TÜRKİYE’DE TURİZM GELİRLERİNİN EKONOMİK BÜYÜMEYE ETKİSİNİN TESTİ : YAPISAL KIRILMA VE NEDENSELLİK ANALİZİ

Year 2006, Volume: 7 Issue: 2, 162 - 171, 01.07.2006

Nilgün Çil Yavuz

Abstract

Bu çalışmada Türkiye'de 1992:Q1- 2004:Q4 dönemindeki turizm gelirindeki artışın ekonomik büyümeye etkisi araştırılmaktadır. Geleneksel birim kök testinin Augmented Dickey Fuller yanı sıra, yapısal kırılmanın varlığının tespiti için, Zivot ve Andrews'in 1992 birim kök testi kullanılmıştır. Zivot ve Andrews'in test sonuçları, ADF testinin aksine, gayri safi yurtiçi hasıla ve turizm değişkenlerinin trend durağan olduğunu göstermektedir. Standart Granger nedensellik testi sonuçları ve Toda-Yamamoto 1995 yaklaşımına göre, turizm gelirleri ile iktisadi büyüme arasında nedensellik ilişkisi yoktur.

Keywords

Turizm Geliri, Ekonomik Büyüme, Yapısal Kırılma, Nedensellik

TEST FOR THE EFFECT OF TOURISM RECEIPTS ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TURKEY : STRUCTURAL BREAK AND CAUSALITY ANALYSIS

Abstract

This study investigates the causal relations between tourism growth and economic growth in Turkey over the 1992:Q1-2004:Q4 period. In this study, in addition to the conventional unit root test Augmented Dickey-Fuller , Zivot and Andrews’s 1992 unit root test is employed to find out whether there is a structural break or not. Results of Zivot and Andrews test show that Gross Domestic Product and tourism variables are trend stationary on the contrary Augmented DickeyFuller test. According to Standart Granger causality test results and TodaYamamoto 1995 approach, there is not causality relation between tourism receipts and economic growth

Keywords

Tourism receipts, Economic Growth, Structural break, Causality

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