MODERNİZASYON TEORİSİ BAĞLAMINDA DEMOKRASİNİN SOSYAL GEREKSİNİMLERİ: RIDGE REGRESYON YAKLAŞIMINDAN AMPİRİK BULGULAR

Abstract

Genel olarak sosyo-ekonomik kalkınma ve demokrasi arasındaki ilişkinin altını çizen mevcut teorik literatürle birlikte çalışma, küresel ölçekte ekonomik kalkınma ve demokrasi arasındaki ilişkiyi incelemektedir. Çalışmada Lipset (1959)’in ufuk açıcı çalışmasıyla birlikte karşılaştırmalı siyaset içerisinde de önemli bir yer edinen modernizasyon teorisi çerçevesinde ekonomik kalkınmanın- artan kişi başına gelir- demokrasi için sosyal bir gereklilik olup olmadığı konusu veri setine ulaşılabilirlik baz alınarak 2018 yılı, 118 ülke verisi için analiz edilmektedir. Ridge regresyon yöntemi ile gerçekleştirilen analiz sonucunda ekonomik kalkınma, demokrasiyi anlamlı ve pozitif olarak etkilemektedir. Elde edilen bu bulgu Lipset hipotezini destekler nitelikte olmanın yanı sıra belirli yapısal koşulların istikrarlı demokrasiye elverişli olduğunu göstermektedir. Diğer taraftan siyasi istikrar, hükümet etkinliği ve endüstri (katma değer) değişkenlerinin demokrasiyi pozitif yönde etkilediği; askeri harcamalar, mal ve hizmet ihracatı, kentleşme ve doğal kaynak gelirlerinin ise demokrasiyi negatif yönde etkilediği tespit edilmiş ve elde edilen bulguların gerekçeleri tartışılmıştır.

Keywords

• Demokrasi
• Ekonomik Kalkınma
• Lipset Hipotezi
• Ridge Regresyon

THE SOCIAL NEEDS OF DEMOCRACY IN THE CONTEXT OF MODERNIZATION THEORY: EMPIRICAL FINDINGS FROM RIDGE REGRESSION APPROACH

Abstract

Along with the current theoretical literature underlining the relationship between socio-economic development and democracy in general, the article examines the relationship between economic development and democracy on a global scale.In the article, the subject of whether economic development - increasing per capita income - is a social necessity for democracy within the framework of the modernization theory, which has an important place in comparative politics with Lipset's (1959) seminal work, is considered the availability of the data set, for 2018, 118 country data are analyzed. As a result of the analysis carried out with the Ridge regression method, economic development affects democracy significantly and positively. This finding, in addition to supporting the Lipset hypothesis, shows that certain structural conditions are conducive to stable democracy. On the other hand, political stability, government efficiency, and industry (value-added) variables affect democracy positively; it has been determined that military expenditures, exports of goods and services, urbanization, and natural resource revenues affect democracy negatively and the reasons for the findings are discussed.

Keywords

• Democracy
• Economic Development
• Lipset Hypothesis
• Ridge Regression

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