İthalat-İhracat-Döviz Kuru Bağımlılığı: Bootstrap ile Düzeltilmiş Nedensellik Testi Uygulaması

Abstract

2003:1 ile 2011:9 döneminde Türkiye’nin ithalat-ihracat-reel döviz kuru arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisinin ampirik olarak araştırıldığı bu çalışmada Hacker ve Hatemi-J (2006) tarafından önerilen kaldıraçlı bootstrap tekniğiyle düzeltilmiş MWALD testi uygulanmıştır. Toplam ihracat-toplam ithalat, toplam ihracat-ara malı ithalatı, toplam ihracat-sermaye malı ithalatı, toplam ithalat-tüketim malı ihracatı ve sermaye malı ithalatıtüketim malı ihracatı arasında iki yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmuştur. Toplam ihracattan tüketim malı ithalatına doğru, tüketim malı ihracatından tüketim malı ithalatına ve ara malı ithalatına doğru tek yönlü ilişki bulunmuştur. Döviz kuru ile ithalat ve ihracat arasındaki nedensellik ilişkilerine yönelik tahminlerin tamamında bir nedensellik ilişkisine rastlanmamıştır. Bulgular bütün olarak değerlendirildiğinde, ithalat ve ihracat arasındaki bağımlılığın döviz kuru politikasını yansız hale getirdiğini ima etmektedir

Keywords

• İthalat, ihracat, döviz kuru, nedensellik

Dependence of Import-Export-Exchange Rate: Application of Bootstrap-Corrected Causality Test

Abstract

In this study which empirically investigates import-export-real exchange rate causality relationships for Turkey in the period of 2003:1-2011:9 it was used a leveraged bootstrap-corrected MWALD test suggested by Hacker and Hatemi-J (2006). It was found that there are bi-directional causality relationships between total export-total import, total export-intermediate good import, total export-capital good import, total importconsumer good export and capital good import-consumer good export. It was obtained that there was unidirectional causality relationships from total export to consumer good import, from consumer good export to consumer good import and to intermediate good import. I was found causality relationships neither between real exchange rate and import nor real exchange rate and import. When the findings totally evaluated, it was imply that dependence between import and export lead to neutrality of exchange rate policy

Keywords

• Import, export, exchange rate, causality

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