THIRLWALL YASASI: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ, 1982-2008

Abstract

Bu çalışmada ödemeler dengesi kısıtlı büyüme oranı olarak da bilinen Thirlwall yasası, sermaye hareketleri ve dış borç servisi dikkate alınarak 1982-2008 dönemi itibariyle Türkiye için Kalman filtre tahmin yöntemi ile test edilmiştir. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre, Thirlwall ve Hussain (1982) ve Elliott ve Rhodd (1999)’un ödemeler dengesi kısıtlı büyüme oranı gerçekleşen büyüme oranının iyi bir tahmincisidir

Keywords

• Ödemeler dengesi kısıdı, Ekonomik büyüme, Sermaye girişi, Borç servisi

THIRLWALL LAW: THE CASE OF TURKEY, 1982-2008

Abstract

In this study, the balance-of-payments constrained economic growth known as Thirlwall's law was tested to include capital flows and debt servicing for Turkey at the period of 1982-2008 using Kalman filter estimation method. According to the results, Thirlwall and Hussain’s (1982) and Elliott and Rhodd’s (1999) the balance-of-payments constrained economic growth rate is the best indicator of actual growth rate

Keywords

• Balance-of-payments constraint, Economic growth, Capital flows, Debt servicing

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