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TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİNDE SERMAYE AKIMLARINDAKİ GERİ DÖNÜŞLER VE ANİ DURMALAR

Year 2007, Volume: 7 Issue: 1, 193 - 216, 01.05.2007

Abstract

Türkiye ekonomisi dış finansal serbestlik ortamında üç kez (1994, 1998 ve 2001) sermaye akımlarında keskin geri dönüş (ani durma) yaşamıştır. Adı geçen ani durmaların ikisi (1994 ve 2001), ekonomide oldukça benzer etkiler yaratmıştır. Söz konusu ani durmalar sırasında tüketimde, yatırımda ve milli gelirde çöküşler olmuş, banka kredilerinde daralmalar yaşanmış ve İMKB endeksi yüksek oranlı düşüşler sergilemiştir. Her iki ani durma da para ve bankacılık krizlerine eşlik etmiş, cari işlemler hesabında keskin geri dönüşler ortaya çıkmıştır. Ayrıca her iki ani durma sırasında Türk Lirası değer kaybederken, ithalat azalmış ve ihracat artmıştır. Bununla birlikte 1998 yılında görülen sermaye akımlarındaki ani durma, yukarıda sözü edilen özelliklerin bir kısmını sergilememiştir. Bu dönemde Türk Lirasının reel değer kaybı sınırlı kalmış, cari işlemler geri dönüşü sırasında ihracat artmamış, tersine azalmıştır. Ayrıca 1998 ani durması, bir para ve/veya bankacılık krizine eşlik etmemiştir

References

  • Arellano, C. ve E. Mendoza (2002): “Credit Frictions and Sudden Stops in Small
  • Open Economies: An Equilibrium Business Cycle Framework for Emerging Markets Crises.” NBER Working Paper, No.8880.
  • Bernanke, B., Gertler, M. ve S. Gilchrist (1999): “The Financial Accelerator in a
  • Quantitative Business Cycle Framework.” Taylor, J. ve M. Woodford (Der.) Handbook of Macroeconomics, Amsterdam, Elsevier Science,1341-1393.
  • Caballero, R. ve A. Krishnamurthy (2001): “International and Domestic
  • Collateral Constraints in a Model of Emerging Market Crises.” Journal of Monetary Economics, 48(3):513-548. Calvo, Guillermo (1998): “Capital Flows and Capital Market Crises: The Simple
  • Economics of Sudden Stops.” Journal of Applied Economics, 1(1):35-54. Calvo, G.A., A. Izquierdo ve L. Mejia (2004): “On the Empirics of Sudden Stops:
  • The Relevance of Balance-Sheet Effects,” Inter-American Development Bank Research Department Working Paper, No.509. De Nicolo, G., P. Honohon ve A. Ize (2003): “Dollarization of the Banking
  • System: Good or Bad?” IMF Working Paper, No.146. Dornbusch, R., I.Goldfajn ve R. Valdes (1995): “Currency Crises and Collapses.” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 24(2):219-293.
  • Edwards, Sebastian (2005): “Capital Controls, Sudden Stops and Current
  • Account Reversals” NBER Working Paper No. 11170.
  • Eichengreen, B., P. Gupta, ve A. Mody (2006): “Sudden Stops and IMF
  • Programs” Interamerican Seminar on Macroeconomics, Rio de Janiero. Frankel, J.A. ve E.A. Cavallo (2004): “Does Openness to Trade Make Countries
  • More Vulnerable to Sudden Stops, or Less? Using Gravity to Establish Causality,” NBER Working Paper, No.10957.
  • Guidotti, P., F.Sturzenegger ve A. Villar (2004): “On the Consequences of
  • Sudden Stops.” Economia, 4(2):171-214. Honohon, P. ve A. Shi (2001): “Deposit Dollarization and the Financial Sector in
  • Emerging Economies.” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, No. 2748.
  • Huchison, M. ve I. Noy (2006): "Sudden Stops and the Mexican Wave: Currency
  • Crises, Capital Flow Reversals and Output Loss in Emerging Markets," Journal of Development Economics, 79(2):225-248. Inter-American Development Bank (2004): Unlocking Credit: The Quest for
  • Deep and Stable Bank Lending. Research Department of the IDB, Washington DC: 2004.
  • Kiyokati, N. ve J. Moore (1997): “Credit Cycles.” Journal of Political Economy, (2):211-248.
  • Melecky, Martin (2005): “The Impact of Current Account Reversals on Growth in
  • Central and Eastern Europe.” Eastern European Economics, 43(2):57-72. Mendoza, Enrique (2001): “Credit, Prices, and Crashes: Business Cycles with a
  • Sudden Stop.” NBER Working Paper, No.8338.
  • Mendoza, Enrique (2006): “Lessons from the Debt-Deflation Theory of Sudden
  • Stops.” NBER Working Paper, No.11966.
  • Mendoza, E. ve K.A. Smith (2002): “Margin Calls, Trading Costs, and Asset
  • Prices in Emerging Markets: The Financial Mechanics of the Sudden Stop Phenomenon.” NBER Working Paper, No.9286.
  • Mendoza, E. ve K.A. Smith (2005): “Quantitative Implications of a Debt
  • Deflation Theory of Sudden Stops and Asset Prices.” Journal of International Economics, gelecek sayı. Milesi-Ferretti, G. ve A. Razin (1998): “Current Account Reversals and Currency
  • Crises: Empirical Regularities.” NBER Working Paper, No.6620.
  • Paasche, Bernhard (2001): “Credit Constraints and International Financial
  • Crises.” Journal of Monetary Economics, 48(3):623-650. Yevati, Eduardo Levy (2006): “Financial Dollarization: Evaluating the Consequences.” Economic Policy, 21(45):61-118.
  • Yılmaz, Gökhan (2005): “Financial Dollarization, (De)Dollarization, and the Turkish Experience.” Turkish Economic Association Discussion Paper, No.2005/6.

REVERSALS AND SUDDEN STOPS OF CAPITAL FLOWS IN THE TURKISH ECONOMY

Year 2007, Volume: 7 Issue: 1, 193 - 216, 01.05.2007

Abstract

During the external financial liberalization period, the Turkish economy experienced three sharp reversals (sudden stops) in capital inflows (1994, 1998, and 2001), two of which (1994 and 2001) created quite similar effects. During these two sudden stops, there were collapses in consumption, investment, and national income, contractions in bank credits, and drops in the Istanbul Stock Exchange Index. Both sudden stops were accompanied by currency crises, banking crises, and current account reversals. During both events, the Turkish Lira depreciated sharply, and import decreased while export increased. However, some of these effects did not appear during the 1998 sudden stop. Real depreciation of the Turkish Lira remained limited, and export exhibited decreases instead of increases during this event. Furthermore, the 1998 sudden stop was accompanied by neither a currency nor a banking crisis

References

  • Arellano, C. ve E. Mendoza (2002): “Credit Frictions and Sudden Stops in Small
  • Open Economies: An Equilibrium Business Cycle Framework for Emerging Markets Crises.” NBER Working Paper, No.8880.
  • Bernanke, B., Gertler, M. ve S. Gilchrist (1999): “The Financial Accelerator in a
  • Quantitative Business Cycle Framework.” Taylor, J. ve M. Woodford (Der.) Handbook of Macroeconomics, Amsterdam, Elsevier Science,1341-1393.
  • Caballero, R. ve A. Krishnamurthy (2001): “International and Domestic
  • Collateral Constraints in a Model of Emerging Market Crises.” Journal of Monetary Economics, 48(3):513-548. Calvo, Guillermo (1998): “Capital Flows and Capital Market Crises: The Simple
  • Economics of Sudden Stops.” Journal of Applied Economics, 1(1):35-54. Calvo, G.A., A. Izquierdo ve L. Mejia (2004): “On the Empirics of Sudden Stops:
  • The Relevance of Balance-Sheet Effects,” Inter-American Development Bank Research Department Working Paper, No.509. De Nicolo, G., P. Honohon ve A. Ize (2003): “Dollarization of the Banking
  • System: Good or Bad?” IMF Working Paper, No.146. Dornbusch, R., I.Goldfajn ve R. Valdes (1995): “Currency Crises and Collapses.” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 24(2):219-293.
  • Edwards, Sebastian (2005): “Capital Controls, Sudden Stops and Current
  • Account Reversals” NBER Working Paper No. 11170.
  • Eichengreen, B., P. Gupta, ve A. Mody (2006): “Sudden Stops and IMF
  • Programs” Interamerican Seminar on Macroeconomics, Rio de Janiero. Frankel, J.A. ve E.A. Cavallo (2004): “Does Openness to Trade Make Countries
  • More Vulnerable to Sudden Stops, or Less? Using Gravity to Establish Causality,” NBER Working Paper, No.10957.
  • Guidotti, P., F.Sturzenegger ve A. Villar (2004): “On the Consequences of
  • Sudden Stops.” Economia, 4(2):171-214. Honohon, P. ve A. Shi (2001): “Deposit Dollarization and the Financial Sector in
  • Emerging Economies.” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, No. 2748.
  • Huchison, M. ve I. Noy (2006): "Sudden Stops and the Mexican Wave: Currency
  • Crises, Capital Flow Reversals and Output Loss in Emerging Markets," Journal of Development Economics, 79(2):225-248. Inter-American Development Bank (2004): Unlocking Credit: The Quest for
  • Deep and Stable Bank Lending. Research Department of the IDB, Washington DC: 2004.
  • Kiyokati, N. ve J. Moore (1997): “Credit Cycles.” Journal of Political Economy, (2):211-248.
  • Melecky, Martin (2005): “The Impact of Current Account Reversals on Growth in
  • Central and Eastern Europe.” Eastern European Economics, 43(2):57-72. Mendoza, Enrique (2001): “Credit, Prices, and Crashes: Business Cycles with a
  • Sudden Stop.” NBER Working Paper, No.8338.
  • Mendoza, Enrique (2006): “Lessons from the Debt-Deflation Theory of Sudden
  • Stops.” NBER Working Paper, No.11966.
  • Mendoza, E. ve K.A. Smith (2002): “Margin Calls, Trading Costs, and Asset
  • Prices in Emerging Markets: The Financial Mechanics of the Sudden Stop Phenomenon.” NBER Working Paper, No.9286.
  • Mendoza, E. ve K.A. Smith (2005): “Quantitative Implications of a Debt
  • Deflation Theory of Sudden Stops and Asset Prices.” Journal of International Economics, gelecek sayı. Milesi-Ferretti, G. ve A. Razin (1998): “Current Account Reversals and Currency
  • Crises: Empirical Regularities.” NBER Working Paper, No.6620.
  • Paasche, Bernhard (2001): “Credit Constraints and International Financial
  • Crises.” Journal of Monetary Economics, 48(3):623-650. Yevati, Eduardo Levy (2006): “Financial Dollarization: Evaluating the Consequences.” Economic Policy, 21(45):61-118.
  • Yılmaz, Gökhan (2005): “Financial Dollarization, (De)Dollarization, and the Turkish Experience.” Turkish Economic Association Discussion Paper, No.2005/6.
There are 34 citations in total.

Details

Other ID JA44CR82BS
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Cemil Varlık This is me

Publication Date May 1, 2007
Published in Issue Year 2007 Volume: 7 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Varlık, C. (2007). REVERSALS AND SUDDEN STOPS OF CAPITAL FLOWS IN THE TURKISH ECONOMY. Ege Academic Review, 7(1), 193-216.
AMA Varlık C. REVERSALS AND SUDDEN STOPS OF CAPITAL FLOWS IN THE TURKISH ECONOMY. ear. May 2007;7(1):193-216.
Chicago Varlık, Cemil. “REVERSALS AND SUDDEN STOPS OF CAPITAL FLOWS IN THE TURKISH ECONOMY”. Ege Academic Review 7, no. 1 (May 2007): 193-216.
EndNote Varlık C (May 1, 2007) REVERSALS AND SUDDEN STOPS OF CAPITAL FLOWS IN THE TURKISH ECONOMY. Ege Academic Review 7 1 193–216.
IEEE C. Varlık, “REVERSALS AND SUDDEN STOPS OF CAPITAL FLOWS IN THE TURKISH ECONOMY”, ear, vol. 7, no. 1, pp. 193–216, 2007.
ISNAD Varlık, Cemil. “REVERSALS AND SUDDEN STOPS OF CAPITAL FLOWS IN THE TURKISH ECONOMY”. Ege Academic Review 7/1 (May 2007), 193-216.
JAMA Varlık C. REVERSALS AND SUDDEN STOPS OF CAPITAL FLOWS IN THE TURKISH ECONOMY. ear. 2007;7:193–216.
MLA Varlık, Cemil. “REVERSALS AND SUDDEN STOPS OF CAPITAL FLOWS IN THE TURKISH ECONOMY”. Ege Academic Review, vol. 7, no. 1, 2007, pp. 193-16.
Vancouver Varlık C. REVERSALS AND SUDDEN STOPS OF CAPITAL FLOWS IN THE TURKISH ECONOMY. ear. 2007;7(1):193-216.