UNLIKELY SCENARIO: HALT OF IRANIAN NUCLEAR PROGRAMME

Abstract

This article analyzes if a change in domestic political dynamics might lead to a change of attitude toward abandoning Iranian nuclear programme, focusing on the attitudes of Iranian political factions, namely radical conservatives, pragmatic conservatives and reformists toward the Iranian nuclear programme. Presently, there is a common agreement among the political factions on how to continue on nuclear programme. Though this difference among attitudes is known, there has not been much literature on this issue. The article aims to show that even though there might be a change in the inner political dynamics, it would be a mistake to expect a great change in the official policy of Iran on nuclear programme. Iran will not halt its nuclear programme. The article argues that with the re-election of Mahmoud Ahmedinejad in the June 2009 presidential elections, in the short-term, there will not be any change in Iran‟s official attitude regarding its nuclear programme. Besides in the long-term, it is underlined that even if Ahmedinejad administration might be replaced by „reformists‟, Iran will not abandon its aim to achieve nuclear power, only there may be moderation in Iran‟s official rhetoric, and negotiations with the international community might improve.

Keywords

• Iran‟s nuclear programme, Iranian domestic politics, political factions in Iran

References

1. BAHGAT, G. (2006): “Nuclear Proliferation: The Islamic Republic of Iran”, Iranian Studies, 39 (3): 307-327.
2. BBC NEWS (5 March 2008), “Iran Rejects New EU Nuclear Talks”, http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/middle_east/7279852.stm, (10.03. 2008).
3. CHUBIN, S. (2002): Whither Iran? Reform, Domestic Politics and National Security, New York, Oxford University Press.
4. CHUBIN, S. (2006): Iran‟s Nuclear Ambitions, Washington D.C., Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
5. CHUBIN, S. and LITWAK, R. S. (2003): “Debating Iran‟s Nuclear Aspirations”, The Washington Quarterly, 26 (4): 99-104.
6. INSTITUTE for SCIENCE and INTERNATIONAL SECURITY (2008), “Diplomatic Offer to Iran”, http://www.isis-online.org/publications /iran/Diplomatic_Offer_16June2008.pdf, (20.06. 2008).
7. ECONOMIST (19 March 2009), “Iran‟s presidential choice: It could make a big difference”, http://www.economist.com/ displayStory.cfm?story_id= 13331239. (25.03.2009).
8. EHTESHAMI, A. and ZWEIRI, M. (2007): Iran and the Rise of Its Neoconservatives: The Politics of Tehran‟s Silent Revolution. New York, I.B. Tauris.

9. GASIOROWSKI, M. (2007): “The New Aggressiveness in Iran‟s Foreign Policy”, Middle East Policy, 14 (2): 125-132.
10. HUNTINGTON, S. P. (1993): “The Clash of Civilizations?”, Foreign Affairs, 72: 22-49.
11. KAMRAVA, M. (2007): “Iranian National Security Debates: Factionalism and Lost Opportunities”, Middle East Policy, 14 (2): 84-100.
12. POLLACK, K. M. (2006): “Iran: Three Alternative Futures”, Middle East Review of International Affairs, 10 (2): 73-83.
13. POLLACK K. M. & TAKEYH, R. (2005): “Taking on Tehran”, Foreign Affairs, 84 (2): 20-34.
14. RAMAZANI, R. K. (1998): “The Shifting Premise of Iran‟s Foreign Policy: Toward a Democratic Peace?”, Middle East Journal, 52 (2): 177-187.
15. SEIFZADEH, H. S. (2003): “The Landscape of Factional Politics and Its Future in Iran”, Middle East Journal, 57(1): 57-75.
16. TAKEYH, R. (2003): “Iran at a Crossroads”, Middle East Journal, 57 (1): 42-56.
17. TAKEYH, R. (2003): “Iran‟s Nuclear Calculations”, World Policy Journal, 20 (2): 21-28.
18. TAKEYH, R. & GVOSDEV, K. (2004): “Pragmatism in the Midst of Iranian Turmoil”, The Washington Quarterly, 27 (4): 33-56.
19. TEHRAN TIMES (5 March 2008), “Iran: Sanctions Resolution Deals Another Blow to Security Council‟s Credibility”, http://www.tehrantimes.com/NCms/2007.asp?code=164434, (10.03. 2008).
20. UN SECURITY COUNCIL REPORT (2006), http://www.securitycouncil report.org/atf/cf/%7B65BFCF9B-6D27-4E9C-8CD3-CF6E4FF96FF 9%7 D/Iran%20S2006521.pdf, (12.02. 2008).