MODERNİZASYON TEORİSİ BAĞLAMINDA DEMOKRASİNİN SOSYAL GEREKSİNİMLERİ: RIDGE REGRESYON YAKLAŞIMINDAN AMPİRİK BULGULAR

Öz

Genel olarak sosyo-ekonomik kalkınma ve demokrasi arasındaki ilişkinin altını çizen mevcut teorik literatürle birlikte çalışma, küresel ölçekte ekonomik kalkınma ve demokrasi arasındaki ilişkiyi incelemektedir. Çalışmada Lipset (1959)’in ufuk açıcı çalışmasıyla birlikte karşılaştırmalı siyaset içerisinde de önemli bir yer edinen modernizasyon teorisi çerçevesinde ekonomik kalkınmanın- artan kişi başına gelir- demokrasi için sosyal bir gereklilik olup olmadığı konusu veri setine ulaşılabilirlik baz alınarak 2018 yılı, 118 ülke verisi için analiz edilmektedir. Ridge regresyon yöntemi ile gerçekleştirilen analiz sonucunda ekonomik kalkınma, demokrasiyi anlamlı ve pozitif olarak etkilemektedir. Elde edilen bu bulgu Lipset hipotezini destekler nitelikte olmanın yanı sıra belirli yapısal koşulların istikrarlı demokrasiye elverişli olduğunu göstermektedir. Diğer taraftan siyasi istikrar, hükümet etkinliği ve endüstri (katma değer) değişkenlerinin demokrasiyi pozitif yönde etkilediği; askeri harcamalar, mal ve hizmet ihracatı, kentleşme ve doğal kaynak gelirlerinin ise demokrasiyi negatif yönde etkilediği tespit edilmiş ve elde edilen bulguların gerekçeleri tartışılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Demokrasi
• Ekonomik Kalkınma
• Lipset Hipotezi
• Ridge Regresyon

THE SOCIAL NEEDS OF DEMOCRACY IN THE CONTEXT OF MODERNIZATION THEORY: EMPIRICAL FINDINGS FROM RIDGE REGRESSION APPROACH

Öz

Along with the current theoretical literature underlining the relationship between socio-economic development and democracy in general, the article examines the relationship between economic development and democracy on a global scale.In the article, the subject of whether economic development - increasing per capita income - is a social necessity for democracy within the framework of the modernization theory, which has an important place in comparative politics with Lipset's (1959) seminal work, is considered the availability of the data set, for 2018, 118 country data are analyzed. As a result of the analysis carried out with the Ridge regression method, economic development affects democracy significantly and positively. This finding, in addition to supporting the Lipset hypothesis, shows that certain structural conditions are conducive to stable democracy. On the other hand, political stability, government efficiency, and industry (value-added) variables affect democracy positively; it has been determined that military expenditures, exports of goods and services, urbanization, and natural resource revenues affect democracy negatively and the reasons for the findings are discussed.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Democracy
• Economic Development
• Lipset Hypothesis
• Ridge Regression

Kaynakça

1. Acar, T., Topdağ, D. (2020). Seçilmiş OPEC ve MENA ülkelerinde doğal kaynak bağımlılığı ve kurumsal gelişmenin ekonomik kalkınma üzerine etkisi: Panel kantil regresyon yaklaşımı. Yıldırım, Zerife (Ed.) Ekonometrik Modeller I içinde (95-115). İstanbul: Gazi Yayınevi
2. Acemoglu, D. ve Robinson, J. A. (2006). Economic origins of dictatorship and democracy, New York: Cambridge University Press.
3. Acemoglu, D., Simon, J., Robinson, J. A. ve Pierre, Y. (2009). Reevaluating the modernization hypothesis. Journal of Monetary Economics, 56(8), 1043–1058.
4. Acemoglu, D, Simon, J., Robinson, J. A. ve Pierre Y. (2008). Income and democracy. American Economic Review, 98(3), 808–842.
5. Restrepo , P. ve Robinson, J. A. (2014). Democracy does cause growth, NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
6. Arat, Z. F. (1991). Democracy and human rights in developing country. USA: Lynne Rienner Publishers.
7. Auty, R.M. (2001). Resource abundance and economic development. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
8. Barro, R. J. (1996). Democracy and growth. Journal of Economic Growth, 1(1), 1-27. Barro, R. J. (1999). Determinants of democracy. Journal of Political Economy, 107(6), 158-183.

9. Bhagwati, J. (1966). The economics of underdeveloped countries. New York: McGraw Hill.
10. Bilge, M. (2011). Türkiye'de demokrasi kültürü: Siyaset ve toplum, Türkiye Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 15(3), 49-60.
11. Carr, E.H. (2020). Yirmi yıl krizi (1919-1939). İstanbul: Bilgi Üniversitesi Yayınları.
12. Chenoweth, E. ve Stephan, M. J. (2011). Why civil resistance works: The strategic logic of nonviolent conflict. New York: Columbia University Press.
13. Read, C.B. ve Belsle D.A. (1994). Condition diagnostics, collinearity and weak data in regression. Biometrics, 50(1), 314.
14. Conrad, J. ve Kim, H.C. vd. (2013). Narrow interests and military resource allocation in autocratic regimes, Journal of Peace Research, 50(6), s. 737-750.
15. Deger, S. ve Sen, S. (1995). Military expenditure and developing countries, Handbook of Defense Economics I, (Ed: Keith Hartley and Todd Sandler), Amsterdam: Elsevier Science B.V.
16. Democracy Index (2019). A year of democratic setbacks and popular protest, A report by The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)
17. Doucouliagos,H. ve Ulubaşoğlu, M.A. (2008, January). Democracy and economic growth: A Meta-Analysis. American Journal of Political Science, 52(1), 61–83.
18. Drury, A. C., Krieckhaus, J. ve Lusztig, M. (2006). Corruption, democracy and economic growth. International Political Science Review, 27(2), pp. 121-136.
19. Galor, O. ve Omer, M. (2006). Das Human-Kapital: A theory of the demise of the class structure. The Review of Economic Studies, 73(1), 85-117.
20. Gerring,J., Bond, P., Barndt, W,T. ve Moreno, C. (2005, April). Democracy and economic growth: A historical perspective. World Politics. 57(3). 323-364.
21. Ghardallou, W. S. (2020). Democracy and economic growth: A literature review. Journal of the Knowledge Economy, 11(5), 982-1002.
22. Haan, J. D. ve Siermann, C. L.J. (1995). New evidence on the reletionship between democracy and economic growth. Public Choice, 86, 175-198.
23. Hansel, M. ve Ruhnke, S. (2017). A revolution of democratic warfare? Assessing regime type and capability-based explanations of military transformation processes, International Journal , 72(3), 356-379
24. Helliwell, J. F., (1994). Empirical linkages between democracy and economic growth, British Journal of Political Science, 24(2), 225-248
25. Hoerl, A.E. ve Kennard, R.W. (1970). Ridge regression: Biased estimation for nonorthogonal problems. Technometrics, 12, 55–67.
26. Huntington, S.R (1968). Political order in changing societies. New Haven: Yale University Press
27. James, G., Witten, D., Hastie, T. ve Tibshirani, R. (2013). An introduction to statistical learning: With applications in R. New York: Springer
28. Kasarda, J. D. ve Shih, W. F. P. (1977). Optimal bias in Ridge regression approaches to multicollinearity. Sociological Methods & Research, 5(4), 461-470.
29. Koçak, E. ve Uzay, N. (2017). Türkiye’de demokrasi ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Ampirik bir araştırma. Yönetim ve Ekonomi, 24(3), 705-723.
30. Krieckhaus, J. (2006, April). Democracy and economic growth: How regional context influences regime effects. British Journal of Political Science, 36(2), 317-340.
31. Kuhn, M. ve Johnson, K. (2013). Applied predictive modeling. New York: Springer.
32. Kurzman, C., Werum, R. ve Burkhart, R. E. (2002). Democracy's effect on economic growth: A pooled time series analysis, 1951-1980. Studies in Comparative International Development, 37(1), 3-33.
33. Kutner, M. H. (2005). Applied linear statistical models 4ed: McGraw-Hill Irwin
34. Leblang, D. A. (1997). Political democracy and economic growth: Pooled cross-sectional and time series evidence. British Journal of Political Science. 27(3). 453-466.
35. Leite, C. ve Weidmann, J. (1999). Does mother nature corrupt? Natural resources, corruption, and economic growth, IMF Working Paper, WP/99/85 .
36. Lin, B. ve Liu, K. (2017). Energy substitution effect on China’s heavy industry: Perspectives of a translog production function and Ridge regression. Sustainability, 9(11), 1892.
37. Lindblom, C. E. (1977). Politics and markets: The World’s political economic systems. New York: Basic Books Inc.
38. Lindert, P. H. (2003,June). Voice and growth: Was churchill right? Journal of Economic History 63, 315-350.
39. Lıpset S.M. (1994). The social requisites of democracy revisited: 1993 presidential address, American Sociological Review , 59(1), 1-22
40. Lipset, S.M. (1959). Some social requisites of democracy: Economic development and political legitimacy, American Political Science Review, 53(1), 69-105
41. Lusztig, M., Drury, C. A. ve Krieckhaus, J. (2006). Corruption, democracy, and economic growth. International Political Science Review, 27(2), 121-136.
42. Lutz, J. M. (2007). Democracy and free trade in Europe between the wars. The International Trade Journal, 21(1), 53-83.
43. Rabiul, İ. (2018). Wealth inequality, democracy and economic freedom. Journal of Comparative Economics, 46(4), 920-935.
44. Przeworski, A., Alvarez, M. E., Cheibub, J. A. ve Limongi, F. (2000). Democracy and development political institutions and well-being in the world. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
45. Przeworski, A. ve Limongi, F. (1997). Modernization: Theories and facts, World Politics, 49 (2), 155-183.
46. Ross, M. (2001). Does oil hinder democracy. World Politics, 53, 325–61.
47. Sachs. J. D. ve Warner, A. M. (1995a). Natural resource abundance and economic growth, NBER Working Paper, No. 5398.
48. Saatçioğlu, C. ve Karaca, O. (2015). İktisadi Kalkınmanın Demokrasi Üzerindeki Etkisi: Panel Veri Analizi. Ataturk University Journal of Economics & Administrative Sciences, 29(4).
49. Salahodjaev, R. (2015, May 16). Democracy and economic growth: The role of intelligence incross-country regressions. Intelligence, 50, 228-234.
50. Schumpeter, J. A. (1942) Capitalism, socialism and democracy. New York: Harper & Brothers.
51. Shieh, J. , Lai, C. ve Chang, W. (2002) . The impact of military burden on long-run growth and welfare . Journal of Development Economics , 68: 443 - 454 .
52. Solarin, S. A. ve Bello, M. O. (2019). Interfuel substitution, biomass consumption, economic growth, and sustainable development: Evidence from Brazil. Journal of Cleaner Production, 211, 1357-1366.
53. Tan, Alexander C. ve Heo, U. (2001, July). Democracy and economic growth: A Causal Analysis. Comparative Politics, 33(4), 463-473.
54. Taner,A. (2015).Demokrasi,hesap verme sorumluluğu ve hükümet modelleri, Uludağ Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 34(1),71-92.
55. Thorn, R. (1968). Per capita income as a measure of economic development. Journal of Economics, 28(2), 206-216.
56. Wucherpfennig, J. ve Deutsch, F. (2009). Modernization and democracy: theories and evidence revisited, Living Reviews in Democracy, 1, 1- 9.
57. Yardımcı- Geyikçi, Ş. ve Çil, U. (2019). Modernleşme teorisini yeniden düşünmek: Ekonomik kalkınma ve demokrasi ilişkisine eleştirel bir bakış. OPUS–Uluslararası Toplum Araştırmaları Dergisi, 11(18), 2996-3022.