IMPORTANCE OF INITIAL VALUE IN EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING METHODS

Abstract

ÜSTEL DÜZLEŞTİRME YÖNTEMLERİNDE BAŞLANGIÇ DEĞERİNİN ÖNEMİ

Öz

Üstel düzleştirme çeşitli zaman serisi verileri için yaygın olarak kullanılan popüler bir tahmin yöntemidir. Üstel düzleştirme ile ilgili iki önemli problem mevcuttur. Birincisi, düzleştirme sabitinin değerine karar vermek. İkincisi de başlangıç değerini belirlemektir. Bu çalışmada başlangıç değerinin önemi ve tahmin üzerindeki etkisi araştırılmış ve araştırmacılara yardımcı olmak amacıyla bir çapraz tablo oluşturulmuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler: Üstel Düzleştirme, Basit Üstel Düzleştirme, Başlangıç Değeri.

IMPORTANCE OF INITIAL VALUE IN EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING METHODS

Abstract

Exponential smoothing is a very popular forecasting method for a wide range of time series data. There are two problems with exponential smoothing. First one is choosing smoothing constant. And second one is how to get initial value. In this paper importance of initial value and effects of it on the forecast is investigated and a cross table is constructed to help forecasters.

Keywords: Exponential Smoothing, Simple Exponential Smoothing, Initial Value.

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