“(IL)Liberal Peace” As a Solution? Rethinking Pitfalls in Post-Gaddafi Libya’s Sociopolitical Transformation

Öz

This research is motivated by the question of why Libya has derailed from “liberal democratic” transition path following the demise of Gaddafi’s authoritarian regime by international intervention in 2011. The paper analyzes post-Gaddafi Libya’s sociopolitical transformation by employing a holistic framework which focuses on interaction between key international and domestic dynamics as a major determinant of the ongoing political turmoil and failed peace-building initiatives. Utilizing process-tracing as methodological framework, the paper identifies the repercussions of interaction between international and domestic dynamics across three thematic sectors: “geopolitical competition” that involves non-state armed actors as well as regional and great powers, “war economy” based primarily on struggle for controlling Libya’s rich hydrocarbon resources, and the rivalry between traditional and emerging norms of “conflict management”. The analysis arrives at two main conclusions regarding post-Gaddafi Libya’s sociopolitical transformation: firstly, both foreign and domestic actors increasingly operate by the logic of winner-takes-all, which turns any power-sharing/peacebuilding initiative into a zero-sum game. Secondly, the idea of ending Libya’s political deadlock through a military solution, to be followed by establishment of an authoritarian leadership, has considerably extended its appeal within either factions to Libyan politics especially since 2014 elections.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Post-Gaddafi Libya
• Conflict Resolution
• Peacebuilding
• Liberal Peace
• Authoritarian Model of Conflict Management

“Liberal (Olmayan) Barış” Bir Çözüm Olabilir mi? Kaddafi sonrası Libya’nın Sosyopolitik Dönüşümündeki Çıkmazları Yeniden Düşünmek

Öz

Bu çalışma 2011’de uluslararası müdahale ile sona eren Muammer Kaddafi’nin otoriter rejimi sonrası Libya’nın neden “liberal demokratik” dönüşüm patikasından saptığı sorusu kapsamında hazırlanmıştır. Çalışma Kaddafi sonrası Libya’nın sosyopolitik dönüşümünü kilit uluslararası ve yerel dinamikler arasındaki etkileşimi süregelen siyasal karmaşa ve başarısız olan barış inşası girişimlerinin başat belirleyicisi olarak ele alan bütüncül bir çerçeveden faydalanarak analiz etmektedir. Süreç takibi yöntemini yöntemsel çerçeve olarak kullanan çalışma uluslararası ve yerel dinamikler arasındaki etkileşimin sonuçlarını üç tematik alan bağlamında tanımlamıştır: devlet dışı aktörlerin yanı sıra bölgesel ve büyük güçlerin dahil olduğu “jeopolitik rekabet”, temel olarak Libya’nın zengin hidrokarbon kaynaklarının kontrolüne yönelik mücadeleye dayalı “savaş ekonomisi”, ve “çatışma yönetimi” alanındaki geleneksel ve yükselen normlar arasındaki rekabet. Çalışma Kaddafi sonrası Libya’nın sosyopolitik dönüşümüne ilişkin iki temel sonuca ulaşmıştır: birincisi gerek yabancı gerekse de ulusal aktörler giderek artan oranda kazanan her şeyi alır mantığına göre hareket etmekte ve bu da iktidar paylaşımı/barış inşası girişimlerini sıfır toplamlı bir oyuna çevirmektedir. İkincisi, özellikle 2014 seçimlerinden bu yana, Libya’daki siyasal çıkmazı otoriter bir liderliğin kurulmasıyla takip edilecek askeri bir çözümle bitirme fikri Libya siyasetinde boy gösteren iki taraf içinde de giderek daha cazip hale gelmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Kaddafi sonrası Libya, Çatışma Çözümü, Barış İnşası, Liberal Barış, Otoriter Çatışma Yönetimi Modeli

Kaynakça

1. Aslan, M. (2020). Hybrid Political Order in Libya: State, Non-State, and Armed Actors. Insight Turkey, 22(4), 139-156.
2. Ahmida, A. A. (2005). Forgotten Voices: Power and Agency in Colonial and Postcolonial Libya. New York: Routledge.
3. Ahmida, A. A. (2012). Libya, Social Origins of Dictatorship, and the Challenge for Democracy. The Journal of the Middle East and Africa, 3(1), 70-81.
4. Akl, Z. (2019). Russia and Post-Arab Spring Political Elites in Egypt, Syria and Libya. V. Talbot, C. Lovotti, Z. Akl, Y. Cherif, Ch. Hartwell, M. Milosevich, & E. Tafuro Ambrosetti (Eds.), The Role of Russia in The Middle East And North Africa Region. Strategy Or Opportunism? (54-69). The European Institute of the Mediterranean.
5. Aktürk, Ş. (2021). Turkey’s Grand Strategy and the Great Powers. Insight Turkey, 23(4), 95-118.
6. Ammar, S. (2022). National Reconciliation in Libya: Challenges and Perspectives. Policy Brief 1/2022. Swiss Peace Foundation.
7. Anderson, L. (2017). “They Defeated Us All’: International Interests, Local Politics, and Contested Sovereignty in Libya. The Middle East Journal, 71(2): 229–247.
8. Badi, E. (2021). Of Conflict and Collapse: Rethinking State Formation in Post-Gaddafi Libya. Middle East Law and Governance, 13(1), 22-48.

9. Badi, E. (2025). Russia is making a fragile pivot from Syria to Libya. The West should beware falling into a new trap. Atlantic Council. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/russia-syria-haftar-libya/. Access Date:06.04.2025.
10. Bilgenoğlu, A., & Mengüaslan, H. (2020). A Historical Sociology Perspective on the Legacy of State Formation and Dynamics of the Arab Spring in Libya: From Elusive Authority of Qadhafi to Masses Craving for Democracy. Türkiye Ortadoğu Çalışmaları Dergisi, 7(1), 203-234.
11. Boduszyński, M. P. (2015) The external dimension of Libya's troubled transition: the international community and ‘democratic knowledge’ transfer. The Journal of North African Studies, 20(5), 735-753.
12. Burton, G. (2019). Chinese Conflict Management in Libya, Syria and Yemen after the Arab Uprisings. Asian Journal of Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies, 13(1), 18–34.
13. Capasso, M. (2020) The war and the economy: the gradual destruction of Libya. Review of African Political Economy, 47(166), 545-567.
14. Chandler, D. (2010). The uncritical critique of ‘liberal peace’. Review of International Studies, 36(S1), 137-155.
15. Chandler, D. (2012). Resilience and human security: The post-interventionist paradigm. Security Dialogue, 43(3), 213–229.
16. Chandler, D. (2015). The R2P Is Dead, Long Live the R2P: The Successful Separation of Military Intervention from the Responsibility to Protect. International Peacekeeping, 22(1), 1-5
17. Colombo, M., & Varvelli, A. (2020). Libya: A Failed State in the Middle of the Mediterranean. IEMed Yearbook. https://www.iemed.org/publication/libya-a-failed-state-in-the-middle-of-the-mediterranean/. Access Date:30.10.2024.
18. Cooper, N. (2007). On the Crisis of the Liberal Peace. Conflict, Security & Development, 7(4), 605–16.
19. Costantini, I. (2016). Conflict dynamics in post-2011 Libya: a political economy perspective. Conflict, Security & Development, 16(5), 405-422.
20. Costantini, I., & Santini, R. H. (2021). Power mediators and the ‘illiberal peace’ momentum: ending wars in Libya and Syria. Third World Quarterly, 43(1), 131-147.
21. Eaton, T. (2018). Libya’s war economy: predation, profiteering and state weakness. Chatham House Research Paper. https://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/ default/files/publications/research/2018-04-12-libyas-war-economy-eaton-final.pdf. Access Date:30.10.2024.
22. Eaton, T. (2021). The Libyan Arab Armed Forces A network analysis of Haftar’s military alliance. Chatham House Research Paper. https://www.chathamhouse.org /2021/06/libyan-arab-armed-forces. Access Date:30.10.2024.
23. Gentry, B. (2019). Regional and Global Impacts of Post-Gaddafi Liby. Anderson, M., & Holmsten, S. (eds.), Political and Economic Foundations in Global Studies (120-132). Routledge.
24. Giumelli, F. (2020). Sanctions as a Regional Security Instrument: EU Restrictive Measures Examined. Cusumano, E., Hofmaier, S. (eds), Projecting Resilience Across the Mediterranean (103-123). Palgrave Macmillan, Cham.
25. Heathershaw, J. (2008). Unpacking the Liberal Peace: The Dividing and Merging of Peacebuilding Discourses. Millennium, 36(3), 597-621.
26. Hinnebusch, R. (1984). Charisma, Revolution, and State Formation: Qaddafi and Libya. Third World Quarterly, 6(1), 59-73.
27. Hweio, H. (2012). Tribes in Libya: From social organization to political power. African Conflict and Peacebuilding Review, 2(1), 111-121.
28. International Crisis Group (2015). The Prize: Fighting for Libya’s Energy Wealth. https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/north-africa/libya/prize-fighting-libya-s-energy-wealth. Access Date:30.10.2024.
29. International Crisis Group (2019). Of tanks and banks: Stopping a dangerous escalation in Libya.https://d2071andvip0wj.cloudfront.net/201-of-tanks-and-banks.pdf.Access Date:30.10.2024.
30. International Crisis Group (2021). Libya Turns the Page. https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/north-africa/libya/222-libya-turns-page. Access Date:30.10.2024.
31. International Crisis Group (2024). Getting Past Libya’s Central Bank Standoff. Crisis Group Middle East and North Africa Briefing N°93. https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/north-africa/libya/b093-getting-past-libyas-central-bank-standoff. Access Date:06.04.2025.
32. Issaev, L., & Zakharov, A. (2020) Decentralization in Libya after the Arab Spring Middle East Policy, XXVII(1), 56-70. Joffé, G. (2019). Can Libya survive as a single State?, L’Année du Maghreb, 21, 253-262.
33. Keen, M. (2021). Assessing Authoritarian Conflict Management in the Middle East and Central Asia. Conflict, Security & Development, 21(3), 245–272.
34. Krylova, Y. (2017). Lock-in effect in the Russian–Libyan economic relations in the post-Arab Spring period. The Journal of North African Studies, 22(4), 578-594.
35. Kuo, S. C. Y. (2012). Beijing's Understanding of African Security: Context and Limitations. African Security, 5(1), 24-43.
36. Lacher, W. (2017). Was Libya's Collapse Predictable? Survival, 59(2), 139-152.
37. Lacher, W. (2020). Libya’s Fragmentation: Structure and Process in Violent Conflict. I.B. Tauris.
38. Larssen, A. K. (2016). Russia: The Principle of Non-Intervention and the Libya Case. Henriksen, D.,&Larssen, A. K. (eds.), Political Rationale and International Consequences of the War in Libya (67-85). Oxford: Oxford University Press.
39. Lewis, D. (2022). Contesting liberal peace: Russia's emerging model of conflict management. International Affairs, 98(2), 653–673.
40. Lewis, D. (2025). ‘Illiberal Peacebuilding’ and Authoritarian Conflict Management. Ginty, R. M. (ed.), Routledge Handbook of Peacebuilding (66-76). Routledge.
41. Lewis, D., Heathershaw, J., & Megoran N. (2018). Illiberal Peace? Authoritarian Modes of Conflict Management. Cooperation and Conflict, 53(4), 486–506.
42. Marcuzzi, S. (2022). The EU, NATO and the Libya Conflict: Anatomy of a Failure?. Routledge.
43. Megerisi, T. (2020). Geostrategic Dimensions of Libya’s Civil War. Africa Center for Strategic Studies. http://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep24408.
44. Melcangi, A.,& Mezran, K. (2022). Truly a Proxy War? Militias, Institutions and External Actors in Libya between Limited Statehood and Rentier State. The International Spectator, 57(4), 121-138.
45. Mezran, K. (2018). Libya: Stuck in Transition. IEMED Mediterranean Yearbook, 213-215.
46. Pargeter, A. (2020). Haftar, tribal power, and the battle for Libya. https://warontherocks.com/2020/05/haftar-tribal-power-and-the-battle-for-libya/.Access Date:30.10.2024.
47. Paris, R. (2010). Saving Liberal Peacebuilding. Review of International Studies, 36,(02): 337-365.
48. Perroux, J. R. (2015). Libya’s Untold Story: Civil Society amid Chaos. Middle East Brief, No. 93, 1-8.
49. Perroux, J. R. (2019) The Deep Roots of Libya’s Security Fragmentation. Middle Eastern Studies, 55(2), 200-224.
50. Pradella, L., & Rad, S. T. (2017). Libya and Europe: imperialism, crisis and migration. Third World Quarterly, 38(11), 2411-2427.
51. Raineri, L. (2022) Imagined Libya: geopolitics of the margins, L’Année du Maghreb, 28, 109-124.
52. Ramani, S. (2022). Russia’s Post-2011 Resurgence in Libya: A Four-Pronged Hybrid Intervention. Välimäki, J., & Hiltunen, A. (eds.), Hybrid threat activity in the MENA region: State and non-state actors seeking status and expanding influence (11-33). Hybrid CoE Research Reports, Finland.
53. Randall, E. (2015). After qadhafi: Development and democratization in libya. The Middle East Journal, 69(2), 199-221.
54. Richmond, O. P. (2006). The problem of peace: understanding the ‘liberal peace.’ Conflict, Security & Development, 6(3), 291–314.
55. Quamar, Md. M. (2020). Turkey and the Regional Flashpoint in Libya. Strategic Analysis, 44(6), 597–602.
56. Sawani, Y. M. (2018) Public Administration in Libya: Continuity and Change. International Journal of Public Administration, 41(10), 807-819.
57. Sawani, Y. M. (2020). Gaddafi’s Legacy, Institutional Development, and National Reconciliation in Libya. Contemporary Arab Affairs, 13(1), 46–68.
58. Selby, J. (2013). The myth of liberal peace-building. Conflict, Security & Development, 13(1), 57–86.
59. St. John, R. B. (2008). The Libyan Economy in Transition Opportunities and Challenges. Vandewalle, D. (ed.), Libya since 1969: Qadhafi’s Revolution Revisited (127-151). New York: Palgrave Macmillian.
60. Sun, D., & Zoubir, Y. (2018). China’s Participation in Conflict Resolution in the Middle East and North Africa: A Case of Quasi-Mediation Diplomacy?. Journal of Contemporary China, 27(110), 224-243.
61. Telci, I. N. (2020). Turkey’s Libya Policy. Insight Turkey, 22(4), 41-54.
62. The New York Times. (19.12.2024). Its Syrian Bases in Doubt, Russia Sends Cargo Flights to Libya. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/19/world/middleeast/russia-flights-libya-syria.html. Access Date:06.04.2025.
63. Tinti, P. (2024). Tackling the Niger–Libya migration route: How armed conflict in Libya shapes the Agadez mobility economy. Chatham House. https://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/2024-07/2024-07-31-transnational-links-agadez-conflict-libya-tinti.pdf. Access Date:06.04.2025.
64. Vandewalle, D. (2012). A History of Modern Libya. Cambridge University Press.
65. Wolfgang, W., & Anholt, R. (2016). Resilience as the EU Global Strategy’s new leitmotif: pragmatic, problematic or promising?. Contemporary Security Policy, 37(3), 414-430.
66. World Bank. (2021). Libya Economic Monitor. https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/3d3cd163628175d3add84db3c707eaa5-0280 012021/original/ENG-Libya-Economic-Monitor.pdf?_gl=1*eb6zok*_gcl_au*NDE2M TUwOTQwLjE3MTY2NjMyMjU. Access Date:30.10.2024.
67. Yalvaç, F., & Mengüaslan, H. (2024). The Theory of Uneven and Combined Development and the Sociopolitical Transformations in Syria and Libya. Middle East Critique, 33(1), 105-120.
68. Yeşilyurt, N. (2023). A New Balance between ‘Local’ and ‘National’? Libya’s Failed Security Sector Reform. Journal of Intervention and Statebuilding, 17(4), 456–476.
69. Zambakari, C. (2016). The misguided and mismanaged intervention in Libya: Consequences for peace. African Security Review, 25(1), 44-62.
70. Zoubir, Y. H. (2006). The United States and Libya: From Confrontation to Normalization. Middle East Policy, 13(2), 48-70.
71. Zoubir, Y. H. (2020). The Protracted Civil War in Libya: The Role of Outside Powers. Insight Turkey, 22(4), 11 - 27.