Türkiye’de Politik İstikrarsızlık-Doğrudan Yabancı Sermaye Yatırımları İlişkisi: Bir Nedensellik Analizi

Öz

Bu çalışma, Türkiye'de politik istikrarsızlık ile doğrudan yabancı sermaye yatırımları (DYSY) arasındaki ilişkinin yönünü ve niteliğini Hatemi-J (2012) asimetrik nedensellik testi kullanarak incelemektedir. Çalışmada, politik istikrarsızlık göstergesi olarak PRS Group tarafından geliştirilen Uluslararası Ülke Risk Rehberi (ICRG) politik risk endeksi, doğrudan yabancı sermaye yatırımlarını temsilen ise Türkiye'ye yönelik DYSY girişleri kullanılmıştır. Analiz sonuçları, değişkenler arasında asimetrik bir nedensellik ilişkisinin bulunduğunu göstermektedir. Buna göre politik istikrarsızlıktaki azalışlar DYSY girişlerini artırırken, politik istikrarsızlıktaki artışların DYSY üzerinde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir azaltıcı etkisi tespit edilememiştir. Ayrıca DYSY girişlerindeki azalışların politik istikrarsızlığı artırdığı belirlenmiştir. Bu bulgular, politik istikrar ile DYSY arasındaki ilişkinin tek yönlü olmadığını, karşılıklı ve asimetrik bir etkileşim içerdiğini göstermektedir. Çalışma, Türkiye literatüründe çoğunlukla ihmal edilen DYSY'nin politik istikrar üzerindeki etkisini ampirik olarak ortaya koyması bakımından literatüre özgün katkı sunmakta, yatırım ortamının güçlendirilmesine yönelik politika önerileri geliştirmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Politik istikrarsızlık
• Doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar
• Hatemi-J asimetrik nedensellik testi

The Relationship Between Political Instability and Foreign Direct Investment in Türkiye: A Causality Analysis

Öz

This study examines the direction and nature of the relationship between political instability and foreign direct investment (FDI) in Türkiye using the Hatemi-J (2012) asymmetric causality test. The study uses the International Country Risk Guide (ICRG) political risk index developed by the PRS Group as an indicator of political instability, and FDI inflows to Türkiye as a representation of foreign direct investment. The analysis results show an asymmetric causal relationship between the variables. Accordingly, decreases in political instability increase FDI inflows, while increases in political instability do not have a statistically significant reducing effect on FDI. Furthermore, it was determined that decreases in FDI inflows increase political instability. These findings indicate that the relationship between political stability and FDI is not unidirectional but involves a reciprocal and asymmetric interaction. This study makes a unique contribution to the literature by empirically revealing the impact of FDI on political stability, a topic largely neglected in Turkish literature, and develops policy recommendations for strengthening the investment environment.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Political instability
• Foreign direct ınvestment
• Hatemi-J asymmetric causality test

Kaynakça

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