Transformation of Industrial Cities toward Tourism City: A Simulation for Kocaeli

Abstract

Urbans areas change over time under the influence of many factors such as economic, political, environmental, etc. While economic dynamics supports vitality and development, it makes alternative approaches necessary when the optimal limits are reached. Hence, urban transformation as a policy tool can be applied in terms of revealing the unused potential that the city has when cities begin to lose their economic vitality. When industrialization turns to be unsustainable due to demographic and environmental impacts, alternative sectors are needed to avoid recession and decline. This study aims to determine the possibility of making use of tourism potential of Kocaeli, one of the industrial centers of Turkiye. For a benchmark simulation with Bursa, another industrial city located geographically close to Kocaeli, the data on the total number of domestic, foreign and total tourists; the total number of domestic, foreign and overnight tourist stays; average length of stay; occupancy rate; number of facilities and investment certificates obtained from Ministry of Culture and Tourism for the period 2004-2022 were used, and estimates were made for the period 2023-2040 using the Holt model, with ETS (Exponential Smoothing Method). Based on the forecast results, the future of Kocaeli province in terms of tourism is compared with Bursa and the potential of becoming a tourism city is discussed.

Keywords

• urban
• transformation
• tourism
• ındustry
• Kocaeli
• Holt Method

Sanayi Şehirlerinin Turizm Şehrine Dönüşümü: Kocaeli İçin Simülasyon

Abstract

Sanayi sektöründe başlayan gelişme, nüfus ve çevresel etkiler nedeniyle sürdürülemez hale geldiğinde alternatif sektörlere geçilmezse kentsel alan durgunluk ve gerileme yaşayabilir. Bu düşünceden hareketle, bu çalışmada, Türkiye’nin önemli sanayi merkezlerinden Kocaeli’nin turizm potansiyelini kullanarak gelecekte olası turizm şehri olma imkanının belirlenmesi amaçlanmaktadır. Coğrafi olarak yakın konumdaki bir başka sanayi kenti olan Bursa ile karşılaştırmalı bir simülasyon için Kocaeli’nin, Kültür ve Turizm Bakanlığı’ndan temin edilen 2004-2022 dönemine ait tesise gelen yerli, yabancı, toplam turist sayısı; yerli, yabancı, toplam turist geceleme sayısı; ortalama kalış süresi; doluluk oranı; turizm işletme ve yatırım belgeli tesis sayısı verileri kullanılmış ve Holt Üstel Düzeltme Tahmin yöntemi ile 2023-2040 dönemi için tahminler gerçekleştirilmiştir. Tahmin sonuçlarından hareketle Kocaeli ilinin turizm açısından geleceği Bursa ile karşılaştırılıp, turizm şehri olma potansiyeli tartışılmaktadır.

Keywords

• Kocaeli
• Holt Yöntemi
• Kentsel Yapısal Değişim
• turizm
• sanayi şehirleri

References

1. ARETE (2024). Temel İstatistiksel Tahmin Süreçleri, http://arete.com.tr/blog-temel-istatistiksel-tahmin-sürecleri/, 05.05.2024.
2. Armstrong, S. J., (2009). Selecting Forecasting Methods, SSRN Electronic Journal, DOI:10.2139 /ssrn.1941247. Baird Matthew, Keating E., Bogdan O. ve Resnick A. (2017). The Effects of Travel and Tourism on California’s Economy. Santa Monica, Cliff: RandCorporation,https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1854.html, 03.07.2022.
3. Bailey, Christopher, Miles, S. ve Stark, P. (2004). Culture‐Led Urban Regeneration and the Revitalisation of Identities in Newcastle, Gateshead and The North East of England. International Journal of Cultural Policy, 10 (1), 47–65.
4. Batty, M. (2007). The Creative Destruction of Cities. Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, 34(1), 2-5.
5. Bertoldi, B., Elisa C. ve Russo, G. (2009). Managing Culture Heritage Thinking to Community Benefits. Two Innovative Methods to Quantify Impact on Tourism and on Private Properties in a Wider EIM Model for Turin. N. 3/2009, http://dx.doi.org/10.4485/ea2038-5498.43-65.
6. Biles, R. (2014). Expressways before the Interstates: The Case of Detroit, 1945–1956. Journal of Urban History, 40(5), 843-854.
7. Brown, R. G., Meyer, R. F. ve D’Esopo, D. A. (1961). The Fundamental Theorem of Exponential Smoothing. Operations Research, 9(5), 673- 687.
8. Bülbül, Ş. (1994). Zaman Serilerinde Üstel Düzeltme Modelleri ve Bir Uygulama, Öneri Dergisi, 1(1), 44-51.

9. Chen, Y. ve Marjolein, S. (2009). Mega-Event Strategy as a Tool of Urban Transformation: Sydney’s Experience: Amsterdam/Delft, IFoU.
10. Clancy, M. (2001).Mexican Tourism: Export Growth and Structural Change since 1970. Latin American Research Review, 36(1), 128-150.
11. Cohen, S. (2005). Country at the Heart of the City: Music, Heritage, and Regeneration in Liverpool. Ethnomusicology, 49(1), 25-48.
12. Detroit Future City (2013). Detroit Future City- 2012 Detroit Strategic Framework Plan. Detroit: Inland Press.
13. Garay, L. ve Canoves, G. (2011). Life cycles, stages and tourism history: The Catalonia (Spain) Experience. Annals of Tourism Research, 38(2), 651-671.
14. Gardner, E.S.J. (1985), Exponential Smoothing The State of Art, Journal of Forecasting, 4, 1-28.
15. Gardner, E. S.J. ve McKenzie, E.(1988). Model Identification in Exponential Smoothing, The Journal of the Operational Research Society, 39(9), 863-867.
16. Gladstone, D. L. ve Fainstein S. S. (2001). Tourism in US Global Cities: A Comparison of New York and Los Angeles. Journal Of Urban Affairs, 23(1), 23-40.
17. Gonzalez, S. (2011). Bilbao and Barcelona ‘in Motion’. How Urban Regeneration ‘Models’ Travel and Mutate in the Global Flows of Policy Tourism. Urban Studies, 48(7), 1397-1418.
18. Goodspeed, R.C. (2004). Urban Renewal in Postwar Detroit the Gratiot Area Redevelopment Project: A Case Study. A Paper of University of Michigan,http://goodspeedupdate.com/RobGoodspeedHonorsThesis.pdf, 20.2.2020.
19. Hall, P. (2000). Creative Cities and Economic Development. Urban Studies, 37(4), 639-649. Hamilton, J. M., Maddison, D. J., ve Tol, R.S.J. (2005). Climate Change and International Tourism: a Simulation Study. Global Environmental Change, 15, 253–266.
20. Hoffman, Lily M., ve Musil, J. (2009). Prague, Tourism and the Post-industrial City. A Great Cities Institute Working Paper, https://greatcities.uic.edu/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/GCP-09-05_Hoffman_Musil.pdf /03.03.2015.
21. Hyndman, R. J., Koehler, A. B., Snyder, R. D. ve Grose, S. (2002). A State Space Framework For Automatic Forecasting Using Exponential Smoothing Methods, International Journal of Forecasting, 18, 439-454.
22. Hyndman, R. J., ve Koehler, A. B. (2006). Another Look At Measures Of Forecast Accuracy, International Journal Of Forecasting, 22, 679- 688.
23. Hyndman, R. J., Koehler, Ord, K. J., ve Snyder, R.D. (2008). Forecasting with Exponential Smoothing, The State Space Approach, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.
24. IBM, (2024). What is Forecasting ?. https://www.ibm.com/think/topics/forecasting, 20.11.2024.
25. Kandelaars, P. P.A.A.H. (1997). A Dynamic Simulation Model of Tourism and Environment in the Yucatan Peninsula. Interım Report: IR-97-18.
26. Kazimierczak, J. (2012). The Influence of the Revitalization of Former Industrial Urban Areas on New Urban and Tourism Spaces: Case Studies of Manchester and Lyon. Tourism, 22(1), 11-20.
27. KOCAELİ. KTB (2025). Kocaeli, Genel Bilgiler, https://kocaeli.ktb.gov.tr/TR-69185/genel-bilgiler.html, 2.2.2025.
28. Kronenberg, Kai (2019). A Quantity-Quality Framework for Measuring the Regional Socioeconomic Impact of Tourism – the Case of Jamtland Harjedalen. Thesis for Licentiate degree in Tourism Studies, Mid Sweden University, Östersund.
29. Kuznets, S. (1959). On Comparative Study of Economic Structure and Growth of Nations. National Bureau of Economic Research, http://www.nber.org/chapters/c4421.pdf /1.9.2015.
30. KTBYİGM (2023). T.C. Kültür ve Turizm Bakanlığı Turizm İstatistikleri Sistemi, (Rapor Talebi Edinme Yoluyla), https://is.kultur.gov.tr/ktbyigm/public/login.xhtml, 07.12.2023.
31. Law, C. M. (2000). Regenerating the City Centre through Leisure and Tourism. Built Environment, 26(2), 117-129.
32. Lewis, A. (1954). Economic Development with Unlimited Supplies of Labour. http://www.globelicsacademy.net/2008/2008_lectures/lewis%20unlimited%20labor%20supply%201954.pdf /5.10.2015.
33. Manchester City Council (2012). Manchester Core Strategy 2012 to 2027. Manchester’s Local Development Framework- Core Strategy Development and Plan Document. Manchester: Manchester City Council.
34. McCarthy, J.,ve Pollock, S.H.A. (1997). Urban Regeneration in Glasgow and Dundee: A Comparative Evaluation. Land Use Policy, 14(2), 137-149.
35. McCormick, K., Anderberg, S., Coenen, L. Ve Neij, L. (2013). Advancing Sustainable Urban Transformation. Journal of Cleaner Production, 50: 1-11.
36. Mehdipour, A., ve Nia, H. R. (2013). Industrialization and City Change; the Concept and Historical Evolution of Urban Regeneration. International Journal of Sciences: Basic and Applied Research, 12(1), 176-181.
37. Meydan, Y.A. (2007). Talep Tahmin Yöntemleri ve Orta Ölçekli Bir İşletmede Uygulanması. FBE Endüstri Mühendisliği, İstanbul Ticaret Üniversitesi, Yüksek Lisans Tezi, İstanbul.
38. Montgomery, M. R. (2008). The Urban Transformation of the Developing World. Science, 319: 761-763.
39. Morley, I. (2005). Post-Industrial Urbanism and the Growth of Sustainability: Historical Trends, Present and Future Observations. Journal of Futures Studies, 9(4), 75-80.
40. Neves, M. M.,ve Clara, C. (2010). Exponential Smoothing and Resampling Techniques in Time Series Prediction. Discussiones Mathematicae Probability and Statistics, 30, 87–101.
41. OECD (2012). Redefining Urban: A New Way to Measure Metropolitan Areas. Paris: OECD Publishing.
42. OPENFORECAST (2024). Several Examples of ETS And Related Exponential Smoothing Methods, /https://openforecast.org/adam/ETSExamples.html/, 20.11.2024.
43. OTEXT (2024). Holt-Winters’ Seasonal Method, /https://otexts.com/fpp2/holt-winters.html/, 20.11.2024.
44. Pasinetti, L. L. (1993). Structural Economic Dynamics: A Theory of the Economic Consequences of Human Learning. Cambridge: University of Cambridge Press.
45. Richards, G.., ve Wilson, J.. (2006). Developing Creativity in Tourist Experiences: A Solution to the Serial Reproduction of Culture., Tourism Management, 27(6), 1209-1223.
46. Rostow, W. W. (1959). The Stages of Economic Growth. The Economic History Review, New Series, 12(1), 1-16.
47. Russo, A.P., ve Borgb, J.V.D. (2002). Planning Considerations for Cultural Tourism: A Case Study of Four European Cities. Tourism Management, 2, 631- 637.
48. Salins, P. D. (2018). Rethinking Urban Planning in Detroit and Beyond, in UrbanPolicy,https://media4.manhattaninstitute.org/sites/default/files/MI_Urban_Policy_2018.pdf/, 20.10.2019.
49. Santana, G. (2003). Tourism Development in Coastal Areas - Brazil: Economic, Demand and Environmental Issues. Journal of Coastal Research, 35, 85-93.
50. Sassen, S. (1990). Economic Restructuring and The American City. Annual Review of Sociology, 16(1), 465-490.
51. Slager, E. J. (2013). Touring Detroit: Representation, and Redevelopment (MA Thesis), Department of Geography and Graduate School of University of Oregon.
52. Soysal, M. ve Ömürgönülşen, M. (2010). Türk Turizm Sektöründe Talep Tahmini Üzerine Bir Uygulama. Anatolia: Turizm Araştırmaları Dergisi, 21(1), 128-136.
53. Sreekumar T. T., ve Parayil, G. (2002). Contentions and Contradictions of Tourism as Development Option: The Case of Kerala, India. Third World Quarterly, 23(3), 529-548.
54. Stock, M. (2007). European Cities: Towards a Recreational Turn?. Hagar. Studies in Culture, Polity and Identities, 7 (1), 115-134.
55. TÜSİAD, TYDD (2019). Turizmde Dönüşüm Senaryoları Raporu, https://tusiad.org/tr/yayinlar/raporlar/item/10504-ttyd-tusiad turizmde-donusum-senaryolari-raporu, (6.1.2021).
56. UN (2014).World Urbanization Prospects: The 2014 Revision. New York: United Nation. Vermeijden, B. (2001). Dutch Urban Renewal, Transformation of The Policy Discourse 1960-2000. Journal of Housing and the Built Environment, 16(2), 203-232.
57. Wallace, E., Pollock, K., Horth,B., Carthy, S. ve Elyas, N. (2014). Los Angeles Tourism A Domestic and International Analysis. /https://lachamber.com/clientuploads/Global_Programs/WTW/2014/LATourism_LMU_May2014.pdf/, (05.05.2020).
58. Yılmaz, M.B. ve Çilengiroğlu, Ö.V. (2022). Talep Tahminleme Değişkenlerinin Üssel Düzeltme Yöntemi ile Belirlenmesi. Euroasia Journal of Mathematics, Engineering, Natural & Medical Sciences, 9(22), 92-103.