Real Convergence in Selected OECD Countries

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to re-examine the convergence hypothesis both linear and nonlinear time series techniques for 21 OECD countries during the period of 1950-2008. The linear augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test results support the existence of a unit root which means that there is nonconvergence in both de-meaned output and the output gap series constructed as the difference between actual GDP series of each OECD country from that of the USA. We used a nonlinear test as an alternative procedure if there are nonlinearities in the series. The nonlinear testing procedures reject the null hypothesis that there is a unit root in the series providing some supportive evidence of a nonlinear output convergence among the selected OECD economies

Keywords

• Convergence hypothesis, nonlinear unit root, KSS test, LNV-sollis test

Seçilmiş OECD Ülkelerinde Gerçek Yakınsama

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı, 1950-2008 periyodunda 21 OECD ülkesi için yakınsama hipotezini sınamaktır. Doğrusal Dickey Fuller (ADF) test sonuçları, hem ortalamadan çıkarılmış çıktı serilerinde ve hem de her bir OECD ülkesinin fiili GDP serilerinin ABD’nin GDP serilerinden farkını ifade eden serilerde yakınsamanın olmadığı anlamına gelen birim kökün varlığını desteklemektedir. Çalışmada kullanılan serilerin doğrusal olmaması halinde, doğrusal olmayan birim kök testleri ADF birim kök testine bir alternatif olarak kullanılmaktadır. Doğrusal olmayan test sonuçları, seçilmiş OECD ekonomileri arasında doğrusal olmayan çıktı yakınsaması kanıtlarını destekleyerek, serilerde birim kökün varlığını ifade eden boşluk hipotezini red etmektedir

Keywords

• Yakınsama hipotezi, doğrusal olmayan birim kök, KSS testi, LNV-sollis testi

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