Integrated Emission and Cost Analysis of Battery-Electric Vehicles up to 2035

Year 2025, Volume: 5 Issue: 3, 111 - 122, 30.09.2025

Oğuz Kürşat Demirci

https://doi.org/10.64808/engineeringperspective.1753723

Abstract

This study quantifies when battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) reach total cost of ownership (TCO) parity with their internal-combustion counterparts and characterises the cradle-to-grave greenhouse-gas (GHG) intensity trajectory to 2035. Our contribution is a transparent, Python-based framework that integrates battery-cost learning, ownership eco-nomics and life-cycle impacts within a harmonised scenario set, and links them to policy timing, ISO 15118-20-ready bidirectional charging and power-system carbon intensity. Drawing on a systematic synthesis of 221 peer-reviewed sources (2013–2025), the model runs annually for a representative C-segment BEV across three scenarios (Reference, Fast-Progress, Slow-Progress; 2024–2035). The results indicate that, under the median battery-pack price learning tra-jectory, BEV TCO falls below the ICE benchmark around 2029 (2028–2032 across scenarios), while life-cycle GHG intensity declines from approximately 73 to 34 g CO2-eq km-1 by 2035, spanning 29–42 g km-1 depending on grid de-carbonisation. Global sensitivity analysis identifies battery price as the principal driver of TCO outcomes and grid carbon intensity as the principal driver of emissions outcomes. Results are reported for three regional aggregates (OECD average, EU-27 and China), and the policy discussion highlights contrasts for the United States to contextual-ise cross-market differences. Policy alignment on three fronts—parity-linked purchase-incentive phase-outs, rapid deployment of ISO 15118-20-ready bidirectional charging, and stronger recycled-content targets—shortens time to cost competitiveness and amplifies the climate benefits of large-scale electrification.

Keywords

Battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) , Circular battery economy , Grid decarbonisation , Life-cycle greenhouse-gas emis-sions , Total cost of ownership (TCO)

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