Transformation of Industrial Cities toward Tourism City: A Simulation for Kocaeli

Öz

Urbans areas change over time under the influence of many factors such as economic, political, environmental, etc. While economic dynamics supports vitality and development, it makes alternative approaches necessary when the optimal limits are reached. Hence, urban transformation as a policy tool can be applied in terms of revealing the unused potential that the city has when cities begin to lose their economic vitality. When industrialization turns to be unsustainable due to demographic and environmental impacts, alternative sectors are needed to avoid recession and decline. This study aims to determine the possibility of making use of tourism potential of Kocaeli, one of the industrial centers of Turkiye. For a benchmark simulation with Bursa, another industrial city located geographically close to Kocaeli, the data on the total number of domestic, foreign and total tourists; the total number of domestic, foreign and overnight tourist stays; average length of stay; occupancy rate; number of facilities and investment certificates obtained from Ministry of Culture and Tourism for the period 2004-2022 were used, and estimates were made for the period 2023-2040 using the Holt model, with ETS (Exponential Smoothing Method). Based on the forecast results, the future of Kocaeli province in terms of tourism is compared with Bursa and the potential of becoming a tourism city is discussed.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• urban
• transformation
• tourism
• ındustry
• Kocaeli
• Holt Method

Sanayi Şehirlerinin Turizm Şehrine Dönüşümü: Kocaeli İçin Simülasyon

Öz

Sanayi sektöründe başlayan gelişme, nüfus ve çevresel etkiler nedeniyle sürdürülemez hale geldiğinde alternatif sektörlere geçilmezse kentsel alan durgunluk ve gerileme yaşayabilir. Bu düşünceden hareketle, bu çalışmada, Türkiye’nin önemli sanayi merkezlerinden Kocaeli’nin turizm potansiyelini kullanarak gelecekte olası turizm şehri olma imkanının belirlenmesi amaçlanmaktadır. Coğrafi olarak yakın konumdaki bir başka sanayi kenti olan Bursa ile karşılaştırmalı bir simülasyon için Kocaeli’nin, Kültür ve Turizm Bakanlığı’ndan temin edilen 2004-2022 dönemine ait tesise gelen yerli, yabancı, toplam turist sayısı; yerli, yabancı, toplam turist geceleme sayısı; ortalama kalış süresi; doluluk oranı; turizm işletme ve yatırım belgeli tesis sayısı verileri kullanılmış ve Holt Üstel Düzeltme Tahmin yöntemi ile 2023-2040 dönemi için tahminler gerçekleştirilmiştir. Tahmin sonuçlarından hareketle Kocaeli ilinin turizm açısından geleceği Bursa ile karşılaştırılıp, turizm şehri olma potansiyeli tartışılmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Kocaeli
• Holt Yöntemi
• Kentsel Yapısal Değişim
• turizm
• sanayi şehirleri

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