TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİNDE SERMAYE AKIMLARINDAKİ GERİ DÖNÜŞLER VE ANİ DURMALAR

Year 2007, Volume: 7 Issue: 1, 193 - 216, 01.05.2007

Cemil Varlık

Abstract

Türkiye ekonomisi dış finansal serbestlik ortamında üç kez (1994, 1998 ve 2001) sermaye akımlarında keskin geri dönüş (ani durma) yaşamıştır. Adı geçen ani durmaların ikisi (1994 ve 2001), ekonomide oldukça benzer etkiler yaratmıştır. Söz konusu ani durmalar sırasında tüketimde, yatırımda ve milli gelirde çöküşler olmuş, banka kredilerinde daralmalar yaşanmış ve İMKB endeksi yüksek oranlı düşüşler sergilemiştir. Her iki ani durma da para ve bankacılık krizlerine eşlik etmiş, cari işlemler hesabında keskin geri dönüşler ortaya çıkmıştır. Ayrıca her iki ani durma sırasında Türk Lirası değer kaybederken, ithalat azalmış ve ihracat artmıştır. Bununla birlikte 1998 yılında görülen sermaye akımlarındaki ani durma, yukarıda sözü edilen özelliklerin bir kısmını sergilememiştir. Bu dönemde Türk Lirasının reel değer kaybı sınırlı kalmış, cari işlemler geri dönüşü sırasında ihracat artmamış, tersine azalmıştır. Ayrıca 1998 ani durması, bir para ve/veya bankacılık krizine eşlik etmemiştir

Keywords

Ani Durmalar, Cari işlemler, Para krizleri, Bankacılık krizleri

REVERSALS AND SUDDEN STOPS OF CAPITAL FLOWS IN THE TURKISH ECONOMY

Abstract

During the external financial liberalization period, the Turkish economy experienced three sharp reversals (sudden stops) in capital inflows (1994, 1998, and 2001), two of which (1994 and 2001) created quite similar effects. During these two sudden stops, there were collapses in consumption, investment, and national income, contractions in bank credits, and drops in the Istanbul Stock Exchange Index. Both sudden stops were accompanied by currency crises, banking crises, and current account reversals. During both events, the Turkish Lira depreciated sharply, and import decreased while export increased. However, some of these effects did not appear during the 1998 sudden stop. Real depreciation of the Turkish Lira remained limited, and export exhibited decreases instead of increases during this event. Furthermore, the 1998 sudden stop was accompanied by neither a currency nor a banking crisis

Keywords

Sudden stops, Current account, Currency crises, Banking crises

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