LEARNING ABOUT THE BULLWHIP EFFECT USING COLORED PETRI NET SIMULATOR

Year 2015, Volume: 2 , 27 - 35, 01.09.2015

Dragana Makajıć-nıkolıć Biljana Panıć Bisera Andrıć Gušavac İvana Kovačevıć

Abstract

Colored Petri Net (CPN) simulator for study and analysis of supply chain
processes is described in this paper and some experimental results obtained by
its use are presented. This CPN simulator is one version of the well-known beer
game and overcomes some shortcomings we have noticed playing other beer games.
The beer game is a role-play simulation game that lets students (or managers as
well) experience typical coordination problems of supply chains.  Supply chain consists of four stages (or
co-makers): retailer, wholesaler, distributor and manufacturer. The simulator
allows calculation of different supply chain performances. It is developed
using a timed, hierarchical colored Petri Net and CPN Tools software package.
The CPN structure developed and presented in this paper consists of one top
page and 17 sub-pages in four hierarchical levels, which models decomposition of
observed supply chain in sub-processes. For each stage, demand forecasting
methods, replenishment policies, production and delivery times, inventory
costs, and customer’s demand may be defined and given as input data for
simulation run. In CPN Simulator we have used three strategies for demand
forecasting. First strategy is based just on the past demand and second and
third strategies are based on adaptive time series method: Moving Average and
Exponential Smoothing Methods. We conducted three groups of experiments, every
group for a different strategy of demand forecasting and for every group we
experimented with several different parameters. The simulation results are
exported to Excel and its visual presentation and expressive reporting
capabilities are used. This package is aimed for evaluation of different
management strategies in a supply chain, as well as for educational purposes.
This developed model can efficiently be used for teaching the bullwhip effect
not only to undergraduate and graduate students, but managers as well.

Keywords

Supply chain, bullwhip effect, petri net

References

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