Türkiye’de Politik İstikrarsızlık-Doğrudan Yabancı Sermaye Yatırımları İlişkisi: Bir Nedensellik Analizi

Abstract

Bu çalışma, Türkiye'de politik istikrarsızlık ile doğrudan yabancı sermaye yatırımları (DYSY) arasındaki ilişkinin yönünü ve niteliğini Hatemi-J (2012) asimetrik nedensellik testi kullanarak incelemektedir. Çalışmada, politik istikrarsızlık göstergesi olarak PRS Group tarafından geliştirilen Uluslararası Ülke Risk Rehberi (ICRG) politik risk endeksi, doğrudan yabancı sermaye yatırımlarını temsilen ise Türkiye'ye yönelik DYSY girişleri kullanılmıştır. Analiz sonuçları, değişkenler arasında asimetrik bir nedensellik ilişkisinin bulunduğunu göstermektedir. Buna göre politik istikrarsızlıktaki azalışlar DYSY girişlerini artırırken, politik istikrarsızlıktaki artışların DYSY üzerinde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir azaltıcı etkisi tespit edilememiştir. Ayrıca DYSY girişlerindeki azalışların politik istikrarsızlığı artırdığı belirlenmiştir. Bu bulgular, politik istikrar ile DYSY arasındaki ilişkinin tek yönlü olmadığını, karşılıklı ve asimetrik bir etkileşim içerdiğini göstermektedir. Çalışma, Türkiye literatüründe çoğunlukla ihmal edilen DYSY'nin politik istikrar üzerindeki etkisini ampirik olarak ortaya koyması bakımından literatüre özgün katkı sunmakta, yatırım ortamının güçlendirilmesine yönelik politika önerileri geliştirmektedir.

Keywords

• Politik istikrarsızlık
• Doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar
• Hatemi-J asimetrik nedensellik testi

The Relationship Between Political Instability and Foreign Direct Investment in Türkiye: A Causality Analysis

Abstract

This study examines the direction and nature of the relationship between political instability and foreign direct investment (FDI) in Türkiye using the Hatemi-J (2012) asymmetric causality test. The study uses the International Country Risk Guide (ICRG) political risk index developed by the PRS Group as an indicator of political instability, and FDI inflows to Türkiye as a representation of foreign direct investment. The analysis results show an asymmetric causal relationship between the variables. Accordingly, decreases in political instability increase FDI inflows, while increases in political instability do not have a statistically significant reducing effect on FDI. Furthermore, it was determined that decreases in FDI inflows increase political instability. These findings indicate that the relationship between political stability and FDI is not unidirectional but involves a reciprocal and asymmetric interaction. This study makes a unique contribution to the literature by empirically revealing the impact of FDI on political stability, a topic largely neglected in Turkish literature, and develops policy recommendations for strengthening the investment environment.

Keywords

• Political instability
• Foreign direct ınvestment
• Hatemi-J asymmetric causality test

References

1. Anjum, S., Farooq, M. U., Batool, A., & Kazmi, S. J. (2024). The effects of political instability on foreign direct investment (FDI) in Pakistan. Social Science Review Archives, 2(2), 1879–1892.
2. Arbatli, E. C. (2011). Economic Policies and FDI Inflows to Emerging Market Economies, IMF Working Paper 11/192.
3. Artan, S., & Hayaloğlu, P. (2015). Doğrudan yabancı sermaye yatırımlarının kurumsal belirleyicileri: OECD ülkeleri örneği. Ege Akademik Bakış, 15(4), 551-564.
4. Asiedu, E. (2002). On the determinants of foreign direct investment to developing countries: Is Africa different?. World Development, 30(1), 107-119.
5. Asiedu, E. (2006). Foreign direct investment in Africa: The role of natural resources, market size, government policy, institutions and political instability. The World Economy, 29(1), 63-77.
6. Asteriou, D., & Price, S. (2001). Political instability and economic growth: UK time series evidence. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 48(4), 383–399.
7. Atıcı Ustalar, S., & Şanlısoy, S. (2020). The impact of foreign direct investment on innovation performance: Evidence from a nonlinear ARDL approach. İzmir İktisat Dergisi, 35(1), 77-89.
8. Bak, D., & Moon, C. (2016). Foreign direct investment and authoritarian stability. Comparative Political Studies, 49(14), 1998-2037.

9. Bal, H., & Akça, E. E. (2016). Doğrudan Yabancı Sermaye Yatırımlarının Belirleyicileri: Seçilmiş Doğu Asya ve Pasifik Ülkelerinden Ampirik Bulgular. Sosyoekonomi, 24(30), 91-112.
10. Balan, F. (2019). The effects of political and financial risks on foreign direct investments to the MENAT countries. Theoretical and Applied Economics, XXVI(2[619]), 121–138.
11. Bardakçı, E., & Gür B. (2025). Politik istikrar ve doğrudan yabancı yatırımların Türkiye ve BRICS+ ülkelerinde uluslararası ticarete etkisinin incelenmesi. Business & Management Studies: An International Journal, 13(3), 1065-1072.
12. Ben Jelili, R. (2023). How does political risk matter for foreign direct investment into Arab economies?. Middle East Development Journal, 15(2), 291–310.
13. Bergougui, B., & Murshed, S. M. (2023). A sectoral analysis of institutional quality and foreign direct investment in MENA countries: does sector type matter?, Review of World Economics, 159(4), 987-1012.
14. Biglaiser G., Lu, K. L., & Hunter, L. Y. (2025). Political risk and sectoral analysis: Foreign direct investment, terrorism, and extractive industries in the developing World. The Extractive Industries and Society, 22, 1-10.
15. Brada, J. C., Kutan, A. M., & Yigit, T. M. (2006). The effects of transition and political instability on foreign direct investment inflows: Central Europe and the Balkans. Economics of Transition, 14(4), 649-680.
16. Buckley, P. J., & Casson, M. C. (1976). The Future of the Multinational Enterprise. London: Macmillan Press.
17. Burger, M., Ianchovichina, E., & Rijkers, B. (2016). Risky business: Political instability and sectoral greenfield foreign direct investment in the Arab world. World Bank Economic Review, 30(2), 306-331.
18. Busse, M., & Hefeker, C. (2007). Political risk, institutions and foreign direct investment. European Journal of Political Economy, 23(2), 397-415.
19. Bussmann, M., (2010). Foreign direct investment and militarized international conflict. Journal of Peace Research, 47(2), 143–153.
20. Çelik, M. Y., Gökmen, D. (2024). Faiz oranı, döviz kuru ve politik istikrarsızlığın doğrudan yabancı yatırımlara etkisi: Türkiye örneği, Quantrade Journal of Complex Systems in Social Sciences, 6(2), 173-182.
21. Demir, M. A., Bilik, M., & Aydın, Ü. (2018). Effects of political and socio-economic indicators on foreign direct investments: Stochastic frontier analysis. İnsan Ve Toplum Bilimleri Araştırmaları Dergisi, 7(2), 1078-1096.
22. Dunning, J. H. (1977). Trade, location of economic activity and the MNE: A search for an eclectic approach. In B. Ohlin, P. O. Hesselborn & P. M. Wijkman (Eds.), The International Allocation of Economic Activity (pp. 395-418). Macmillan.
23. Dunning, J. H. (1980). Toward an eclectic theory of international production: some empirical tests. Journal of International Business Studies, 11(1), 9–31.
24. Dunning, J. H. (1988). The eclectic paradigm of international production: A restatement and some possible extensions. Journal of International Business Studies, 19(1), 1–31.
25. Fatehi,K., & Safizadeh, M.H. (1994). The effect of sociopolitical instability on the flow of different types of foreign direct investment, Journal of Business Research, 31(1), 65-73.
26. Gissinger, R., & Gleditsch, N.P. (1999). Globalization and conflict: Welfare, distribution, and political unrest. Journal of World-Systems Research, 5(2), 325–365.
27. Globerman, S., & Shapiro, D. (2002). Global foreign direct investment flows: The role of governance infrastructure. World Development, 30(11), 1899–1919.
28. Granger, C. W. J. (1969). Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica, 37(3), 424-438.
29. Hacker, R. S., & Hatemi-J, A. (2006). Tests for causality between integrated variables using asymptotic and bootstrap distributions: Theory and application. Applied Economics, 38(13), 1489-1500.
30. Harms, P., & Ursprung, H. W. (2002). Do civil and political repression really boost foreign direct investments?. Economic Inquiry, 40(4), 651–663.
31. Hatemi-J, A. (2012). Asymmetric causality tests with an application. Empirical Economics, 43, 447–456.
32. Hymer, S. H. (1976). The International Operations of National Firms: A Study of Direct Foreign Investment. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
33. Jensen N. M. (2003). Democratic governance and multinational corporations: Political regimes and inflows of foreign direct investment. International Organization, 57(3), 587–616.
34. Jensen, N., & Mc Gillivray, F. (2005). Federal institutions and multinational investors: federalism, government credibility, and foreign direct investment. International Interactions, 31(4), 303-325.
35. Karagöz, D. K. (2007). Türkiye’de doğrudan yabanci yatirim girişlerini belirleyen faktörler: 1970 – 2005. Yaşar Üniversitesi E-Dergisi, 2(8), 929-948.
36. Kızılkaya, O., & Kızılkaya, O. (2021). Türkiye’de politik istikrarın doğrudan yabancı yatırımlara etkisi: Fourier ADL eşbütünleşme testinden kanıtlar. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 60, 571-587.
37. Kiptoo, J. (2024). The influence of political stability on foreign direct investment (FDI). International Journal of Developing Country Studies, 6(1), 74–86.
38. Konat, G. (2022). Impact of political risk on foreign direct investment with fourier approach: The case of Türkiye. Alphanumeric Journal, 10(2), 187-196.
39. Krifa-Schneider, H., & Matei, I. (2010). Business Climate, political risk and FDI in developing countries: Evidence from panel data. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 2(5), 54-65.
40. Kutbay, H., & Altunakar Mercan, Ş. (2025). Ekonomik ve politik riskin doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar (DYY) üzerindeki etkisi. Sosyoekonomi, 33(66), 517-545.
41. Lensink, R., Hermes, N., & Murinde, V. (2000), Capital flight and political risk. Journal of International Money and Finance, 19, 73-92.
42. Li Q, Resnick A. (2003). Reversal of fortunes: Democracy, property rights and foreign direct investment inflows to developing countries. International Organization, 57(1), 175–211
43. Mihalache-O’Keef, A. S. (2018). Whose greed, whose grievance, and whose opportunity? Effects of foreign direct investments (FDI) on internal conflict. World Development, 106, 187–206.
44. Nassour, A., Meftah, S., & Mirani, S. H. (2020). Does political risk affect foreign direct investment inflows? Empirical evidence from selected MENA economies. Estudios de Economía Aplicada, 38(3), 1-13.
45. Newman,C., Rand, J., & Tarp, F. (2015). Technology transfers, foreign investment and productivity spillovers. European Economic Review, 76, 168-187.
46. North, D. C. (1990). Institutions, institutional change and economic performance. In: Political Economy of Institutions and Decisions, Cambridge University Press.
47. Okara, A. (2023). Does foreign direct investment promote political stability? Evidence from developing economies. Economic Modelling, 123, 1-19.
48. Özşahin, Ş., Üçler, G., & Uysal, D. (2022). Jeopolitik risk ve yolsuzluğun doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar için önemi: Türkiye için ampirik bulgular. Bingöl Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 6(2), 257-286.
49. Pandya, S. S. (2016). Political economy of foreign direct investment: Globalized production in the twenty-first century. The Annual Review of Political Science, 19, 455-475.
50. PRS Group. (n.d.). International Country Risk Guide (ICRG) Methodology. PRS Group.
51. Schneider, F., & Frey, B. S. (1985). Economic and political determinants of foreign direct investment. World Development, 13(2), 161–175.
52. Şanlısoy, S. (2010). Politik istikrarsızlık - ekonomik süreç politikaları etkileşimi. Sosyoekonomi, 13(13), 191-214.
53. Tandırcıoğlu, H., & Özen, A. (2003). Geçiş ekonomilerinde doğrudan yabancı sermaye yatırımları. Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 5(4), 105-129.
54. Topaloğlu, E. E., & Korkmaz, T. (2021). Politik riskin doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar ve pay piyasası endeks getirilerine etkisi: G7 ülkeleri üzerine bir uygulama. Verimlilik Dergisi, 1, 97-115.
55. Udomkerdmongkol, M., & Morrissey, O. (2008). Political regime, private investment, and foreign direct investment in developing countries. WIDER Research Paper, No. 2008/109, The United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER), Helsinki.
56. Walsh, J. P., & Yu, J. (2010). Determinants of foreign direct investment: A Sectoral and institutional approach. IMF Working Paper, 187.
57. Yağış, O., & Kılıç, C. (2024). Terörizmin doğrudan ve dolaylı (portföy) yabancı sermaye yatırımları üzerindeki etkisi: Seçilmiş gelişmekte olan ve gelişmiş ülkeler için panel veri analizi. Girişimcilik ve Kalkınma Dergisi, 18(2), 65-82.
58. Yıldız, B., & Şanlı, O. (2022). Politik, ekonomik ve finansal risklerin doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar üzerindeki etkisi: Türkiye örneği. Uluslararası Ekonomi Ve Yenilik Dergisi, 8(2), 219-248.
59. Yılmaz, A. (2024). Do geopolitical risks and political stability drive foreign direct investments? New evidence from dynamic panel CS-ARDL model. Ekonomi Politika Ve Finans Araştırmaları Dergisi, 9(1), 61-87.