İŞSİZLİK VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME İLİŞKİSİNDE ASİMETRİ

Öz

Okun kanununun geçerliliğini araştıran ampirik çalışmaların çoğu işsizlikteki değişim ile reel çıktı büyümesi arasında simetrik bir ilişkinin olduğunu varsaymaktadır. Oysa reel çıktı büyümesinin işsizlik üzerindeki etkisi büyümenin daralma ve genişleme dönemlerinde farklı olabilir. Okun kanununda asimetriyi ifade eden bu önerme son dönem çalışmalarda doğrulanmaktadır. Çalışmada, Türkiye ekonomisi için Okun ilişkisinin simetrik olup olmadığı 1950-2007 dönemi yıllık zaman serisi verileri kullanılarak araştırılmıştır. Asimetrik ilişkiyi test etmek amacıyla, TAR ve M-TAR modellerini içeren ko-entegresyon analizi kullanılmıştır. Çalışmanın bulguları, Türkiye ekonomisinde Okun kanunun uzun dönemde geçerli ve ilişkinin asimetrik olduğunu göstermiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Okun Kanunu, Ko-Entegrasyon, Asimetri, TAR Modeli, M-TAR Modeli

ASYMMETRY IN THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN UNEMPLOYMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH

Öz

Most of the empirical papers researching the validity of Okun’s law have been assumed a symmetric relationship between change of unemployment and real output growth. However, the effect of real output growth on unemployment may be different in growth cycles expansion and contraction periods. This assumption which assumes a asymmetry in Okun’s law has been verified in the recent studies. In the study, whether Okun’s relationship is symmetric or not has been investigated for Turkish economy in the period 1950-2007 using annual time series data. Cointegration analyses including TAR and M-TAR models have been used to test the asymmetric relationship. The findings of the study have shown that Okun’s law is valid in the long run and this relationship is asymmetric for the Turkish economy

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Okun’s Law, Co-integration, Asymmetry, TAR model, M-TAR model

Kaynakça

1. BULUTAY, T. (1995). Employment, unemployment and wages in Turkey. Ankara: International Labour Office.
2. CHAN, K. S. (1993). Consistency and limiting distribution of the least squares estimator of a threshold autogressive model. The Annals of Statistics, 21, 520-533. ss.
3. COURTNEY, H. G. (1991). The Beveridge curve and Okun’s law: a re-estimation of fundemental macroeconomic relationships in the United States. Doktora tezi, Massachusetts Institute of Thechnology.
4. DICKEY, D.A., FULLER, W.A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association,74, 427-431. ss.
5. ENDERS, W. (2004). Applied Econometric Time Series. 2nd ed, USA: John Willey&Sons.
6. ENDERS, W., GRANGER, C. W. J. (1998). Unit-Root tests and asymmetric adjustment with an example using the term structure of interest rate, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 16, 304-311. ss.
7. ENDERS, W., SIKLOS, P.L. (2001). Cointegration and threshold adjustment. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 19, 166-176. ss.
8. ENGLE, R. F., GRANGER, C. W. J. (1987). Cointegration and error correction: representation, estimation and testing. Econometrica, 55, 251-276. ss.

9. HARIS, R., SILVERSTONE, B. (2000). Asimetric adjustment of unemployment and output in New Zealand: rediscovering Okun’s law. University of Waikato Working Paper, 2/00.
10. HARIS, R., SILVERSTONE, B (2001). Testing for asymmetry in Okun’s law : a cross- country comparision. Economic Bullentin, 5(2), 1-13. ss.
11. ILO, (2007). Global employment trends 2007. [Erişim adresi]: ,[Erişim tarihi: 26.06.2009].
12. ILO, (2008). Global employment trends 2008. [Erişim adresi]: ,[Erişim tarihi: 26.06.2009]. İstatistiksel Göstergeler. (2008). 1923-2007. Ankara: TÜİK.
13. MAYES, D. G., VIREN, M. (2000). Asymmetry and problem of aggregation in the Euro area. Bank of Finland Discussion Paper, 11.
14. McLEOD, A., LI, V. (1983). Diognostic checking ARMA time series models using squared residual correlations. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 4, 269-273. ss.
15. OKUN, A. M. (1962). Potential GNP: it’s measurement and signifiicance, Cowless Foundation.
16. PRACHOWNY, M.F.L. (1993). Okun’s law: theoretical foundations and revised estimates. Review of Economics and Statistics, 75, 331-336. ss.
17. SILVAPULLE, P., MOOSA, I. A., SILVAPULLE M. J. (2004). Asymmetry in Okun’s law. The Canadian Journal of Economics, 37(2), 353-374. ss.
18. VIREN, M. (2001). The Okun curve is non-linear. Economic Letters, 70, 253-257. ss.