The Effect of Energy (Oil and Natural Gas) Factor in Civil Wars: The Case of Syria

Abstract

The aim of this study is to evaluate the role and impact of Syria's oil and natural gas reserves on the civil war. For this reason, in this study, the effects of hydrocarbon resource areas on the war strategies followed by the countries and groups involved in the Syrian civil war, how the energy struggle in the reserve areas affects the war process, the financial impact of oil and natural gas resource areas on the warring groups and the role of conflict intensity and increasing casualties will be discussed. In this direction, a comprehensive literature study was conducted on the subject, scientific publications and reports of international energy organizations were used. The distribution of Syrian energy resources and the groups involved in the war have been tried to be given with maps, and the UCDP data set was used to determine the casualties caused by the parties involved in the civil war. The oil and natural gas fields in Syria have not only led to an increase in the level of conflict between the actors who want to seize control in the civil war, but also have played an effective role in establishing cooperation between illegal organizations and the countries involved in the war in Syria. In Syria, conflicts between terrorist organizations such as DAESH, PYD/YPG/SGD, regime forces, countries that support different groups and dissident groups have been more intense, especially in areas where there are energy resource areas. Syrian oil and natural gas resource areas have not only prolonged the duration of the civil war, but also caused the conflict to intensify. Resource areas have become one of the most important sources of finance for different factions of the war in the country.

Keywords

• Civil war
• energy
• Syria
• oil
• political geography

İç Savaşlarda Enerji (Petrol ve Doğal Gaz) Faktörünün Etkisi: Suriye Örneği

Abstract

Çalışmanın amacı, Suriye’nin petrol ve doğal gaz rezerv alanlarının iç savaş üzerindeki rolü ve etkisini değerlendirmektir. Bu nedenle çalışmada, hidrokarbon kaynak alanlarının Suriye iç savaşına dâhil olan ülke ve grupların izledikleri savaş stratejilerine etkileri, rezerv alanlarındaki enerji mücadelesinin savaş sürecini nasıl etkilediği, petrol ve doğal gaz kaynak alanlarının savaşan gruplara finansal tesiri ve çatışma yoğunluğu ile zayiatları arttırmadaki rolü tartışılacaktır. Bu doğrultuda, konu ile ilgili kapsamlı bir literatür çalışması yapılmış, bilimsel yayınlar ve uluslararası enerji kuruluşlarının raporlarından yararlanılmıştır. Suriye enerji kaynaklarının ve savaşa dâhil olan grupların dağılımı haritalarla verilmeye çalışılmış, iç savaşa müdahil olan tarafların neden olduğu can kayıplarının tespiti için UCDP veri seti kullanılmıştır. Suriye petrol ve doğal gaz alanları, iç savaşta kontrolü ele geçirmek isteyen aktörler arasındaki çatışma düzeyinin artmasına yol açmakla kalmamış aynı zamanda illegal örgütlerle Suriye’deki savaşa müdahil olan ülkeler arasında iş birliklerinin yapılmasında da etkin rol oynamıştır. Suriye’de DEAŞ, PYD/YPG/SDG gibi terör örgütleri, rejim güçleri, farklı gruplara destek veren ülkeler ile muhalif gruplar arasındaki çatışmalar özellikle enerji kaynak sahalarının olduğu yerlerde daha yoğun yaşanmıştır. Suriye petrol ve doğal gaz kaynak alanları, yaşanan iç savaşın süresini uzatmakla kalmamış, aynı zamanda çatışmanın daha fazla şiddetlenmesine neden olmuştur. Rezerv/üretim alanları, ülkedeki savaşan farklı gruplar için önemli finans kaynaklarından biri haline gelmiştir.

Keywords

• İç savaş
• Enerji
• Suriye
• petrol
• siyasi coğrafya

References

1. Acun, C., Keskin, B. (2016). PKK’nın Kuzey Suriye örgütlenmesi, Rapor, SETA | Siyaset, Ekonomi ve Toplum Araştırmaları Vakfı, İstanbul.
2. Addison, T., Murshed, S. M. (2001). From conflict to reconstruction: reviving the social contract. Mimeo, UNU/WIDER, 11 July, http://www.wider.unu.edu/publications /dps/dp2001-48.
3. Ahmed, N. (2018). State Propaganda in Syria: From war crimes to pipelines. London: International State Crime Initiative.
4. Akgün, M. (2016). Türkiye'nin Ortadoğu'daki yeni stratejisi, 27.08.2016, www.dw.com/tr /türkiyenin-ortadoğudaki-yeni-stratejisi/a-19507959
5. Alhadeff, I. (2016). The Myth of the Iran-Iraq-Syria Pipeline, https://iakal.wordpress.com/2016/08/14/the-myth-of-the-iran-iraq-syria-pipeline/
6. Aljazeera TURK. (2017). Türkiye- Rusya ilişkileri kriz sonrası 10 kritik aşama, 10 Mart 2017, www.aljazeera.com.tr.
7. Aljazeera. (2019). Ma'Ahamiyat Huqul Alnaft Alsuwrii Walimadha Yatahadath Eanha Turmib Biaistimrar? [What Is The Importance Of Syrian Oil Fields And Why Is Trump Talking About It Constantly?].http://mubasher.aljazeera.net/news/؟ما-أهمیة-حقول-النفط-السوریةولماذایتحدث -عنها-ترمب-باستمرار> (Accessed 1 June 2021).
8. Al-Khatteeb, L., Gordts, E. (2014). How ISIS uses oil to fund terror, Brookings, September 27, 2014, https://www.brookings.edu/on-the-record/how-isis-uses-oil-to-fund-terror/

9. Almohamad, H., Dittmann, A. (2016). Oil in Syria between terrorism and dictatorship, Social Sciences, 5, 20; doi:10.3390/socsci5020020
10. Asseburg, M. (2020). Reconstruction in Syria Challenges and Policy Options for the EU and its Member States, Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik German Institute for International and Security Affairs, SWP Research Paper 11 July 2020, Berlin. doi: 10.18449/2020RP11
11. Auty, R. M. (1998). ‘Resource abundance and economic development: ımproving the performance of resource-rich countries’, Research for Action 44, UNU/WIDER, Helsinki, http://www.wider.unu.edu /publications/rfa44.pdf.
12. Balanche, F. (2108). Sectarianism in Syria’s Civil War. Washington: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
13. BBC News (2019). Syria war: Who benefits from its oil production?, 21 November 2019, https://www.bbc.com/news/50464561
14. Bekin, D. (2016). Fırat Kalkanı Harekatı ve Ötesi, Milli Gazete, 24.12.2016, www.milligazete.com.tr/firat_kalkani_harekâti_ve_otesi/dogan_bekin/.../32464
15. Bodasiuk, K. (2019). Change in Russia's energy geopolitıics: The cases of Ukraine and Syria, Vytautas Magnus Universıty Faculty Of Political Science And Diplomacy Department Of Political Sciences, Final master’s thesis, Kaunas.
16. Buhaug, H., Gates, S. (2002). The geography of civil war, Journal of Peace Research, vol. 39, no. 4, 2002, pp. 417–433.
17. Buhaug, H., Gates, S., Lujala, P. (2005). Geography, strategic ambition, and the duration of civil conflict, Paper prepared for presentation at the “Mapping the Complexity of Civil Wars” International Conference, September 15-17, 2005, Zurich, Switzerland. A previous version of the paper was presented at the 2005 APSA Annual meeting, September 1-4, 2005, Washington, D.C.
18. Buhaug, H., Gates, S., Lujala, P. (2009). Geography, rebel capability, and the duration of civil conflict, Journal of Conflict Resolution, Volume 53, Number 4, 544-569, DOI: 10.1177/0022002709336457.
19. Buhaug, H., Lujala, P. (2005). Accounting for scale: measuring geography in quantitative studies of civil war. Political Geography, 24 (4), 399–418.
20. Cepurities, M. (2016). Russia’s strategy in Syria: Multiple aims, the war in Syria: Lessons for the West. In K. Andis. & P.Artis (Eds.), (pp.129-146).
21. CNN Türk. (2022). Akıl çemberi, https://www.cnnturk.com/akilcemberi.
22. Cochrane, P. (2018). The 'Pipelineistan' conspiracy: The war in Syria has never been about gas, Middle East Eye French edition. https://www.middleeasteye.net/big story/pipelineistan-conspiracy-war-syria-has-never-been-about-gas
23. Cohen, S.B. (1991). Global geopolitical change in the post-cold war era, Annals of the Associalion of American Geographers, 81(4), 551-580. DOI:10.1111/j.1467-8306.1991.tb01709.x
24. Collier, P. (2000). Doing well out of war: An economic perspective. In: Berdal MR and Malone DM (eds) Greed and Grievance: Economic Agendas in Civil Wars. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, pp.91–112
25. Collier, P., Hoeffler, A. (1998). On the economic causes of civil war. Oxford Economic Papers 50 (4), 563-73.
26. Daily Sabah, (2020). YPG causes fuel shortage in Syria's oil-rich Deir el Zour, Nov 18, 2020, https://www.dailysabah.com/politics/war-on-terror/ypg-causes-fuel-shortage-insyriasoil-rich-deir-elzour
27. Dertwinkel, T. (2009). Disaggregated perspectives on civil war and ethnic conflict: Prospects of an Emerging Research Agenda, JEMIE 8.
28. Di John, J. (2007). Oil abundance and violent political conflict: a critical assessment. Journal of Development Studies, 43 (6), 961–986.
29. EIA (U.S.) Energy Information Administration, 2010.
30. Erkmen, S. (2017). Türkiye, Rakka ve gerçekler. Retreived April 03, 2017 from www.dw.com/tr
31. Fearon, J. (2005). Primary commodity exports and civil war, Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 49, 483-507.
32. Gilmore, E., Lujala, P., Gleditsch, N. P., Rod, J. K. (2005). Conflict diamonds: a new dataset, Conflict Management and Peace Science, 22 (3), 257–292.
33. Gleditsch, K.S. (2007). Transnational dimensions of civil war, Journal of Peace Research, vol. 44, no. 3, pp.293–309, DOI 10.1177/0022343307076637.
34. Global Savunma. (2020). PKK/PYD ve yabancı terörist savaşçılar, https://www.globalsavunma.com.tr/pkk-pyd-ve-yabanci-terorist-savascilar.html.
35. Güler, M. Ç. (2019). The Geopolitical ımportance of the YPG- condrolled areas in Syria energy and water resources, and agriculturallands, SETA PERSPECTIVE, March 2019, No 52. www.setav.org
36. Güler, R. T., Özdemir, Ö. B. (2018). DEAŞ: Ortaya çıkışı, yükselişi ve çöküşü, Orta Doğu’da devlet dışı silahlı aktörler kitabı içinde (Yeşiltaş, M., Duran, B.), Ankara: SETA kitapları.
37. Hammadeh, A., Albakri, M. A. ( 2015). Deadly oil, theft of Syria’s future, economic forum, 2015. Available online: http://www.syrianef.org/En/wpcontent/uploads/2015/07 /petrol en.pdf (E.T. 23 Kasım 2021)
38. Harunoğulları, M. (2021). ABD ve Rusya’nın Suriye iç savaşına müdahalelerinin jeopolitik yaklaşımları. Ortadoğu ve Göç, 11(1), 43-84.
39. Hatahet, S. (2019). Russia and Iran: Economic ınfluence in Syria, Middle East and North Africa Programme | March 2019, Chatham House The Royal Institute of International Affairs.
40. Humphreys, M. (2005). Natural resources, conflict, and conflict resolution: uncovering the mechanisms, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 49 (4), 508–537.
41. IRENA (International Renewable Energy Agency). (2019). A New World The Geopolitics of the Energy Transformation, Report, www.geopoliticsofrenewables.org
42. Itani, F. (2019). Geo-economics: Russia and Iran in Syria, Syria Studies, Vol II, No I, pp. 23-31
43. Jaffe, A. M., Elass, J. (2015). Regional turmoil and realignment: Middle East conflicts and the new geopolitics of oil, Chapter in the 2015 Global Energy Forum Revolutionary Changes and Security Pathways. Washington, DC, pp. 40-71.
44. Karkazis, J., Vıdakis, I., Baltos, G. (2014). The Syrian energy policies of the “Four Seas” and theri geopolitical repercussions, Sosyo-Ekonomi, 2014-2, ss.105-116.
45. Kelly, B. R. (2017). Satellite imagery reveals decline in ISIS oil production, Princeton School of Public and International Affairs, https://spia.princeton.edu/news /satelliteimageryreveals-decline-isis-oilproduction.
46. Khan, H. U., Khan, W. (2017). Syria: history, the civil war and peace prospects, Journal of Political Studies, Vol. 24, Issue - 2, 587-601.
47. Klare, M. T. (2001a). Natural resources wars: The new landscape of global conflict. New York: Metropolitan Books. Klare, M.T. (2001b). The New Geography of Conflict. Foreign Affairs, May/June: 49–61.
48. Lawson, F. H. (2014). Implications of the 2011-13 Syrian Uprising for the Middle Eastern regional security complex, CIRS (Center for International and Regional Studies), Occasional Paper No. 14, ISSN 2072-5957.
49. Le Billon, P. (2001). The political ecology of war: natural resources and armed conflict. Political Geography, 20: 561–584.
50. Le Billon, P. (2008). Diamond wars? conflict diamonds and geographies of resource wars. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 98 (2), 345–372.
51. Liggett, A. (2015). Cheap Oil and the Impact on Rebuilding Syria, NAVAL WAR COLLEGE Newport, Rhode Island.
52. Lin, C. (2015). Syrian buffer zone – Turkey-Qatar pipeline, ISPSW Strategy Series: Focus on Defense and International Security, Issue No. 367, pp.1-5.
53. Lujala, P. (2009). Deadly combat over natural resources: Gems, petroleum, drugs, and the severity of armed civil conflict. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 53(1), 50-71.
54. Lujala, P., Rod, J. K.., Thieme, N. (2007). Fighting over oil: Introducing a new dataset. Conflict Management and Peace Science, 24 (3), 239–256.
55. Moradi, O. (2019). Who will control Syria's oil and gas? Rudaw, https://www.rudaw.net /english/analysis/13112019 14-11-2019.
56. Nakhle, C. (2015). ISIL Sells Its Oil, But Who Is Buying It?. Aljazeera. https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2015/12/isil-sells-oilbuying15120605540 3374.html.
57. O’Loughlin, J., Witmer, F. (2005). Taking ‘Geography’ seriously: disaggregating the study of civil wars, Paper presented at the conference on “Disaggregating the study of civil war and transnational violence”, University of California Institute of Global Conflict and Cooperation, La Jolla, CA.
58. Ohmura, H. (2018). "Natural resources and the dynamics of civil war duration and outcome", Asian Journal of Comparative Politics, 3 (2), 133-148.
59. Orhan, O. (2018). Suriye’de yeni çatışma dinamikleri ve Türkiye, Anadolu Ajansı, 16.02.2018https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/analiz-haber/suriye-de-yeni-catisma-dinamikleri-veturkiye/1065225
60. Parasiliti, A., Reedy, K., Wasser, B. (2017). Preventing State Collapse in Syria, Perspective . pp.1-20.
61. Perry, T. (2015). Syrian Kurds' Spending Plans Reflect Rising Ambition. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-kurds/syriankurds spending-plans-reflect-rising-ambition-idUSKCN0Q21BK20150728 (Accessed 15 August 2020).
62. Ross, M. L. (2001). How Does natural resource wealth ınfluence civil war?, December 2001 meeting of the Global Development Network in Rio de Janeiro.
63. Ross, M. L. (2004). What do we know about natural resources and civil war? Journal of Peace Research, 41 (3), 337–356.
64. Ross, M. L. (2006). A closer look at oil, diamonds, and civil war. Annual Review of Political Science, 9: 265–300.
65. Said, S. (2019). Introduction, in Chapter Local Economies in Syria Divisions and Dependencies, Published in September 2019 by Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, ss. 4-16.
66. Samset, I. (2009). Natural resource wealth, conflict, and peacebuilding, The Graduate Center, Program on States and Security, Ralph Bunche Institute for International Studies.
67. San-Akca, B., Sever, S. D., Yılmaz, S. (2020). Does natural gas fuel civil war? Rethinking energy security, international relations, and fossil-fuel conflict, Energy Research & Social Science 70, 101690. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2020.101690.
68. Sayıgh, Y. (2015). The War Over Syria's Gas Fields, Carnegie Middle Eastt Center, June 08, 2015, https://carnegie-mec.org/diwan/60316.
69. Shaar, K. (2019). The Syrian oil crisis causes, possible responses, and implications, Middle East Institute Policy Paper, Washington, D.C, 2019-17
70. Shaban, F. (2019). The oil and natural gas conflict in Syria: Reality or Illusion, Ortadoğu Araştırmaları Merkezi –ORSAM, https://orsam.org.tr/en/the-oil-and-natural-gas-conflict-insyria-reality-or-illusion/
71. Sogoloff, N. (2017). Russia's Energy Goals in Syria, Washington Institute, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/fikraforum/view/russias-energy-goals-in-syria.
72. Taylor, R. (2014). Pipeline politics in Syria, Armed Forces Journal, March 21, 2014, http://www. armedforcesjournal.com/pipeline-politics-in-syria/
73. Tinawi, H. (2020). How if at all did natural resources affect the duration and intensity of the Syrian civil war? https://www.researchgate.net/publication/345251426
74. UCDP, (2020). Uppsala Conflict Data Program, https://ucdp.uu.se/country/652, E.T. 10.08.2021
75. UCDP, (2021). Uppsala Conflict Data Program, https://ucdp.uu.se/country/652, E.T. 10.08.2021
76. Vehnämäkı, M. (2002). Diamonds and warlords: The Geography of War in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Sierra Leone, Nordic Journal of African Studies, 11(1), 48-74.
77. Voltairenet.org. (2019). Syria takes back its oil fields, https://www.voltairenet. org/article208090.html.
78. Von Bernuth, L. (2017). Syria: It’s all about the gas pipelines, Itizen Truth Alternative News for Free Thinkers, Independents, and Political Misfits. April 8, 2017, https://citizentruth.org/syria-oil-pipelines/
79. Weinstein, J. M. (2007). Inside rebellion: The politics of insurgent violence. New York:Cambridge University Press.
80. Yavuz, C. (2005). Geçmişten Geleceğe Suriye-Türkiye İlişkileri, Ankara: Ankara Ticaret Odası.
81. Zemach, S. (2016). Toward an eastern mediterranean iıntegrated gas infrastructure?, Foreign and Security Policy Paper, No:20, http://www.gmfus.org/ listings/research /type/publication
82. Zwijnenburg, W. (2017). Conflict and environment related issues in the Middle East, https://www.bellingcat.com/news/mena/2017/10/18/hazardous-legacies-open-source-overview-destruction-deir-ez-zors-oil-industry/