Avrupa Birliği Ülkelerinde Ekonomik Büyüme ve Çevresel Bozulma İlişkisi: Çevresel Kuznets Eğrisi Temelli Panel Veri Analizi

Abstract

Küresel düzeyde sürdürülebilir kalkınma tartışmalarının önem kazandığı son yıllarda, ekonomik büyümenin çevresel etkileri akademik gündemin odağında yer almaktadır. Bu bağlamda, çalışma 2004–2024 döneminde Avrupa Birliği (AB) ülkeleri için Dünya Bankası verilerinden yararlanarak ekonomik büyüme ile çevresel bozulma arasındaki dinamik etkileşimi incelemekte; analiz, Çevresel Kuznets Eğrisi hipotezinin teorik temelleri üzerine inşa edilmektedir. Çalışmada milli gelir büyümesi, milli gelir büyümesinin karesi, enerji tüketimi, ticaret açıklığı, karbondioksit (CO₂) emisyonları ve doğrudan yabancı yatırımlardan oluşan temel makroekonomik değişkenleri içeren bir panel veri yapısı kullanılmıştır. AB ülkeleri arasında gözlenen güçlü ekonomik ve çevresel etkileşimler nedeniyle, analizde yatay kesit bağımlılığı dikkate alan ve daha sağlam standart hatalar sağlayan Driscoll–Kraay tahmincisi kullanılmıştır. Bulgular, GDPG katsayısının pozitif, GDPG² katsayısının negatif ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı olmasıyla, CO₂ emisyonları üzerinde ÇKE’nin öngördüğü ters-U biçimli ilişkinin geçerli olduğunu göstermektedir. Ayrıca enerji tüketimi ve dışa açıklık CO₂ emisyonlarını artırıcı ve anlamlı etkilere sahipken, FDI değişkeni istatistiksel olarak anlamsız bulunmuştur. Sonuçlar, AB’de sürdürülebilir kalkınma hedeflerine ulaşmak için enerji verimliliğinin yükseltilmesi, yenilenebilir kaynakların teşviki ve ticarette çevresel standartların güçlendirilmesi gerektiğine işaret etmektedir.

Keywords

• Ekonomik büyüme
• Karbon emisyonu
• Panel veri analizi
• Kuznets eğrisi
• Driscoll-Kraay yöntemi

The Relationship Between Economic Growth and Environmental Degradation in European Union Countries: A Panel Data Analysis Based on the Environmental Kuznets Curve

Abstract

In recent years, as discussions on sustainable development have gained importance at the global level, the environmental impacts of economic growth have been at the center of the academic agenda. In this context, the study examines the dynamic interaction between economic growth and environmental degradation for European Union (EU) countries during the period 2004–2024, using World Bank data; the analysis is built on the theoretical foundations of the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis. Due to the strong economic and environmental interactions observed among EU countries, the Driscoll–Kraay estimator, which accounts for cross-sectional dependence and provides more robust standard errors, was used in the analysis. The findings indicate that the inverse-U-shaped relationship predicted by the CGE model on CO₂ emissions is valid, with the GDPG coefficient being positive, the GDPG² coefficient being negative, and both statistically significant. Furthermore, while energy consumption and openness to trade have significant and increasing effects on CO₂ emissions, the FDI variable was found to be statistically insignificant. The results indicate that in order to achieve sustainable development goals in the EU, it is necessary to improve energy efficiency, promote renewable sources, and strengthen environmental standards in trade.

Keywords

• Economic growth
• carbon emissions
• panel data analysis
• Driscoll-Kraay method

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