Foreign Direct Investment and Productivity Nexus in Turkiye’s Manufacturing Industry: A Sectoral Analysis (2009-2022)

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and productivity in Türkiye’s manufacturing industry, focusing on 14 sub-sectors from 2009 to 2022. The analysis aims to evaluate the impact of both current and lagged FDI on productivity dynamics using standard panel data, co-integration analysis, Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS), Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS), and a Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to estimate short and long-term effects. In the short term, standard panel models show productivity has a positive relationship with current FDI inflows and per capita personnel costs, and a negative relationship with the turnover index. However, no significant relationship was found with lagged FDI. The Panel ARDL model confirms these dynamics, identifying a statistically significant positive FDI impact in seven of the fourteen sectors, highlighting sectoral heterogeneity. Long-term analysis reveals a different dynamic. While no direct relationship exists between current FDI and productivity, lagged FDI inflows positively impact sectoral performance. This finding is robustly confirmed by the Panel ARDL model, which indicates a stable long-run relationship via a significant error correction term. Furthermore, per capita personnel costs and the turnover index show positive long-term effects. These findings emphasize the need for strategic, sector-specific policies. The varied impact of FDI suggests a need to distinguish between high-absorption sectors that readily benefit and those requiring foundational capacity building to maximize FDI’s contribution to sustainable productivity growth.

Keywords

• Foreign direct investment
• Productivity
• Panel data analysis
• Co-integration analysis
• Autoregressive distributed lag analysis

Türkiye İmalat Sanayisinde Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırım ve Verimlilik İlişkisi: Sektörel Bir Analiz (2009-2022)

Abstract

Bu çalışma, 2009-2022 yılları arasında Türkiye’nin imalat sanayisinde doğrudan yabancı yatırım (DYY) girişleri ile verimlilik arasındaki ilişkiyi, 14 imalat alt sektörüne odaklanarak incelemektedir. Analiz, mevcut ve gecikmeli DYY’nin verimlilik dinamikleri üzerindeki etkisini değerlendirmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Kısa ve uzun dönem etkileri tahmin etmek için panel veri tahmini, eşbütünleşme analizi, FMOLS ve DOLS yöntemleri uygulanmıştır. Kısa dönemde, verimlilik ile DYY girişleri ve kişi başına personel maliyetleri arasında pozitif bir ilişki bulunurken, ciro endeksi ile negatif bir ilişki tespit edilmiştir. Gecikmeli DYY, ihracat-ithalat karşılama oranı ve ticari mal alımları ile anlamlı bir ilişki bulunmamıştır. Uzun dönem analizinde, DYY ile verimlilik arasında doğrudan bir ilişki tespit edilmemiştir; ancak, gecikmeli DYY girişlerinin sektörel performansı olumlu etkilediği görülmüştür. Ayrıca, kişi başına personel maliyetleri, ciro endeksi ve ticari mal alımları pozitif etkiler gösterirken, ihracat-ithalat karşılama oranı farklı sonuçlar sunmaktadır. Bulgular, DYY’nin sürdürülebilir verimlilik artışına katkısını maksimize etmek için stratejik sektörel politikalara ihtiyaç duyulduğunu vurgulamaktadır.

Keywords

• Doğrudan yabancı yatırım
• Verimlilik
• Panel veri analizi
• Eşbütünleşme analizi
• Gecikmesi dağıtılmış otoregresif model analizi.

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