2015). Asymmetric effect of oil-price shocks on economic growth of oil-exporting countries: The role of instution. OPEC Energy Review. 39(2), 222-246. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2006763
  • Moshiri, S. (2015). Asymmetric effects of oil price shocks in oil‐exporting countries: the role of institutions. OPEC Energy Review, 39(2), 222-246. https://doi.org/10.1111/opec.12050
  • Nuhu, A. B. (2017). The impact of oil price instability on economic growth:a case of Nigeria. [Unpublished Master Thesis]. Ear East University.
  • Öztürk, S., & Saygın, S. (2017). 1973 petrol krizinin ekonomiye etkileri ve stagflasyon olgusu. Balkan Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 6(12), 1-12.
  • Pedroni P (2001). Purchasing power parity tests in cointegrated panels. Revue of Economics and Statistics. (83), 727-731. https://doi.org/10.1162/003465301753237803
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General diagnostic tests for cros section dependence in panels. (Discussion Paper No. 1240). IZA Institute of Labor Economics. https://docs.iza.org/dp1240.pdf
  • Pesaran, H. M., & Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing slope homogeneity in large panels. Journal of Econometrics, (142), 50-93. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2007.05.010
  • Sayed, M. A. (2016). The impact of oil prices on the economic growth and development in the MENA countries.[Unpublished PhD Thesis]. Cairo University.
  • Sizer, L. (2023). Petrol fiyatları ile reel döviz kuru arasındaki ilişki: Fourier adl eşbütünleşme analizi. Bingöl Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 7(2), 185-198. https://doi.org/10.33399/biibfad.1365608
  • Taşman, C., E., (1949). Petrolün tarihi, MTA Dergisi, 39, 9-13. https://dergi.mta.gov.tr/issue/show/39.html
  • Tıraş, H. H., & Özbek, S. (2020). OECD ülkelerinde doğuşta yaşam beklentisinin belirleyicilerinin ekonometrik analizi. Business & Management Studies: An International Journal, 8(3), 2893–2923. https://doi.org/10.15295/bmij.v8i3.1542
  • Victoria, A. & Yoshino, N. (2010). Impact of world oil prices on an energy exporting economy including monetary policy. (Working Paper Series No: 828). Asian Development Bank Institute. https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/411171/adbi-wp828.pdf
  • Yıldırım, C., & Dağdemir, Ö. (2018). Türkiye’de ekonomik büyüme ve elektrik tüketimi ilişkisi. Sakarya İktisat Dergisi, 7(4), 57-76.
  • Yücesan, M., & Yağış, O. (2020). Ekonomik özgürlüğe etki eden faktörler: Yükselen piyasa ekonomileri için panel veri analizi. Çankırı Karatekin Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 10(2), 691-711. https://doi.org/10.18074/ckuiibfd.606047
There are 41 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Applied Macroeconometrics
Journal Section Research Articles
Authors

İlham Akdağ 0000-0001-8608-8928

Early Pub Date March 19, 2024
Publication Date March 30, 2024
Submission Date January 10, 2024
Acceptance Date January 22, 2024
Published in Issue Year 2024 Volume: 4 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Akdağ, İ. (2024). PETROL FİYATINDAKİ DALGALANMALARIN EKONOMİK KALKINMA ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ: PETROL İHRAÇ EDEN ÜLKELER ÜZERİNE PANEL VERİ ANALİZİ. Dicle Akademi Dergisi, 4(1), 45-63. https://doi.org/10.61964/dade.1417263

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