Türkiye’de Maksimum-Minimum Sıcaklık Ortalamaları ve Yağış Tutarının Google Earth Engine ile 2040 Yılı Modellemesi

Öz

Son yıllarda etkisini giderek artıran küresel iklim değişikliği, artık insanlığın önlem alması ve uyum çabalarını artırması gereken bir problem haline gelmiştir. Daha uzun süre maruz kalınan sıcak hava dalgaları, sıcak hava dalgaları ile birlikte sıklığı giderek artan orman yangınları, kuraklık, şiddetli yağışlar, sel ve heyelan olayları iklimsel parametrelerdeki farklılaşmaların en belirgin göstergeleridir. İklim değişikliğinin Dünya’nın farklı alanlarında farklı sonuçları ortaya çıksa da, Türkiye’nin içinde bulunduğu Akdeniz Havzası bu değişikliklerden en fazla etkilenmesi beklenen sahalardandır. Türkiye'nin sıcaklık ve yağış iklim değişkenleri üzerine gelecek öngörüsü sunmak ve olası farklılaşmaları belirlemek çalışmanın amacını oluşturmaktadır. Bilimsel kuruluşlar tarafından geliştirilen modeller ve uygulanan emisyon senaryoları, gelecekte yaşanabilecek olası değişikliklerin tahmini için önemli metotlardır. Araştırmada Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) projesi kapsamında yer alan modellere ve senaryolara ait çoklu model ortalaması kullanılmıştır. Analizlere dahil edilen emisyon senaryoları RCP4.5 ve RCP8.5’tir. Çalışmaya ait analizler Google Earth Engine bulut işletim sistemi ile gerçekleştirilmiş ve ArcGIS 10.4 programı ile haritalanmıştır. Yapılan analizler sonucunda 2005-2040 döneminde Türkiye, bugünkü ortalamalara göre daha sıcak günler ile karşı karşıya kalacaktır. Maksimum sıcaklık ortalamalarındaki artış trendi daha kuvvetlidir. Akdeniz kıyılarında görülen iklim şartları ilerleyen yıllarda etki sahasını Ege ve Marmara bölgelerine doğru genişletecektir. Doğu Anadolu Bölgesi’nde minimum sıcaklık ortalamalarında daha kuvvetli artışlar yaşanacaktır. Yağış miktarlarında Akdeniz-Ege kıyıları ve iç bölgelerde azalma, Doğu Karadeniz kıyılarında kısmen artışlar görülecektir. Genel olarak bütün Türkiye arazisinin ortalama yağışı dikkate alındığında, pozitif ya da negatif yönde bir eğilim mevcut değildir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• CMIP5
• iklim modellemesi
• Google Earth Engine
• iklim değişikliği

2040 Modeling of Maximum-Minimum Temperature Averages and Precipitation Amount in Turkey with Google Earth Engine

Öz

Global climate change, which has been increasing its impact in recent years, has become a problem that humanity must take precautions and increase its adaptation efforts. The most prominent indicators of the differences in climatic parameters are heat waves that last longer, forest fires, droughts, heavy rainfall, floods and landslides that increase in frequency with heat waves. Although climate change has different consequences in different parts of the world, the Mediterranean Basin, in which Turkey is located, is one of the areas expected to be most affected by these changes. The aim of this study is to provide future projections on Turkey's temperature and precipitation climate variables and to determine the possible differentiations. Models developed by scientific organizations and emission scenarios applied are important methods for predicting possible future changes. In the study, multiple model averages of the models and scenarios included in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) project were used. The emission scenarios included in the analysis are RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The analyses of the study were carried out with Google Earth Engine cloud operating system and mapped with ArcGIS 10.4 program. As a result of the analysis, Turkey will face warmer days in the period 2005-2040 compared to today's averages. The upward trend in maximum temperature averages is stronger. The climatic conditions observed on the Mediterranean coasts will expand their sphere of influence towards the Aegean and Marmara regions in the coming years. Eastern Anatolia will experience stronger increases in minimum temperature averages. Precipitation will decrease in the Mediterranean-Aegean coasts and inland regions, and partially increase in the Eastern Black Sea coasts. In general, there is no positive or negative trend when the average precipitation of the whole area of Turkey is taken into consideration.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• CMIP5
• climate modeling
• Google Earth Engine
• climate change

Kaynakça

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