Heyelan Duyarlılığının Değerlendirilmesinde Analitik Hiyerarşi Süreci (AHP) ve Frekans Oranı (FR) Yöntemlerinin Karşılaştırılması: Erzincan Kemah-Kömür Dere Havzasında Örnek Bir Çalışma

Abstract

Bu çalışma, Erzincan-Kemah Kömür Dere Havzası'nda heyelan duyarlılığını haritalamak amacıyla Analitik Hiyerarşi Süreci (AHP) ve Frekans Oranı (FR) yöntemlerini karşılaştırmaktadır. Modellerin performansı, Alıcı İşletim Karakteristiği (ROC) eğrisi, F1-Skoru ve çakışma oranı analizi gibi metriklerle kapsamlı bir şekilde değerlendirilmiştir. Sonuçlar, istatistiksel tabanlı FR modelinin Eğri Altındaki Alan (AUC = 0.884, F1-Skoru = 0.87), uzman görüşüne dayalı AHP modeline (AUC = 0.699, F1-Skoru = 0.68) göre tüm metriklerde önemli ölçüde daha yüksek performans gösterdiğini ortaya koymuştur. Modellerin pratik geçerliliğini gösteren çakışma oranı analizinde, mevcut heyelan alanlarının %92.7'si FR haritasındaki 'Yüksek' ve 'Çok Yüksek' duyarlılık sınıfları içinde yer alırken, bu oran AHP haritasında %73.7 olarak bulunmuştur. Bu bulgular, FR yönteminin bölgedeki riskli alanların tespiti ve arazi kullanım planlaması için güvenilir ve hassas bir araç olduğunu kanıtlamaktadır.

Keywords

• Analitik Hiyerarşi Süreci (AHP)
• Frekans Oranı (FR)
• Heyelan
• Kemah
• Erzincan.

Ethical Statement

Etik kurul onayı gerekmemektedir.

Comparison Of Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) And Frequency Ratio (FR) Methods In Landslide Susceptibility Assessment: A Case Study In Kemah-Kömür Stream Basin, Erzincan

Abstract

This study compares the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Frequency Ratio (FR) methods for landslide susceptibility mapping in the Kömür Stream Basin, Kemah-Erzincan. The performance of the models was comprehensively evaluated using metrics including the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve, F1-Score, and overlap rate analysis. The results revealed that the statistics-based FR model Area Under the Curve (AUC) = 0.884, F1-Score = 0.87 significantly outperformed the expert opinion-based AHP model (AUC = 0.699, F1-Score = 0.68) for across all metrics. In the overlap rate analysis, which demonstrates the practical validity of the models, 92.7% of the existing landslide areas fell within the 'High' and 'Very High' susceptibility classes on the FR map compared to 73.7% on the AHP map. These findings prove that the FR method is a reliable and precise tool for identifying high-risk areas and for land-use planning in the region.

Keywords

• Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)
• Frequency Ratio
• (FR)
• Landslides
• Kemah
• Erzincan.

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