Kaldor Büyüme Modelinin Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler İçin Sınanması: Panel Veri Analizlerinden Bulgular

Yıl 2019, Cilt: 20 Sayı: 2, 31 - 50, 01.07.2019

Ömer Tuğsal Doruk

Öz

Kaldor 1966 tarafından büyümenin lokomotifi olarak sanayi üretimi gösterilmektedir. Kaldor’un temel varsayımlarına göre ekonomik büyümenin ana göstergesi sanayileşmedir. Dolayısıyla sanayi üretimi, ekonomik büyümenin motoru olarak adlandırılmaktadır KEG-Kaldorian Engine of Growth . Kaldor’a göre ekonomik büyüme için tarımsal üretimden sanayileşmeye doğru bir kayma olması gerekmektedir. Çalışmada Kaldor’un büyüme modeli Panel VAR analizi vasıtasıyla 118 ülke için 1990-2016 yılları arasında etki tepki analizi, nedensellik analizi ve varyans hata tahmin ayrıştırması çerçevesinde incelenmiştir. Etki tepki analizinde elde edilen sonuçlara göre gelişmekte olan ülkeler için sanayileşme, ekonomik büyümenin üzerinde önemli düzeyde etkiye sahipken, bu etkinin uzun vadede kalıcı olmadığı görülmektedir. Panel Granger nedensellik testi sonuçlarına göre sanayileşmeden ekonomik büyümeye bir nedensellik ilişkisi ve büyüme ve tarım sektörü arasında iki taraflı bir nedensellik ilişkisi olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Panel varyans hata ayrıştırma analizi sonuçları da KEG’i destekler niteliktedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Sanayiye Dayalı Büyüme, Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler, Panel VAR analizi, Kaldor’un Büyüme Modeli

Examining Kaldorian Growth Model for Developing Countries: Findings from Panel Data Analyses

Öz

Industrial production is denoted as an engine for growth by Kaldor 1966 . According to Kaldor, the main indicator of economic growth is industrialization. Thus, industrial production is defined as an engine of growth KEG-Kaldorian Engine of Growth . There should be a shift from agricultural production to industrial production for economic growth in the Kaldorian growth model. In this paper, the Kaldorian growth model is examined for 118 developing countries between 1990 and 2016 by using impulse-response analysis, causality analysis, and variance decomposition analysis which are based on Panel VAR analysis. The obtained findings show that industrial production has a significant effect on economic growth, however, this effect is not persistent in the long run according to the impulse-response analysis results

Anahtar Kelimeler

Industry-led Growth, Developing Countries, Panel VAR analysis, Kaldorian Growth Model

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