“(IL)Liberal Peace” As a Solution? Rethinking Pitfalls in Post-Gaddafi Libya’s Sociopolitical Transformation

Abstract

This research is motivated by the question of why Libya has derailed from “liberal democratic” transition path following the demise of Gaddafi’s authoritarian regime by international intervention in 2011. The paper analyzes post-Gaddafi Libya’s sociopolitical transformation by employing a holistic framework which focuses on interaction between key international and domestic dynamics as a major determinant of the ongoing political turmoil and failed peace-building initiatives. Utilizing process-tracing as methodological framework, the paper identifies the repercussions of interaction between international and domestic dynamics across three thematic sectors: “geopolitical competition” that involves non-state armed actors as well as regional and great powers, “war economy” based primarily on struggle for controlling Libya’s rich hydrocarbon resources, and the rivalry between traditional and emerging norms of “conflict management”. The analysis arrives at two main conclusions regarding post-Gaddafi Libya’s sociopolitical transformation: firstly, both foreign and domestic actors increasingly operate by the logic of winner-takes-all, which turns any power-sharing/peacebuilding initiative into a zero-sum game. Secondly, the idea of ending Libya’s political deadlock through a military solution, to be followed by establishment of an authoritarian leadership, has considerably extended its appeal within either factions to Libyan politics especially since 2014 elections.

Keywords

• Post-Gaddafi Libya
• Conflict Resolution
• Peacebuilding
• Liberal Peace
• Authoritarian Model of Conflict Management

“Liberal (Olmayan) Barış” Bir Çözüm Olabilir mi? Kaddafi sonrası Libya’nın Sosyopolitik Dönüşümündeki Çıkmazları Yeniden Düşünmek

Abstract

Bu çalışma 2011’de uluslararası müdahale ile sona eren Muammer Kaddafi’nin otoriter rejimi sonrası Libya’nın neden “liberal demokratik” dönüşüm patikasından saptığı sorusu kapsamında hazırlanmıştır. Çalışma Kaddafi sonrası Libya’nın sosyopolitik dönüşümünü kilit uluslararası ve yerel dinamikler arasındaki etkileşimi süregelen siyasal karmaşa ve başarısız olan barış inşası girişimlerinin başat belirleyicisi olarak ele alan bütüncül bir çerçeveden faydalanarak analiz etmektedir. Süreç takibi yöntemini yöntemsel çerçeve olarak kullanan çalışma uluslararası ve yerel dinamikler arasındaki etkileşimin sonuçlarını üç tematik alan bağlamında tanımlamıştır: devlet dışı aktörlerin yanı sıra bölgesel ve büyük güçlerin dahil olduğu “jeopolitik rekabet”, temel olarak Libya’nın zengin hidrokarbon kaynaklarının kontrolüne yönelik mücadeleye dayalı “savaş ekonomisi”, ve “çatışma yönetimi” alanındaki geleneksel ve yükselen normlar arasındaki rekabet. Çalışma Kaddafi sonrası Libya’nın sosyopolitik dönüşümüne ilişkin iki temel sonuca ulaşmıştır: birincisi gerek yabancı gerekse de ulusal aktörler giderek artan oranda kazanan her şeyi alır mantığına göre hareket etmekte ve bu da iktidar paylaşımı/barış inşası girişimlerini sıfır toplamlı bir oyuna çevirmektedir. İkincisi, özellikle 2014 seçimlerinden bu yana, Libya’daki siyasal çıkmazı otoriter bir liderliğin kurulmasıyla takip edilecek askeri bir çözümle bitirme fikri Libya siyasetinde boy gösteren iki taraf içinde de giderek daha cazip hale gelmiştir.

Keywords

• Kaddafi sonrası Libya, Çatışma Çözümü, Barış İnşası, Liberal Barış, Otoriter Çatışma Yönetimi Modeli

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