A Financial Analysis on Chinese Steel Markets and the German Automobile Industry

Year 2025, Volume: 7 Issue: 2, 268 - 285, 30.08.2025

Olcay Ölçen

https://doi.org/10.38009/ekimad.1733639

Abstract

International relations, supply chains, and marketing can have direct impacts on today's automotive industry. Therefore, market participants must monitor and evaluate complementary industrial structures and commodities such as Brent crude oil, metals, and the import and export characteristics of these commodities. This article analyses the financial returns of three automotive giants on the major exchanges and the returns of Chinese steel futures as a commodity. It is interesting to note that the economic movements of steel, the industry's main commodity, are statistically insignificant for two automotive giants and insignificant for one. The analysis utilises the Markov Regime Switching Model. These models are used to provide additional insight into data relationships under certain conditions, such as non-stationarity, heteroskedasticity, and structural change, by dividing the data into regimes. This research addresses the research gap regarding the financial relationship between the stock returns of automotive giants and the dominant market returns of their major complements.

Keywords

German Automobile Industry , Chinese Steel Market , Markov Switching Regression

Çin Çelik Piyasaları ve Alman Otomobil Endüstrisi Üzerine Finansal Bir Analiz

Abstract

Uluslararası ilişkiler, tedarik zincirleri ve pazarlama, bugün otomobil endüstrisi üzerinde doğrudan etkilere sahip olabilir. Bu nedenle, piyasa katılımcıları Brent petrol, metaller ve bu emtiaların ithalat ve ihracat özellikleri gibi tamamlayıcı endüstriyel yapıları ve emtiaları izlemeli ve değerlendirmelidir. Bu makale, üç otomobil devinin ana borsadaki finansal getirilerini ve bir emtia olarak Çin çelik vadeli işlemlerinin getirilerini analiz etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Endüstrinin ana emtiası olan çeliğin ekonomik hareketlerinin istatistiksel olarak iki otomobil deviyle önemsiz ve birisiyle ilişkili olması ilginçtir. Analiz bölümünde, Markov Rejim Değiştirme Modeli kullanılmıştır. Bu modeller, verileri rejimlere bölerek durağan olmama, heteroskedastisite ve yapısal değişim gibi belirli koşullarda veri ilişkileri için ek bilgi sağlamak için kullanılır. Bu araştırmanın yapılmasıyla, otomobil devlerinin hisse senedi getirileri ile ana tamamlayıcılarının baskın piyasa getirileri arasındaki finansal ilişki hakkındaki araştırma boşluğu doldurulmaktadır.

Keywords

Alman Otomobil Endüstrisi , Çin Çelik Piyasası , Markov Switching Regresyon

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