Research Article
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PUBLIC OPINION FORMATION AND ELECTIONS: A NETWORK ANALYSIS ON 24th JUNE 2018 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION AND 27th TERM GENERAL ELECTION

Year 2018, Volume: 6 Issue: 2, 1248 - 1276, 29.09.2018
https://doi.org/10.19145/e-gifder.429113

Abstract

In Turkey's political history, elections which are undoubtedly the most important element of the democracy has
often been controversial. Turkey has also adopted a national multiparty presidential system with Constitutional
Amendment made in April 2017. While discussions of the referendum are ongoing, the Nationalist Movement Party
(MHP) Chairman Devlet Bahçeli, one of the opposition leaders and the political parties supporting the system, has
made an early election call, despite the expected 2019 to move to the related system. Following the negotiations, it
was decided to go to the early elections on 24th June, 2018. It is wondered that as a citizenship task, how the voters'
behavior will evolve. Because, great importance is given to the activities of forming public opinion before the
elections, and public opinion surveys can also manipulate the voters while keeping their pulse. However, today the
situation of the public network formed in social networks which are based on new media, is also important. 

Therefore, in this study, public opinion formation, public opinion polls and the public network which is formed on
social media for related election will be analyzed.

References

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  • BORICK, P. C.; LACHAPELLE, E. ve RABE, G. B. (2011). Climate Compared: Public Opinion on Climate Change in the United States and Canada, Recent Issues in Governance Studies.
  • CHUNG, S. ve LEE, S. (2016). “Crisis Communication Strategy on Social Media and the Public’s Cognitive and Affective Responses: A Case of Foster Farms Salmonella Outbreak”, Communication Research Reports, 33(4), p.341–348.
  • COLLIER, P. ve HOEFFLER, A. (2009). Democracy’s Achilles Heel or, How to Win an Election without Really Trying, CSAE WPS/2009-08, Centre for the Study of African Economies, Department of Economics, Oxford.
  • DONSBACH, W. (2014). Public Opinion Polls, In: Gianpietro Mazzoleni (ed.), Encyclopedia of Political Communication. Malden et al: Wiley (in preparation).
  • DRUCKMAN, J. (2013). Pathologies of Studying Public Opinion, Political Communication, and Democratic Responsiveness, Institute for Policy Research Northwestern University, Working Paper Series, WP-13-21.
  • SISK, D. T. (2017). Elections, Electoral Systems and Party Systems, Elections, Electoral Systems and Party Systems A Resource Guide, International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, www.idea.int.
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  • GILENS, M. (1999). Why Americans Hate Welfare: Race, Media, and the Politics of Antipoverty Policy, University of Chicago Press.
  • GANDY, H. O. (2003). “Public Opinion Surveys and the Formation of Privacy Policy”, Journal of Social Issues, 59 (2), p.283-299.
  • GOLDSMITH, E. B. and HORIUCHI, Y. (2009). In Search of Soft Power: Does Foreign Public Opinion Matter for U.S. Foreign Policy?, Crawford School Research Paper No 8.
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  • GÜZ, N., YANIK, H., YEGEN, C., KILIÇ, I. Ö., ve BİNGÖL, M. (2017). “Kamuoyu Araştırmaları ve Medyaya Güven”, International Peer-Reviewed Journal of Communication and Humanities Researches, 16 (0), s.1-20.
  • HANSEN, D. L., SCHNEIDERMAN, B., ve SMITH, M. A. (2011). Analyzing Social Media Networks With Nodexl: İnsights From A Connected World, Burlington, MA: Morgan Kaufmann.
  • HAYES, D. ve GUARDINO, M. (2011). “The Influence of Foreign Voices on U.S. Public Opinion”, American Journal of Political Science, 55 (4), p.830-850.
  • HOFFMAN, L. A. (2005). “Political Parties, Electoral Systems And Democracy: A Cross-National Analysis”, European Journal of Political Research, 44: p.231-242.
  • HTUN, M. VE POWELL, JR. B. G. (2013). Between Science and Engineering: Political Science, Electoral Rules, and Democratic Governance, pp. 1-13, in Political Science, Electoral Rules, and Democratic Governance, Edited by Mala Htun and G. Bingham Powell, Jr., American Political Science Association Task Force Report.
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  • KAMU AJANS; (2018). Cumhurbaşkanlığı Genel Seçiminde Anketlerde Hangi Parti ve Aday Önde? MAK Kesin Sonuçları Açıkladı, URL: http://www.kamuajans.com/kultur-sanat/cumhurbaskanligi-genel-seciminde-anketlerde-hangi-parti-ve-aday-onde-mak-kesin-sonuclari-acikladi-h523679.html, Erişim Tarihi: 22.05.2018.
  • KAZIN, M. (2011). (Ed). The Concise Princeton Encyclopedia of American Political History, Associate Editors: Rebecca Edwards & Adam Rothman, Princeton University Press.
  • KOZAK, M. (2014). Bilimsel Araştırma: Tasarım, Yazım ve Yayım Teknikleri, Ankara: Detay Yayıncılık.
  • KUHNE, W. (2010). The Role of Elections in Emerging Democracies and Post-Conflict Countries Key Issues, Lessons Learned and Dilemmas, International Policy Analysis, Friedrich Ebert Stiftung.
  • LAKE, C. C. VE HARPER, C. P. (2002). Kamuoyu Araştırmaları, Çev. Nurettin Güz, Ankara: Altınküre Yayınları.
  • LAX, R. J. VE PHILLIPS, H. J. (2009). “How ShouldWe Estimate Public Opinion in The States?”, American Journal of Political Science, 53 (1), p.107-121.
  • LEEPER, J. T. VE SLOTHUUS, R. (2014). “Political Parties, Motivated Reasoning, and Public Opinion Formation”, Advances in Political Psychology, Vol. 35, Suppl. 1.
  • MC DONNELL, I. VE WEGIMONT, L. (2002). Public Opinion Research, Global Education and Development Co-operation Reform: In Search of a Virtuous Circle, Europe-Wide Global Education Congress, Maastricht, November 15th-17th 2002, Achieving the Millennium Goals, Learning for Sustainability: increased commitment to global education for increased critical public support, Plenary session 4.
  • MEHRTENS, F. J. (2004). “Three Worlds of Public Opinion? Values, Variations, and the Effect on Social Policy”, International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 16 (2), 115-143.
  • MESFIN, F. (2008). Democracy, elections & political parties A conceptual overview with special emphasis on Africa, ISS Paper 166.
  • MITCHELL, B. VE ROBERTS, V. J. (2010). Public Opinion and Sentencing for Murder an Empirical Investigation of Public Knowledge and Attitudes in England and Wales, Report for the Nuffield Foundation.
  • MOY, P. VE BOSCH, B. (2013). Theories of Public Opinion, Sociology Department, Faculty Publications, 244.
  • ÖZDEMİRCİ, F. (1990). “Niçin Az Okuyoruz” Kamuoyu Araştırması Sonuçlandı, Türk Kütüphaneciliği, 4 (3), p.154-155.
  • POLITICAL OPINION POLLS, NO. 1 (2009). Social Science & Politics Research Team, Parliamentary Affairs Team, February 2009, Library & Research Service Central Enquiry Desk: 618-4701.
  • PRYKE, S. (2012). Social Network Analysis in Construction, Hoboken, N.J.: John Wiley.
  • ROSE-ACKERMAN, S. (2005). From Elections to Democracy in Central Europe: Public Participation and the Role of Civil Society, Prepared for the Club of Madrid IV General Assembly, Prague, Czech Republic, 10-12, November 2005, Revised 12 December 2005.
  • SABAH; (2018). 24 Haziran seçimleri için son kamuoyu araştırması A Haber'de açıklandı, URL: https://www.sabah.com.tr/webtv/haber/24-haziran-secimleri-icin-son-kamuoyu-arastirmasi-a-haberde-aciklandi, 22.05.2018.
  • SALING, K. (2013). Social Network Analysis. R. L. Heath (Ed.), Encyclopedia Of Public Relations (2nd edition, ss. 849–850). Thousand Oaks, California: SAGE Publications, Inc.
  • SNIDERMAN, M. P. VE BULLOCK, J. (2004). A Consistency Theory of Public Opinion and Political Choice: The Hypothesis of Menu Dependence, in Studies in Public Opinion Attitudes, Nonattitudes, Measurement Error, and Change, Ed. Saris, E. W. & Sniderman, M. P., pp. 337-335, Princeton University Press.
  • SCHEVE, K. VE TOMZ, M. (1999). Electoral Surprise and the Midterm Loss in US Congressional Elections, B.J.Pol.S. 29, p.507-521, Cambridge University Press, Printed in the U.K.
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KAMUOYU OLUŞUMU VE SEÇİMLER: 24 HAZİRAN 2018 CUMHURBAŞKANI SEÇİMİ VE 27. DÖNEM MİLLETVEKİLİ GENEL SEÇİMİ ÜZERİNE BİR AĞ ANALİZİ

Year 2018, Volume: 6 Issue: 2, 1248 - 1276, 29.09.2018
https://doi.org/10.19145/e-gifder.429113

Abstract

Demokrasinin kuşkusuz en önemli unsuru olan seçimler, Türkiye siyasi tarihinde de genellikle tartışmalı
olmuştur.Türkiye, 2017 yılı Nisan ayında yapılan Anayasa Değişikliği ile cumhurbaşkanlığı sistemine geçmiştir.
İlgili referandumun tartışmaları sürerken, kamuoyunca kabulü oylanan partili cumhurbaşkanlığına geçmek için
2019 yılı beklenmesine karşın, muhalefet liderlerinden olan ve ilgili sistemi destekleyen siyasi partilerden
Milliyetçi Hareket Partisi (MHP) Genel Başkanı Devlet Bahçeli erken seçim çağrısı yapmıştır. Yapılan
görüşmelerin ardından ülkenin 24 Haziran 2018 tarihinde erken seçime gitmesi kararlaştırılmıştır. Seçmen için bir
yurttaşlık görevi olan seçmen davranışının nasıl seyredeceği ise merak konusudur. Çünkü seçimler öncesi kamuoyu
oluşturma faaliyetlerine büyük önem atfedilmekte, kamuoyu araştırmaları seçmenin nabzını tutarken, yönlendirme
de yapabilmektedir. Bununla birlikte bugün yeni medya tabanlı sosyal ağlarda oluşan kamuoyu ağının durumu da
önemlidir. Bu yüzden bu çalışmada, kamuoyu oluşumu ve kamuoyu araştırmaları ileilgili seçim özelinde sosyal
medyada oluşan kamuoyu ağı analiz edilecektir.

References

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  • ASHWORTH, S.; BUENO DE MESQUITA, E. ve FRİEDENBERG, A. (2016). Accountability and Information in Elections, The research was supported by NSF grants SES-0819152 (Bueno de Mesquita) and SES-0819200 (Friedenberg).
  • ATABEK, N. (2002). “Kamuoyu, Medya ve Demokrasi”, Kurgu Dergisi. 19, s.223-238.
  • AYDIN. B. O. (2018). “Kamuoyu Araştırmalarına Güven”, Gaziantep University Journal of Social Sciences, 17 (2), s.429-437.
  • BERINSKY, A. (1999). “The Two Faces of Public Opinion”, American Journal of Political Science, 43 (4), p.1209–1230.
  • BORICK, P. C.; LACHAPELLE, E. ve RABE, G. B. (2011). Climate Compared: Public Opinion on Climate Change in the United States and Canada, Recent Issues in Governance Studies.
  • CHUNG, S. ve LEE, S. (2016). “Crisis Communication Strategy on Social Media and the Public’s Cognitive and Affective Responses: A Case of Foster Farms Salmonella Outbreak”, Communication Research Reports, 33(4), p.341–348.
  • COLLIER, P. ve HOEFFLER, A. (2009). Democracy’s Achilles Heel or, How to Win an Election without Really Trying, CSAE WPS/2009-08, Centre for the Study of African Economies, Department of Economics, Oxford.
  • DONSBACH, W. (2014). Public Opinion Polls, In: Gianpietro Mazzoleni (ed.), Encyclopedia of Political Communication. Malden et al: Wiley (in preparation).
  • DRUCKMAN, J. (2013). Pathologies of Studying Public Opinion, Political Communication, and Democratic Responsiveness, Institute for Policy Research Northwestern University, Working Paper Series, WP-13-21.
  • SISK, D. T. (2017). Elections, Electoral Systems and Party Systems, Elections, Electoral Systems and Party Systems A Resource Guide, International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, www.idea.int.
  • EUROPEAN COMISSION; (2015). “Standard Eurobarometer 83”, Spring 2015, Public Opinion in The European Union, First Results, Fieldwork: May 2015, Publication: July 2015, This survey has been requested and co-ordinated by the European Commission, Directorate-General for Communication.
  • GILENS, M. (1999). Why Americans Hate Welfare: Race, Media, and the Politics of Antipoverty Policy, University of Chicago Press.
  • GANDY, H. O. (2003). “Public Opinion Surveys and the Formation of Privacy Policy”, Journal of Social Issues, 59 (2), p.283-299.
  • GOLDSMITH, E. B. and HORIUCHI, Y. (2009). In Search of Soft Power: Does Foreign Public Opinion Matter for U.S. Foreign Policy?, Crawford School Research Paper No 8.
  • GÜZ, N. (2005). Haberde Yönlendirme ve Kamuoyu Araştırmaları, Nobel Akademik Yayıncılık: Ankara.
  • GÜZ, N., YANIK, H., YEGEN, C., KILIÇ, I. Ö., ve BİNGÖL, M. (2017). “Kamuoyu Araştırmaları ve Medyaya Güven”, International Peer-Reviewed Journal of Communication and Humanities Researches, 16 (0), s.1-20.
  • HANSEN, D. L., SCHNEIDERMAN, B., ve SMITH, M. A. (2011). Analyzing Social Media Networks With Nodexl: İnsights From A Connected World, Burlington, MA: Morgan Kaufmann.
  • HAYES, D. ve GUARDINO, M. (2011). “The Influence of Foreign Voices on U.S. Public Opinion”, American Journal of Political Science, 55 (4), p.830-850.
  • HOFFMAN, L. A. (2005). “Political Parties, Electoral Systems And Democracy: A Cross-National Analysis”, European Journal of Political Research, 44: p.231-242.
  • HTUN, M. VE POWELL, JR. B. G. (2013). Between Science and Engineering: Political Science, Electoral Rules, and Democratic Governance, pp. 1-13, in Political Science, Electoral Rules, and Democratic Governance, Edited by Mala Htun and G. Bingham Powell, Jr., American Political Science Association Task Force Report.
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  • KAMU AJANS; (2018). Cumhurbaşkanlığı Genel Seçiminde Anketlerde Hangi Parti ve Aday Önde? MAK Kesin Sonuçları Açıkladı, URL: http://www.kamuajans.com/kultur-sanat/cumhurbaskanligi-genel-seciminde-anketlerde-hangi-parti-ve-aday-onde-mak-kesin-sonuclari-acikladi-h523679.html, Erişim Tarihi: 22.05.2018.
  • KAZIN, M. (2011). (Ed). The Concise Princeton Encyclopedia of American Political History, Associate Editors: Rebecca Edwards & Adam Rothman, Princeton University Press.
  • KOZAK, M. (2014). Bilimsel Araştırma: Tasarım, Yazım ve Yayım Teknikleri, Ankara: Detay Yayıncılık.
  • KUHNE, W. (2010). The Role of Elections in Emerging Democracies and Post-Conflict Countries Key Issues, Lessons Learned and Dilemmas, International Policy Analysis, Friedrich Ebert Stiftung.
  • LAKE, C. C. VE HARPER, C. P. (2002). Kamuoyu Araştırmaları, Çev. Nurettin Güz, Ankara: Altınküre Yayınları.
  • LAX, R. J. VE PHILLIPS, H. J. (2009). “How ShouldWe Estimate Public Opinion in The States?”, American Journal of Political Science, 53 (1), p.107-121.
  • LEEPER, J. T. VE SLOTHUUS, R. (2014). “Political Parties, Motivated Reasoning, and Public Opinion Formation”, Advances in Political Psychology, Vol. 35, Suppl. 1.
  • MC DONNELL, I. VE WEGIMONT, L. (2002). Public Opinion Research, Global Education and Development Co-operation Reform: In Search of a Virtuous Circle, Europe-Wide Global Education Congress, Maastricht, November 15th-17th 2002, Achieving the Millennium Goals, Learning for Sustainability: increased commitment to global education for increased critical public support, Plenary session 4.
  • MEHRTENS, F. J. (2004). “Three Worlds of Public Opinion? Values, Variations, and the Effect on Social Policy”, International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 16 (2), 115-143.
  • MESFIN, F. (2008). Democracy, elections & political parties A conceptual overview with special emphasis on Africa, ISS Paper 166.
  • MITCHELL, B. VE ROBERTS, V. J. (2010). Public Opinion and Sentencing for Murder an Empirical Investigation of Public Knowledge and Attitudes in England and Wales, Report for the Nuffield Foundation.
  • MOY, P. VE BOSCH, B. (2013). Theories of Public Opinion, Sociology Department, Faculty Publications, 244.
  • ÖZDEMİRCİ, F. (1990). “Niçin Az Okuyoruz” Kamuoyu Araştırması Sonuçlandı, Türk Kütüphaneciliği, 4 (3), p.154-155.
  • POLITICAL OPINION POLLS, NO. 1 (2009). Social Science & Politics Research Team, Parliamentary Affairs Team, February 2009, Library & Research Service Central Enquiry Desk: 618-4701.
  • PRYKE, S. (2012). Social Network Analysis in Construction, Hoboken, N.J.: John Wiley.
  • ROSE-ACKERMAN, S. (2005). From Elections to Democracy in Central Europe: Public Participation and the Role of Civil Society, Prepared for the Club of Madrid IV General Assembly, Prague, Czech Republic, 10-12, November 2005, Revised 12 December 2005.
  • SABAH; (2018). 24 Haziran seçimleri için son kamuoyu araştırması A Haber'de açıklandı, URL: https://www.sabah.com.tr/webtv/haber/24-haziran-secimleri-icin-son-kamuoyu-arastirmasi-a-haberde-aciklandi, 22.05.2018.
  • SALING, K. (2013). Social Network Analysis. R. L. Heath (Ed.), Encyclopedia Of Public Relations (2nd edition, ss. 849–850). Thousand Oaks, California: SAGE Publications, Inc.
  • SNIDERMAN, M. P. VE BULLOCK, J. (2004). A Consistency Theory of Public Opinion and Political Choice: The Hypothesis of Menu Dependence, in Studies in Public Opinion Attitudes, Nonattitudes, Measurement Error, and Change, Ed. Saris, E. W. & Sniderman, M. P., pp. 337-335, Princeton University Press.
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There are 57 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Ceren Yegen 0000-0001-9582-0711

Bayram Oğuz Aydın 0000-0003-2061-1688

Publication Date September 29, 2018
Submission Date May 31, 2018
Published in Issue Year 2018 Volume: 6 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Yegen, C., & Aydın, B. O. (2018). KAMUOYU OLUŞUMU VE SEÇİMLER: 24 HAZİRAN 2018 CUMHURBAŞKANI SEÇİMİ VE 27. DÖNEM MİLLETVEKİLİ GENEL SEÇİMİ ÜZERİNE BİR AĞ ANALİZİ. Gümüşhane Üniversitesi İletişim Fakültesi Elektronik Dergisi, 6(2), 1248-1276. https://doi.org/10.19145/e-gifder.429113
AMA Yegen C, Aydın BO. KAMUOYU OLUŞUMU VE SEÇİMLER: 24 HAZİRAN 2018 CUMHURBAŞKANI SEÇİMİ VE 27. DÖNEM MİLLETVEKİLİ GENEL SEÇİMİ ÜZERİNE BİR AĞ ANALİZİ. e-gifder. September 2018;6(2):1248-1276. doi:10.19145/e-gifder.429113
Chicago Yegen, Ceren, and Bayram Oğuz Aydın. “KAMUOYU OLUŞUMU VE SEÇİMLER: 24 HAZİRAN 2018 CUMHURBAŞKANI SEÇİMİ VE 27. DÖNEM MİLLETVEKİLİ GENEL SEÇİMİ ÜZERİNE BİR AĞ ANALİZİ”. Gümüşhane Üniversitesi İletişim Fakültesi Elektronik Dergisi 6, no. 2 (September 2018): 1248-76. https://doi.org/10.19145/e-gifder.429113.
EndNote Yegen C, Aydın BO (September 1, 2018) KAMUOYU OLUŞUMU VE SEÇİMLER: 24 HAZİRAN 2018 CUMHURBAŞKANI SEÇİMİ VE 27. DÖNEM MİLLETVEKİLİ GENEL SEÇİMİ ÜZERİNE BİR AĞ ANALİZİ. Gümüşhane Üniversitesi İletişim Fakültesi Elektronik Dergisi 6 2 1248–1276.
IEEE C. Yegen and B. O. Aydın, “KAMUOYU OLUŞUMU VE SEÇİMLER: 24 HAZİRAN 2018 CUMHURBAŞKANI SEÇİMİ VE 27. DÖNEM MİLLETVEKİLİ GENEL SEÇİMİ ÜZERİNE BİR AĞ ANALİZİ”, e-gifder, vol. 6, no. 2, pp. 1248–1276, 2018, doi: 10.19145/e-gifder.429113.
ISNAD Yegen, Ceren - Aydın, Bayram Oğuz. “KAMUOYU OLUŞUMU VE SEÇİMLER: 24 HAZİRAN 2018 CUMHURBAŞKANI SEÇİMİ VE 27. DÖNEM MİLLETVEKİLİ GENEL SEÇİMİ ÜZERİNE BİR AĞ ANALİZİ”. Gümüşhane Üniversitesi İletişim Fakültesi Elektronik Dergisi 6/2 (September 2018), 1248-1276. https://doi.org/10.19145/e-gifder.429113.
JAMA Yegen C, Aydın BO. KAMUOYU OLUŞUMU VE SEÇİMLER: 24 HAZİRAN 2018 CUMHURBAŞKANI SEÇİMİ VE 27. DÖNEM MİLLETVEKİLİ GENEL SEÇİMİ ÜZERİNE BİR AĞ ANALİZİ. e-gifder. 2018;6:1248–1276.
MLA Yegen, Ceren and Bayram Oğuz Aydın. “KAMUOYU OLUŞUMU VE SEÇİMLER: 24 HAZİRAN 2018 CUMHURBAŞKANI SEÇİMİ VE 27. DÖNEM MİLLETVEKİLİ GENEL SEÇİMİ ÜZERİNE BİR AĞ ANALİZİ”. Gümüşhane Üniversitesi İletişim Fakültesi Elektronik Dergisi, vol. 6, no. 2, 2018, pp. 1248-76, doi:10.19145/e-gifder.429113.
Vancouver Yegen C, Aydın BO. KAMUOYU OLUŞUMU VE SEÇİMLER: 24 HAZİRAN 2018 CUMHURBAŞKANI SEÇİMİ VE 27. DÖNEM MİLLETVEKİLİ GENEL SEÇİMİ ÜZERİNE BİR AĞ ANALİZİ. e-gifder. 2018;6(2):1248-76.