İŞSİZLİK VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME İLİŞKİSİNDE ASİMETRİ

Abstract

Okun kanununun geçerliliğini araştıran ampirik çalışmaların çoğu işsizlikteki değişim ile reel çıktı büyümesi arasında simetrik bir ilişkinin olduğunu varsaymaktadır. Oysa reel çıktı büyümesinin işsizlik üzerindeki etkisi büyümenin daralma ve genişleme dönemlerinde farklı olabilir. Okun kanununda asimetriyi ifade eden bu önerme son dönem çalışmalarda doğrulanmaktadır. Çalışmada, Türkiye ekonomisi için Okun ilişkisinin simetrik olup olmadığı 1950-2007 dönemi yıllık zaman serisi verileri kullanılarak araştırılmıştır. Asimetrik ilişkiyi test etmek amacıyla, TAR ve M-TAR modellerini içeren ko-entegresyon analizi kullanılmıştır. Çalışmanın bulguları, Türkiye ekonomisinde Okun kanunun uzun dönemde geçerli ve ilişkinin asimetrik olduğunu göstermiştir.

Keywords

• Okun Kanunu, Ko-Entegrasyon, Asimetri, TAR Modeli, M-TAR Modeli

ASYMMETRY IN THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN UNEMPLOYMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH

Abstract

Most of the empirical papers researching the validity of Okun’s law have been assumed a symmetric relationship between change of unemployment and real output growth. However, the effect of real output growth on unemployment may be different in growth cycles expansion and contraction periods. This assumption which assumes a asymmetry in Okun’s law has been verified in the recent studies. In the study, whether Okun’s relationship is symmetric or not has been investigated for Turkish economy in the period 1950-2007 using annual time series data. Cointegration analyses including TAR and M-TAR models have been used to test the asymmetric relationship. The findings of the study have shown that Okun’s law is valid in the long run and this relationship is asymmetric for the Turkish economy

Keywords

• Okun’s Law, Co-integration, Asymmetry, TAR model, M-TAR model

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