Research Article
BibTex RIS Cite

Acceleration loss in the China’s economic growth: The impact of export-government expenditures, Toda-Yamamoto causality test

Year 2019, Issue: 54, 461 - 486, 31.12.2019

Dilek Temiz Dinç

https://doi.org/10.18070/erciyesiibd.546330

Abstract

China had a significant
economic growth performance with its successful reforms and outward policy.
However, the growth rate has started to slow down since 2010. Despite there are
several reasons for this loss of momentum in growth, decline in China's export
growth rate and government expenditure can be considered among the main
reasons. In this study, the causality relationship between China's exports,
government expenditures and economic growth was investigated with Toda-Yamamoto
causality test. In the study, the annual data were used covering the period of
1960-2017. As a result of empirical analyzes, a two-way causality relationship
was found between China's economic growth and government expenditures, a
one-way causality relationship from exports to economic growth. Accordingly,
the relationship between China's economic growth and government expenditures
supports both Wagner and Keynes's hypotheses, while the relationship between
economic growth and exports supports the export-led growth hypothesis. In the
study, it is concluded that the effect of exports on China's economic growth is
more than the effect of government expenditures by the analysis of variance
decomposition.

Keywords

Economic Growth Exports Government Expenditures Toda-Yamamoto Causality Test Variance Decomposition

References

  • ABIZADEH, Sohrab ve YOUSEFI, Mahmood; (1998), “An Empirical Analysis Of South Korea’s Economic Development And Public Expenditures Growth”, Journal of Socio Economics, 27(6), pp. 687-700.
  • AFXENTIOUS, Panayiotis. C. ve SERLETIS, Apostolos; (1991), “Exports and GNP Causality in The Industrial Countries: 1950-1985”, Kyklos, 44 (2), pp. 167-179.
  • AĞAYEV, Seymur; (2011), “İhracat ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: 12 Geçiş Ekonomisi Örneğinde Panel Eşbütünleşme ve Panel Nedensellik Analizleri”, Ege Akademik Bakış, 11(2), ss. 241-254.
  • AKBULUT, Seval; (2009), “1980 Sonrası Türkiye’de İhracata Dayalı Büyümenin Sektörler İtibariyle Ekonometrik Analizi”. Yayımlanmamış Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Karadeniz Teknik Üniversitesi, Trabzon.
  • AKSOY, Şerafettin; (1991), Kamu Maliyesi, İstanbul: Filiz Kitabevi.
  • AKTAŞ, Cengiz; (2009), “Türkiye'nin İhracat, İthalat ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki Nedensellik Analizi”, Kocaeli Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 18(2), ss. 35-47.
  • ALAGÖZ, Mehmet ve IŞIK, Nihat; (2005), “Kamu Harcamaları ve Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki”, Erciyes Üniversitesi, İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, 24, ss. 63-75.
  • ALEXIOU, Constantinos; (2009), “Government Spending and Economic Growth: Econometric Evidence From The South Eastern Europe (SEE)”, Journal of Economic and Social Research, 11(1), pp. 1-16.
  • ALTINTAŞ, Halil ve ÇETİNTAŞ, Hakan; (2010), “Türkiye’de Ekonomik Büyüme, Beşeri Sermaye ve İhracat Arasındaki İlişkilerin Ekonometrik Analizi: 1970-2007”, Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 36, ss. 33-56.
  • ARAN, Bozkurt; (2018), “ABD, Çin, Ticaret Savaşları ve Türkiye”, TEPAV, Türkiye Ekonomi Politikaları Araştırma Vakfı, N201813. https://www.tepav.org.tr/upload/files/1523348259-7.ABD__Cin__Ticaret_Savaslari_ve_Turkiye.pdf.
  • ARISOY, İbrahim; (2005a), “ Türkiye’de Kamu Harcamaları ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi (1950-2003)”, Türkiye Ekonomi Kurumu Tartışma Metni.
  • ARISOY, İbrahim; (2005b), “Wagner ve Keynes Hipotezleri Çerçevesinde Türkiye’de Kamu Harcamaları ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi”, Ç.Ü. Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 14 (2), ss. 63-80.
  • AYTAÇ, Ayhan; (2017), “Ekonomik Büyüme-İhracat İlişkisi: 2001-2016”, Social Sciences Research Journal, 6(4), ss. 214-222.
  • BAĞDIGEN, Muhlis ve ÇETİNTAŞ, Hakan; (2003), “Causality Between Public Expenditure and Economic Growth: The Turkish Case”, MPRA-Munich Personel RePEc Archive, Paper No. 8576.
  • BALASSA, Bela; (1978), “Exports and Economic Growth: Further Evidence”, Journal of Development Economics, 5(2), pp. 181-89.
  • BAHMANI-OSKOOEE Mohsen ve ALSE, Janardhanan; (1993), “Export Growth and Economic Growth: An Application of Cointegration and Error-Correction Modelling”, The Journal of Developing Areas, 27, pp. 535-542.
  • BAHMANI-OSKOOEE Mohsen ve OYOLOLA, Mmaharouf; (2007), “Export Growth and Output Growth: An Application of Bounds Testing Approach”, Journal of Economics and Finance, 1(31), pp. 1-11.
  • BARRO, Robert J.; (1991), “Economics Growth in A Cross-Section of Countries”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, May, pp. 407-443.
  • BAŞAR, Selim, AKSU, Hayati, TEMURLENK, M. Sinan ve POLAT, Özgür; (2009), “Türkiye’de Kamu Harcamaları ve Büyüme İlişkisi: Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı”, Atatürk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 13(1), ss. 301-314.
  • BERBEROĞLU, Murat, KARAKAYA, Aykut ve ER, Bunyamin; (2017), “Çin’den Yapılan İthalatın Türkiye’deki Firmaların Performansına Etkisi: İSO 1000 Araştırması”, İstanbul Üniversitesi İşletme Fakültesi İşletme Fakültesi İşletme İktisadı Enstitüsü Yönetim Dergisi, 82, ss. 1-41.
  • BOSE, Niloy, HAQUE, M. Emranul ve OSBORN, R. Denise; (2003), “Public Expenditure and Economic Growth: A Disaggregated Analysis For Developing Countries”, The Manchester School, 75(5), pp. 533-556.
  • BÜYÜKAKIN, Figen, BOZKURT, Hilal ve CENGİZ, Vedat; (2015), “Türkiye’de Parasal Aktarımın Faiz Kanalının Granger Nedensellik ve Toda-Yamamota Yöntemleri İle Analizi”, Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 33, ss. 101-118.
  • CHOW, Peter. C. Y.; (1987), “Causality Between Export Growth and Industrial Development: Empirical Evidence From The NICs”, Journal of Development Economics, 26(1), pp. 55-63.
  • CHRISTIE, Tamoya; (2012), “The Effect of Government Spending on Economic Growth: Testing The Non-Linear Hypothesis”, Bulletin of Economic Research, 66(2), pp. 1-22.
  • COLOMBATTO, Enrico; (1990). “An Analysis of Exports and Growth”. Kyklos, 43 (4), pp. 579-97.
  • COTSOMITIS, A. John, HARNHIRUN, Somchai ve KWAN C. C. Andy; (1996), “Co-Integration Analysis and The Long-Run Validity of Wagner's Hypothesis: Evidence From The People's Republic Of China”, Journal of Economic Development, 21(2), pp. 1-10.
  • ÇALIŞKAN, Şadan ve KARABACAK, Mustafa; (2017), “Türkiye Ekonomisinde Eğitim Harcamaları ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Bootstrap Toda-Yamamoto Nedensellik Testi Yaklaşımı”, KOSBED, 33, ss. 45 – 56.
  • DARRAT, Ali F.; (1987), “Are Exports Engine of Growth? Another Look At The Evidence”, Applied Economics, 19, pp. 277-83.
  • DENİZ, Yıldırım; (2015), “Çin’in ekonomik dönüşümü ve Üçüncü Dünya” Erişim adresi http://www.academia.edu/19629359/ÇİN_İN_EKONOMİK_DÖNÜŞÜMÜ_VE_Ü ÇÜNCÜ_DÜNYA
  • DICKEY, David. A. ve FULLER, Wayne A.; (1981), “Likelihood Ratio Statistics For Autoregressive Time Series With A Unit Root”, Econometrica, 49, pp. 1057-1072.
  • EĞİLMEZ, Mahfi; (2019), “Küresel Sistemde Çin Korkusu”, Kendime Yazılar, Ocak, Erişim adresi http://www.mahfiegilmez.com/2019/01/kuresel-sistemde-cin-korkusu.html.
  • ELLIOT, Graham, ROTHENBERG, Thomas J. ve STOCK, James H.; (1996), “Efficient Tests For An Autoregressive Unit Root”, Econometrica, 64, pp. 813-836.
  • EMERY, Robert F.; (1967), “The Relation of Exports And Economic Growth”, Kyklos, 20(2), pp. 470-86.
  • ERTUĞRUL, Hasan Murat ve SOYTAŞ, Uğur; (2013), “Sanayi Üretim Endeksinin Durağanlık Özellikleri”, İktisat, İşletme ve Finans, 328(28), ss. 51-66.
  • ESEN, Ömer ve BAYRAK Metin; (2015), “Kamu Harcamaları ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Geçiş Sürecindeki Türk Cumhuriyetleri Üzerine Bir Uygulama”, Bilig, 73, ss. 231-248.
  • FEDER, Gershon; (1982), “On Exports and Economic Growth”, Journal of Development Economics, 12, pp. 59–73.
  • FINDLAY, Ronald; (1984), “Growth and Development in Trade Models”, Handbook of International Economics, 1 (4), pp. 185-236.
  • FÖLSTER, Stefan ve HENREKSON Magnus; (2001), “Growth Effects of Government Expenditure and Taxation in Rich Countries”, European Economic Review, 45, pp. 1501-1520.
  • GENÇ, Murat Can, DEĞER, Mustafa Kemal ve BERBER, Metin; (2010), “Beşeri Sermaye, İhracat ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Türkiye Ekonomisi Üzerine Nedensellik Analizi”, The Journal of Knowledge Economy & Knowledge Management, 5, ss. 29-41.
  • GRANGER, Clive W. J.; (1969), “Investigating Causal Relations By Econometric Models and Cross Spectral Methods”, Econometrica, 37, ss. 424‐38.
  • GREGARIOU, Andros ve GHOSH Sugata; (2009), “The Impact of Government Expenditure On Growth: Empirical Evidence From A Heterogeneous Panel”, Bulletin of Economic Research, 61 (1), ss. 95-102.
  • GREENAWAY, David ve SAPSFORD, David; (1994), “Exports, Growth, and Liberalization: An Evaluation”, Journal of Policy Modelling, 16, pp. 165-86.
  • GROSSMAN, Gene ve HELPMAN Elhanan; (1990), “Trade, Innovation and Growth”, American Economic Review, 80 (2), pp. 86-91.
  • GUJARATI, Damodar N.; (2003), Basic Econometrics, (4th Edition) McGraw‐Hill.
  • GUSEH, James S.; (1997), “Government Size and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: A Political-Economy Framework”, Journal of Macroeconomics, 19 (1), pp. 175-192.
  • GÜL, Ekrem ve YAVUZ, Hakan; (2011), “Türkiye’de Kamu Harcamaları İle Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisi: 1963-2008 Dönemi”, Maliye Dergisi, 160, ss. 72-85.
  • GÜMÜŞ, Münire; (2017), “BRIC Ülkelerinde İhracat ve Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki: Panel Veri Analizi”, International Academic Journal, 1(1), 64-75.
  • HELLER, Peter ve PORTER, Richard C.; (1978), “Exports And Growth: An Empirical Re-Investigation”, Journal of Development Economics, 5(2), 191-93.
  • HELPMAN, Elhanan ve KRUGMAN, Paul; (1985), Market Structure and Foreign Trade: Increasing Returns, Imperfect Competition and The International Economy, 1st ed, London: MIT Press.
  • HOLMES, James ve HUTTON, Patricia; (1990), “On The Causal Relatioship Between Government Expenditures and National Income”. The Review of Economics And Statistics, 72, pp. 87-95.
  • HUSSAIN, Majeed A. ve SAAED, Afaf A.; (2014), “Relationship Between Exports, Imports and Economic Growth in Saudi Arabia: 1990-2011. Evidence From Co-Integration and Granger Causality Analysis”, Journal of Emerging Trends in Economics and Management Sciences, 5(3), pp. 364-370.
  • HUSEYNI, İbrahim ve ÇAKMAK, Erol; (2016), “Neo-Klasik Büyüme Modeli Kapsamında İhracat ve Ekonomik Büyüme Analizi Türkiye Örneği: 1980-2010”, Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 30(4).
  • INIGUEZ-MONTIEL, Alberto J.; (2009), “Government Expenditure and National Income in Mexico: Keynes Versus Wagner”, Applied Economics Letters, 17, pp. 887-893.
  • IMF (2018, Mart 18), International Monetary Fund, Erişim adresi https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/CHN
  • IŞIK, Nihat ve ALAGÖZ, Mehmet; (2005), “Kamu Harcamaları ve Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki”, Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 24, ss. 63-75.
  • IYARE, Sunday Osaretin ve LORDE, Troy; (2004), “Co-integration, Causality and Wagner’s Law: Tests For Selected Caribbean Countries”, Applied Economics Letters, 11, pp. 815-825.
  • İZGİ, Berna B. ve YILMAZ, Hüseyin; (2018), “Türkiye’de Ekonomik Büyüme, İhracat ve İthalat: Nedensellik İlişkisi (1992-2016)”, İktisadi Yenilik Dergisi, 5 (2), ss. 54-74.
  • KARAGÖL, Erdal ve SEREL, Alpaslan; (2005), “Türkiye’de İhracat ve GSMH Arasındaki İlişkinin Kointegrasyon Yöntemiyle İncelenmesi”, İ.Ü. İktisat Fakültesi Sosyal Siyaset Konferansları Dergisi, 50, ss. 1030-1040.
  • KARAGÖZ, Murat ve ŞEN, Ali; (2005), “Exports and Economic Growth of Turkey: Co-integration and Error-Correction Analysis”, Elektronik Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 4(13), ss. 1-15.
  • KİRAZ, Halil ve GÜMÜŞ, Erdal; (2017), “Kamu Harcamalarının Ekonomi Büyümeye Etkisi: OECD Ülkeleri Üzerine Bir Araştırma”, Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar, 54 (631), ss. 17-28.
  • KORKMAZ, Suna; (2014), “Türkiye Ekonomisinde İhracat ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisi”, Business and Economics Research Journal, 5 (4), ss. 119-128.
  • KÖSEKAHYAOĞLU, Levent ve ŞENTÜRK, Canan; (2006), “İhracata Dayalı Büyüme Hipotezinin Testi: Türkiye ve Yeni Gelişen Ekonomiler Üzerine Karşılaştırmalı Bir İnceleme”, Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 2(4), ss. 23-45
  • KRAVIS, Irving B.; (1970), “Trade as a Handmaiden of Growth: Similarities Between The Nineteenth and Twentieth Centuries”, Economic Journal, 80(320), pp. 850-72.
  • KRUEGER, Anne O.; (1978), “Foreign Trade Regimes and Economic Development: Liberalization Attempts and Consequences”, National Bureau of Economic Research, pp. 273-74.
  • KUGLER, Peter; (1991), “Growth, Exports and Cointegration: An Empirical Investigation”. Weltwirtschaftliches Archive, 127 (2), pp. 73-81.
  • KUMARI, Deepika ve MALHOTRA, Neena; (2014), “Export-Led Growth in India: Cointegration and Causality Analysis”, Journal of Economics and Development Studies, 2 (2), ss. 297-310.
  • KUNST, Robert ve MARIN, Dalia; (1989), “On Exports and Productivity: A Causal Analysis”, Review of Economics and Statistics, 71, pp. 699-703.
  • KURT, Serdar ve TERZİ, Harun; (2007), “İmalat Sanayi Dış Ticareti Verimlilik ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi”, Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 21(1), ss. 25-46.
  • KWIATKOWSKI, Denis, PHILLIPS, Peter C.B, SCHMIDT, Peter ve SHIN, Yongcheol; (1992), “ Testing The Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against The Alternative of A Unit Root: How Sure Are We That The Economic Time Series Have A Unit Root?”, Journal of Econometrics, 54, pp. 159-178.
  • LAMARTINA, Serena ve ZAGHINI, Andrea; (2011), “Increasing Public Expenditure: Wagner's Law in OECD Countries”, German Economic Review, 12(2), pp. 149-164.
  • LOIZIDES, John ve VAMVOUKAS, George; (2005), “Government Expenditure and Economic Growth: Evidence From Trivariate Causality Testing”, Journal of Applied Economics, 8, pp. 125-152.
  • MANN, Arthur J.; (1980), “Wagner’s Law: An Econometric Test For Mexico, 1925-1976”, National Tax Journal, 33, pp. 189-201.
  • MARIN, Dalia; (1992), “Is The Export-Led Growth Valid For Developed Countries?”, Review of Economics and Statistics, 74, pp. 678–688.
  • MENYAH, Kojo ve WOLDE-RUFAEL, Yemane; (2013), “Government Expenditure and Economic Growth: The Ethiopian Experience, 1950-2007”, The Journal of Developing Areas, pp. 263-280.
  • MICHAELY, Michael; (1977), “Exports and Growth: An Empirical Investigation”, Journal of Development Economics, 4 (1), pp. 49-53.
  • NARAYAN, Paresh Kumar, NIELSEN Ingrid ve SMYTH, Russell; (2008), “Panel Data, Cointegration, Causality and Wagner’s Law: Empirical Evidence From Chinese Provinces”, China Economic Review, 19 (2), pp. 297-307.
  • NG, Serena ve PERRON Pierre; (2001), “Lag Length Selection and The Construction of Unit Root Tests With Good Size And Power”, Econometrica, 69(6), pp. 1519-1554.
  • NIEH, Chien-Chung ve YAU, Hwey-Yun; (2004), “Time Series Analysis For The Interest Rates Relationships Among China, Hong Kong, And Taiwan Money Markets”, Journal of Asian Economics, 15, pp. 171-188.
  • OGUNDIPE Adeyemi ve OLUWATOBI, Stephen; (2013), “Government Spending and Economic Growth in Nigeria: Evidence From Disaggregated Analysis”, Journal of Business Management and Applied Economics, 2 (4), pp. 1-10.
  • OXLEY, Les; (1993), “Cointegration Causality and Export-Led Growth in Portugal: 1865-1985”, Economics Letters, 43, pp. 163-166.
  • OXLEY, Les; (1994), “Cointegration, Causalty and Wagner’s Law”, Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 41, pp. 286-298.
  • ÖZCAN, Burcu ve ÖZÇELEBİ, Oğuzhan; (2013), “İhracata Dayalı Büyüme Hipotezi Türkiye İçin Geçerli Mi?”, Yönetim ve Ekonomi, 20(1), ss. 1-14.
  • ÖZER, Mustafa ve ERDOĞAN, Levent; (2006), “Türkiye'de İhracat, İthalat Ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkilerin Zaman Serisi Analizi”, Ekonomik Yaklaşım, 17(60-61), ss. 93-110.
  • PAUL, Biru Paksha; (2011), “Revisiting Export-Led Growth For Bangladesh: A Synthesis of Cointegration and Innovation Accounting”, International Journal of Economics and Finance, 3(6), pp. 3-15.
  • PHILLIPS, Peter C. B. ve PERRON, Pierre; (1988), “Testing For A Unit Root in Time Series Regression”, Biometrika,75(2), pp. 335–346.
  • RAM, Rati; (1986), “Goverment Size and Economic Growth”, America Economic Rewiew, 76 (1), pp. 191-203.
  • RAMOS, Francisco Ribeiro; (2000), “Exports, Imports, and Economic Growth in Portugal: Evidence From Causality and Cointegration Analysis”, Economic Modelling, pp. 613-623.
  • RAY, Sarbapriya; (2011), “A Causality Analysis on The Empirical Nexus Between Export and Economic Growth: Evidence From India”, International Affairs and Global Strategy, 1, pp. 24-38.
  • RAZA, Mohsin ve YING, Zhang Wi; (2017), “The Causal Relationship Between Export and Economic Growth of Pakistan”, International Journal of Economics, Commerce and Management, 5 (2), pp. 210-230.
  • RIVERA-BATIZ, Luis ve ROMER, Paul; (1991), “Economic Integration and Endogenous Growth”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106, pp. 531-55.
  • SAATÇİOĞLU, Cem ve KARACA, Orhan; (2004), “Türkiye'de İhracat ile Büyüme Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisi: 1980 Dönüşümünün Etkisi”, İstanbul Üniversitesi İşletme Fakültesi İşletme İktisadı Enstitüsü Dergisi: Yönetim, 49.
  • SALEEM, Adeel ve SIAL, Maqbool H.; (2015), “Exports-Growth Nexus in Pakistan Cointegration and Causality Analysis”, Pakistan Economic and Social Review, 53 (1), pp. 17-46.
  • SANDALCILAR, Ali Rıza; (2012), “BRIC Ülkelerinde Ekonomik Büyüme ve İhracat Arasındaki İlişki: Panel Eşbütünleşme Ve Panel Nedensellik”, Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi, İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 17(1), ss. 161-179.
  • SARAÇ, Taha Bahadır; (2013), “İhracat ve İthalatın Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği”, Ege Akademik Bakış, 13(2), ss. 181-194.
  • SCHALTEGGER, Christoph ve TORGLER, Benno; (2006), “Growth Effects of Public Expenditure on The State and Local Level: Evidence From A Sample of Rich Governments”, Applied Economics, 38 (10), pp. 1181-1192.
  • SEABRA, Fernando ve GALIMBERTI, Jaqueson Kingeski; (2012), “Conditioned Export-Led Growth Hypothesis: A Panel Threshold Regressions Approach”, Revista de Economia, 38(2), pp. 7-23.
  • SERTELIS, Apostolos; (1992), “Export Growth and Canadian Economic Development”, Journal of Development Economics, 38, pp. 133-145.
  • SHUJAAT, Abbas; (2012), “Causality Between Exports and Economic Growth: Investigating Suitable Trade Policy For Pakistan”, Eurasian Journal of Business and Economics, 5(10), pp. 91-98.
  • SINGH, Balvir ve SAHNI, Balbir S.; (1984), “Causality Between Public Expenditure and National Income”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 66 (4), pp. 630-644.
  • SUBAŞI Meriç E.; (2017), “Çin’de Ekonomik Büyüme, Yoksulluk ve Gelir Eşitsizliği: Dünya Ekonomisinde Konumu”, Bilgi Ekonomisi ve Yönetimi Dergisi, 12(1), ss. 13-37.
  • ŞAHİN, Dilek ve DURMUŞ, Savaş; (2018), “Analysis of Relationship Between Foreign Trade and Economic Growth in Turkey”, The Journal of International Social Research, 11(60), http://dx.doi.org/10.17719/jisr.2018.2860.
  • ŞİT, Mustafa ve KARADAĞ, Haydar; (2018). “Türkiye Ekonomisinde Kamu Harcamaları-Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Toda-Yamamoto Nedensellik Testi”, Uluslararası Ticaret ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi, 2 (1), ss. 33-41.
  • TANG, T.C. (2006), “Export-Led Growth in Hong Kong: Empirical Evidence From The Components of Exports”, International Journal of Business and Society, 7(1), pp. 30-52.
  • TEMİZ, Dilek, ve GÖKMEN, Aytaç; (2010), “An Analysis of The Export and Economic Growth in Turkey Over The Period of 1950-2009”, International Journal of Economic and Administrative Studies, 2(5), 124-142.
  • TERZİ, Harun; (1999), “Kalkınma Sürecinde Kamu Harcamaları: Türkiye Üzerine Bir İnceleme”, İktisat, İşletme ve Finans Dergisi, 60, ss. 10-28.
  • TERZİ, Harun ve YURTKURAN, Süleyman; (2016), “Türkiye’de Eğitim ve İktisadi Büyüme İlişkisi: Sims ve Toda-Yamamoto Nedensellik Analizleri”, Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İİİBF Dergisi, 11(2), ss. 7- 24.
  • TODA, Hiro Y. ve YAMAMOTO Taku; (1995), “Statistical Inferences in Vector Autoregressions with Possibly Integrated Processes”, Journal of Econometrics, 66, pp. 225‐250.
  • TUNCER, İsmail; (2002), “Türkiye’de İhracat, İthalat ve Büyüme: Toda-Yamamoto Yöntemiyle Granger Nedensellik Analizleri (1980-2000)”, Çukurova Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 9(9).
  • TÜLÜMCE Sevinç Y. ve ZEREN Fatma; (2017), “Türkiye’de Kamu Harcamaları ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin Asimetrik Nedensellik Testi İle Analizi”, Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi, 13, (2), ss. 299-310.
  • TYLER, William G.; (1981), “Growth and Export Expansion in Developing Countries: Some Empirical Evidence”, Journal of Development Economics, 9(2), pp. 121-130.
  • ULUCAK, Recep ve ULUCAK, Zübeyde Ş.; (2014), “Kamu Harcamaları ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki Nedensellik: Türkiye Örneği”, Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi, 10 (23), ss. 81-97.
  • UYSAL, Doğan ve MUCUK, Mehmet; (2009), “Türkiye Ekonomisinde Kamu Harcamaları ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi”, Finans Politik ve Ekonomik Yorumlar, 46 (527).
  • UZAY, Nısfet; (2000), “Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde İhracat Artışı- İktisadi Büyüme İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği”, Erciyes Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 9, ss. 37-55.
  • WASIM, Ahmad ve NAIN, Zulquar; (2010), “Export-Led Growth Hypothesis in India: Some Further Evidences”, Monetary Economics IUP Magazine, 8, pp. 69-82.
  • WB (2018, 18 Mart), World Bank, Erişim adresi https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/china/overview
  • WB (2019, 22 Mart), World Bank, Erişim adresi https://data.worldbank.org/country/china
  • YAPRAKLI, Sevda; (2007), “İhracat İle Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki Nedensellik: Türkiye Üzerine Ekonometrik Bir Analiz”, ODTÜ Gelişme Dergisi, 34, ss. 97- 112.
  • YILDIZ, Fazlı ve SARISOY, Sinan; (2012), “OECD Ülkelerinde Kamu Harcamaları ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi Üzerine Ampirik Bir Çalışma”, Marmara Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 33(2), ss. 517-540.
  • YÜKSEL, Cihan ve SONGUR, Mehmet; (2011), “Kamu Harcamalarının Bileşenleri İle Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki: Ampirik Bir Analiz (1980-2010)”, Maliye Dergisi, 161, ss. 365-380.
  • ZANG, Wenyu ve BAIMBRIDGE, Mark; (2012), “Exports, Imports and Economic Growth in South Korea and Japon: A Tale of Economies”, Applied Economics, 44, pp. 361-372.
  • ZHENG, Yan, LI, Jiabai, WANG, Xiao-Li ve LI Changqing; (2010), “An Empirical Analysis of The Validity of Wagner’s Law in China A Case Study Based On Gibbs Sampler”, International Journal of Business and Management, 5(6), pp. 161-168.

Çin’in ekonomik büyümesinde ivme kaybı: İhracat-kamu harcamaları etkisi, Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testi

Year 2019, Issue: 54, 461 - 486, 31.12.2019

Dilek Temiz Dinç

https://doi.org/10.18070/erciyesiibd.546330

Abstract

Çin, uyguladığı başarılı
reformlar ve dışa açılma politikası ile önemli bir ekonomik büyüme performansı
yakalayarak, gelişmiş ekonomilerle arasını hızla kapatan bir ekonomi görünümüne
sahipti. Ancak, 2010 yılından itibaren büyüme hızı yavaşlamaya başladı. Büyüme
hızındaki bu ivme kaybının birçok nedeninin olmasıyla birlikte, Çin’in ihracat
artış hızının ve Çin’deki kamu harcamalarının azalması başlıca nedenler
arasında sayılabilir. Bu çalışmada, Çin’in ihracatı, kamu harcamaları ve
ekonomik büyümesi arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi, Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik
testi ile araştırılmıştır. Çalışmada, 1960-2017 dönemini kapsayan yıllık
veriler kullanılmıştır. Ampirik analizler sonucunda, Çin’in ekonomik büyümesi
ile kamu harcamaları arasında çift yönlü, ihracatı ile ekonomik büyümesi
arasında ise ihracatından ekonomik büyümesine doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik
ilişkisi saptanmıştır.  Bu bulgular göre,
Çin’in ekonomik büyümesi ile kamu harcamaları ilişkisi, hem Wagner’in hem de
Keynes’in hipotezlerini desteklemekte, ekonomik büyümesi ile ihracatı ilişkisi
ise ihracata dayalı büyüme hipotezini desteklemektedir. Çalışmada ayrıca
varyans ayrıştırması analizi ile Çin’in ekonomik büyümesi üzerinde ihracatının
etkisinin kamu harcamalarının etkisinden daha fazla olduğu sonucuna
ulaşılmıştır. 

Keywords

Ekonomik Büyüme İhracat Kamu Harcamaları Toda-Yamamoto Nedensellik Testi Varyans Ayrıştırması

References

  • ABIZADEH, Sohrab ve YOUSEFI, Mahmood; (1998), “An Empirical Analysis Of South Korea’s Economic Development And Public Expenditures Growth”, Journal of Socio Economics, 27(6), pp. 687-700.
  • AFXENTIOUS, Panayiotis. C. ve SERLETIS, Apostolos; (1991), “Exports and GNP Causality in The Industrial Countries: 1950-1985”, Kyklos, 44 (2), pp. 167-179.
  • AĞAYEV, Seymur; (2011), “İhracat ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: 12 Geçiş Ekonomisi Örneğinde Panel Eşbütünleşme ve Panel Nedensellik Analizleri”, Ege Akademik Bakış, 11(2), ss. 241-254.
  • AKBULUT, Seval; (2009), “1980 Sonrası Türkiye’de İhracata Dayalı Büyümenin Sektörler İtibariyle Ekonometrik Analizi”. Yayımlanmamış Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Karadeniz Teknik Üniversitesi, Trabzon.
  • AKSOY, Şerafettin; (1991), Kamu Maliyesi, İstanbul: Filiz Kitabevi.
  • AKTAŞ, Cengiz; (2009), “Türkiye'nin İhracat, İthalat ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki Nedensellik Analizi”, Kocaeli Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 18(2), ss. 35-47.
  • ALAGÖZ, Mehmet ve IŞIK, Nihat; (2005), “Kamu Harcamaları ve Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki”, Erciyes Üniversitesi, İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, 24, ss. 63-75.
  • ALEXIOU, Constantinos; (2009), “Government Spending and Economic Growth: Econometric Evidence From The South Eastern Europe (SEE)”, Journal of Economic and Social Research, 11(1), pp. 1-16.
  • ALTINTAŞ, Halil ve ÇETİNTAŞ, Hakan; (2010), “Türkiye’de Ekonomik Büyüme, Beşeri Sermaye ve İhracat Arasındaki İlişkilerin Ekonometrik Analizi: 1970-2007”, Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 36, ss. 33-56.
  • ARAN, Bozkurt; (2018), “ABD, Çin, Ticaret Savaşları ve Türkiye”, TEPAV, Türkiye Ekonomi Politikaları Araştırma Vakfı, N201813. https://www.tepav.org.tr/upload/files/1523348259-7.ABD__Cin__Ticaret_Savaslari_ve_Turkiye.pdf.
  • ARISOY, İbrahim; (2005a), “ Türkiye’de Kamu Harcamaları ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi (1950-2003)”, Türkiye Ekonomi Kurumu Tartışma Metni.
  • ARISOY, İbrahim; (2005b), “Wagner ve Keynes Hipotezleri Çerçevesinde Türkiye’de Kamu Harcamaları ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi”, Ç.Ü. Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 14 (2), ss. 63-80.
  • AYTAÇ, Ayhan; (2017), “Ekonomik Büyüme-İhracat İlişkisi: 2001-2016”, Social Sciences Research Journal, 6(4), ss. 214-222.
  • BAĞDIGEN, Muhlis ve ÇETİNTAŞ, Hakan; (2003), “Causality Between Public Expenditure and Economic Growth: The Turkish Case”, MPRA-Munich Personel RePEc Archive, Paper No. 8576.
  • BALASSA, Bela; (1978), “Exports and Economic Growth: Further Evidence”, Journal of Development Economics, 5(2), pp. 181-89.
  • BAHMANI-OSKOOEE Mohsen ve ALSE, Janardhanan; (1993), “Export Growth and Economic Growth: An Application of Cointegration and Error-Correction Modelling”, The Journal of Developing Areas, 27, pp. 535-542.
  • BAHMANI-OSKOOEE Mohsen ve OYOLOLA, Mmaharouf; (2007), “Export Growth and Output Growth: An Application of Bounds Testing Approach”, Journal of Economics and Finance, 1(31), pp. 1-11.
  • BARRO, Robert J.; (1991), “Economics Growth in A Cross-Section of Countries”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, May, pp. 407-443.
  • BAŞAR, Selim, AKSU, Hayati, TEMURLENK, M. Sinan ve POLAT, Özgür; (2009), “Türkiye’de Kamu Harcamaları ve Büyüme İlişkisi: Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı”, Atatürk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 13(1), ss. 301-314.
  • BERBEROĞLU, Murat, KARAKAYA, Aykut ve ER, Bunyamin; (2017), “Çin’den Yapılan İthalatın Türkiye’deki Firmaların Performansına Etkisi: İSO 1000 Araştırması”, İstanbul Üniversitesi İşletme Fakültesi İşletme Fakültesi İşletme İktisadı Enstitüsü Yönetim Dergisi, 82, ss. 1-41.
  • BOSE, Niloy, HAQUE, M. Emranul ve OSBORN, R. Denise; (2003), “Public Expenditure and Economic Growth: A Disaggregated Analysis For Developing Countries”, The Manchester School, 75(5), pp. 533-556.
  • BÜYÜKAKIN, Figen, BOZKURT, Hilal ve CENGİZ, Vedat; (2015), “Türkiye’de Parasal Aktarımın Faiz Kanalının Granger Nedensellik ve Toda-Yamamota Yöntemleri İle Analizi”, Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 33, ss. 101-118.
  • CHOW, Peter. C. Y.; (1987), “Causality Between Export Growth and Industrial Development: Empirical Evidence From The NICs”, Journal of Development Economics, 26(1), pp. 55-63.
  • CHRISTIE, Tamoya; (2012), “The Effect of Government Spending on Economic Growth: Testing The Non-Linear Hypothesis”, Bulletin of Economic Research, 66(2), pp. 1-22.
  • COLOMBATTO, Enrico; (1990). “An Analysis of Exports and Growth”. Kyklos, 43 (4), pp. 579-97.
  • COTSOMITIS, A. John, HARNHIRUN, Somchai ve KWAN C. C. Andy; (1996), “Co-Integration Analysis and The Long-Run Validity of Wagner's Hypothesis: Evidence From The People's Republic Of China”, Journal of Economic Development, 21(2), pp. 1-10.
  • ÇALIŞKAN, Şadan ve KARABACAK, Mustafa; (2017), “Türkiye Ekonomisinde Eğitim Harcamaları ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Bootstrap Toda-Yamamoto Nedensellik Testi Yaklaşımı”, KOSBED, 33, ss. 45 – 56.
  • DARRAT, Ali F.; (1987), “Are Exports Engine of Growth? Another Look At The Evidence”, Applied Economics, 19, pp. 277-83.
  • DENİZ, Yıldırım; (2015), “Çin’in ekonomik dönüşümü ve Üçüncü Dünya” Erişim adresi http://www.academia.edu/19629359/ÇİN_İN_EKONOMİK_DÖNÜŞÜMÜ_VE_Ü ÇÜNCÜ_DÜNYA
  • DICKEY, David. A. ve FULLER, Wayne A.; (1981), “Likelihood Ratio Statistics For Autoregressive Time Series With A Unit Root”, Econometrica, 49, pp. 1057-1072.
  • EĞİLMEZ, Mahfi; (2019), “Küresel Sistemde Çin Korkusu”, Kendime Yazılar, Ocak, Erişim adresi http://www.mahfiegilmez.com/2019/01/kuresel-sistemde-cin-korkusu.html.
  • ELLIOT, Graham, ROTHENBERG, Thomas J. ve STOCK, James H.; (1996), “Efficient Tests For An Autoregressive Unit Root”, Econometrica, 64, pp. 813-836.
  • EMERY, Robert F.; (1967), “The Relation of Exports And Economic Growth”, Kyklos, 20(2), pp. 470-86.
  • ERTUĞRUL, Hasan Murat ve SOYTAŞ, Uğur; (2013), “Sanayi Üretim Endeksinin Durağanlık Özellikleri”, İktisat, İşletme ve Finans, 328(28), ss. 51-66.
  • ESEN, Ömer ve BAYRAK Metin; (2015), “Kamu Harcamaları ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Geçiş Sürecindeki Türk Cumhuriyetleri Üzerine Bir Uygulama”, Bilig, 73, ss. 231-248.
  • FEDER, Gershon; (1982), “On Exports and Economic Growth”, Journal of Development Economics, 12, pp. 59–73.
  • FINDLAY, Ronald; (1984), “Growth and Development in Trade Models”, Handbook of International Economics, 1 (4), pp. 185-236.
  • FÖLSTER, Stefan ve HENREKSON Magnus; (2001), “Growth Effects of Government Expenditure and Taxation in Rich Countries”, European Economic Review, 45, pp. 1501-1520.
  • GENÇ, Murat Can, DEĞER, Mustafa Kemal ve BERBER, Metin; (2010), “Beşeri Sermaye, İhracat ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Türkiye Ekonomisi Üzerine Nedensellik Analizi”, The Journal of Knowledge Economy & Knowledge Management, 5, ss. 29-41.
  • GRANGER, Clive W. J.; (1969), “Investigating Causal Relations By Econometric Models and Cross Spectral Methods”, Econometrica, 37, ss. 424‐38.
  • GREGARIOU, Andros ve GHOSH Sugata; (2009), “The Impact of Government Expenditure On Growth: Empirical Evidence From A Heterogeneous Panel”, Bulletin of Economic Research, 61 (1), ss. 95-102.
  • GREENAWAY, David ve SAPSFORD, David; (1994), “Exports, Growth, and Liberalization: An Evaluation”, Journal of Policy Modelling, 16, pp. 165-86.
  • GROSSMAN, Gene ve HELPMAN Elhanan; (1990), “Trade, Innovation and Growth”, American Economic Review, 80 (2), pp. 86-91.
  • GUJARATI, Damodar N.; (2003), Basic Econometrics, (4th Edition) McGraw‐Hill.
  • GUSEH, James S.; (1997), “Government Size and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: A Political-Economy Framework”, Journal of Macroeconomics, 19 (1), pp. 175-192.
  • GÜL, Ekrem ve YAVUZ, Hakan; (2011), “Türkiye’de Kamu Harcamaları İle Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisi: 1963-2008 Dönemi”, Maliye Dergisi, 160, ss. 72-85.
  • GÜMÜŞ, Münire; (2017), “BRIC Ülkelerinde İhracat ve Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki: Panel Veri Analizi”, International Academic Journal, 1(1), 64-75.
  • HELLER, Peter ve PORTER, Richard C.; (1978), “Exports And Growth: An Empirical Re-Investigation”, Journal of Development Economics, 5(2), 191-93.
  • HELPMAN, Elhanan ve KRUGMAN, Paul; (1985), Market Structure and Foreign Trade: Increasing Returns, Imperfect Competition and The International Economy, 1st ed, London: MIT Press.
  • HOLMES, James ve HUTTON, Patricia; (1990), “On The Causal Relatioship Between Government Expenditures and National Income”. The Review of Economics And Statistics, 72, pp. 87-95.
  • HUSSAIN, Majeed A. ve SAAED, Afaf A.; (2014), “Relationship Between Exports, Imports and Economic Growth in Saudi Arabia: 1990-2011. Evidence From Co-Integration and Granger Causality Analysis”, Journal of Emerging Trends in Economics and Management Sciences, 5(3), pp. 364-370.
  • HUSEYNI, İbrahim ve ÇAKMAK, Erol; (2016), “Neo-Klasik Büyüme Modeli Kapsamında İhracat ve Ekonomik Büyüme Analizi Türkiye Örneği: 1980-2010”, Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 30(4).
  • INIGUEZ-MONTIEL, Alberto J.; (2009), “Government Expenditure and National Income in Mexico: Keynes Versus Wagner”, Applied Economics Letters, 17, pp. 887-893.
  • IMF (2018, Mart 18), International Monetary Fund, Erişim adresi https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/CHN
  • IŞIK, Nihat ve ALAGÖZ, Mehmet; (2005), “Kamu Harcamaları ve Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki”, Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 24, ss. 63-75.
  • IYARE, Sunday Osaretin ve LORDE, Troy; (2004), “Co-integration, Causality and Wagner’s Law: Tests For Selected Caribbean Countries”, Applied Economics Letters, 11, pp. 815-825.
  • İZGİ, Berna B. ve YILMAZ, Hüseyin; (2018), “Türkiye’de Ekonomik Büyüme, İhracat ve İthalat: Nedensellik İlişkisi (1992-2016)”, İktisadi Yenilik Dergisi, 5 (2), ss. 54-74.
  • KARAGÖL, Erdal ve SEREL, Alpaslan; (2005), “Türkiye’de İhracat ve GSMH Arasındaki İlişkinin Kointegrasyon Yöntemiyle İncelenmesi”, İ.Ü. İktisat Fakültesi Sosyal Siyaset Konferansları Dergisi, 50, ss. 1030-1040.
  • KARAGÖZ, Murat ve ŞEN, Ali; (2005), “Exports and Economic Growth of Turkey: Co-integration and Error-Correction Analysis”, Elektronik Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 4(13), ss. 1-15.
  • KİRAZ, Halil ve GÜMÜŞ, Erdal; (2017), “Kamu Harcamalarının Ekonomi Büyümeye Etkisi: OECD Ülkeleri Üzerine Bir Araştırma”, Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar, 54 (631), ss. 17-28.
  • KORKMAZ, Suna; (2014), “Türkiye Ekonomisinde İhracat ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisi”, Business and Economics Research Journal, 5 (4), ss. 119-128.
  • KÖSEKAHYAOĞLU, Levent ve ŞENTÜRK, Canan; (2006), “İhracata Dayalı Büyüme Hipotezinin Testi: Türkiye ve Yeni Gelişen Ekonomiler Üzerine Karşılaştırmalı Bir İnceleme”, Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 2(4), ss. 23-45
  • KRAVIS, Irving B.; (1970), “Trade as a Handmaiden of Growth: Similarities Between The Nineteenth and Twentieth Centuries”, Economic Journal, 80(320), pp. 850-72.
  • KRUEGER, Anne O.; (1978), “Foreign Trade Regimes and Economic Development: Liberalization Attempts and Consequences”, National Bureau of Economic Research, pp. 273-74.
  • KUGLER, Peter; (1991), “Growth, Exports and Cointegration: An Empirical Investigation”. Weltwirtschaftliches Archive, 127 (2), pp. 73-81.
  • KUMARI, Deepika ve MALHOTRA, Neena; (2014), “Export-Led Growth in India: Cointegration and Causality Analysis”, Journal of Economics and Development Studies, 2 (2), ss. 297-310.
  • KUNST, Robert ve MARIN, Dalia; (1989), “On Exports and Productivity: A Causal Analysis”, Review of Economics and Statistics, 71, pp. 699-703.
  • KURT, Serdar ve TERZİ, Harun; (2007), “İmalat Sanayi Dış Ticareti Verimlilik ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi”, Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 21(1), ss. 25-46.
  • KWIATKOWSKI, Denis, PHILLIPS, Peter C.B, SCHMIDT, Peter ve SHIN, Yongcheol; (1992), “ Testing The Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against The Alternative of A Unit Root: How Sure Are We That The Economic Time Series Have A Unit Root?”, Journal of Econometrics, 54, pp. 159-178.
  • LAMARTINA, Serena ve ZAGHINI, Andrea; (2011), “Increasing Public Expenditure: Wagner's Law in OECD Countries”, German Economic Review, 12(2), pp. 149-164.
  • LOIZIDES, John ve VAMVOUKAS, George; (2005), “Government Expenditure and Economic Growth: Evidence From Trivariate Causality Testing”, Journal of Applied Economics, 8, pp. 125-152.
  • MANN, Arthur J.; (1980), “Wagner’s Law: An Econometric Test For Mexico, 1925-1976”, National Tax Journal, 33, pp. 189-201.
  • MARIN, Dalia; (1992), “Is The Export-Led Growth Valid For Developed Countries?”, Review of Economics and Statistics, 74, pp. 678–688.
  • MENYAH, Kojo ve WOLDE-RUFAEL, Yemane; (2013), “Government Expenditure and Economic Growth: The Ethiopian Experience, 1950-2007”, The Journal of Developing Areas, pp. 263-280.
  • MICHAELY, Michael; (1977), “Exports and Growth: An Empirical Investigation”, Journal of Development Economics, 4 (1), pp. 49-53.
  • NARAYAN, Paresh Kumar, NIELSEN Ingrid ve SMYTH, Russell; (2008), “Panel Data, Cointegration, Causality and Wagner’s Law: Empirical Evidence From Chinese Provinces”, China Economic Review, 19 (2), pp. 297-307.
  • NG, Serena ve PERRON Pierre; (2001), “Lag Length Selection and The Construction of Unit Root Tests With Good Size And Power”, Econometrica, 69(6), pp. 1519-1554.
  • NIEH, Chien-Chung ve YAU, Hwey-Yun; (2004), “Time Series Analysis For The Interest Rates Relationships Among China, Hong Kong, And Taiwan Money Markets”, Journal of Asian Economics, 15, pp. 171-188.
  • OGUNDIPE Adeyemi ve OLUWATOBI, Stephen; (2013), “Government Spending and Economic Growth in Nigeria: Evidence From Disaggregated Analysis”, Journal of Business Management and Applied Economics, 2 (4), pp. 1-10.
  • OXLEY, Les; (1993), “Cointegration Causality and Export-Led Growth in Portugal: 1865-1985”, Economics Letters, 43, pp. 163-166.
  • OXLEY, Les; (1994), “Cointegration, Causalty and Wagner’s Law”, Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 41, pp. 286-298.
  • ÖZCAN, Burcu ve ÖZÇELEBİ, Oğuzhan; (2013), “İhracata Dayalı Büyüme Hipotezi Türkiye İçin Geçerli Mi?”, Yönetim ve Ekonomi, 20(1), ss. 1-14.
  • ÖZER, Mustafa ve ERDOĞAN, Levent; (2006), “Türkiye'de İhracat, İthalat Ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkilerin Zaman Serisi Analizi”, Ekonomik Yaklaşım, 17(60-61), ss. 93-110.
  • PAUL, Biru Paksha; (2011), “Revisiting Export-Led Growth For Bangladesh: A Synthesis of Cointegration and Innovation Accounting”, International Journal of Economics and Finance, 3(6), pp. 3-15.
  • PHILLIPS, Peter C. B. ve PERRON, Pierre; (1988), “Testing For A Unit Root in Time Series Regression”, Biometrika,75(2), pp. 335–346.
  • RAM, Rati; (1986), “Goverment Size and Economic Growth”, America Economic Rewiew, 76 (1), pp. 191-203.
  • RAMOS, Francisco Ribeiro; (2000), “Exports, Imports, and Economic Growth in Portugal: Evidence From Causality and Cointegration Analysis”, Economic Modelling, pp. 613-623.
  • RAY, Sarbapriya; (2011), “A Causality Analysis on The Empirical Nexus Between Export and Economic Growth: Evidence From India”, International Affairs and Global Strategy, 1, pp. 24-38.
  • RAZA, Mohsin ve YING, Zhang Wi; (2017), “The Causal Relationship Between Export and Economic Growth of Pakistan”, International Journal of Economics, Commerce and Management, 5 (2), pp. 210-230.
  • RIVERA-BATIZ, Luis ve ROMER, Paul; (1991), “Economic Integration and Endogenous Growth”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106, pp. 531-55.
  • SAATÇİOĞLU, Cem ve KARACA, Orhan; (2004), “Türkiye'de İhracat ile Büyüme Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisi: 1980 Dönüşümünün Etkisi”, İstanbul Üniversitesi İşletme Fakültesi İşletme İktisadı Enstitüsü Dergisi: Yönetim, 49.
  • SALEEM, Adeel ve SIAL, Maqbool H.; (2015), “Exports-Growth Nexus in Pakistan Cointegration and Causality Analysis”, Pakistan Economic and Social Review, 53 (1), pp. 17-46.
  • SANDALCILAR, Ali Rıza; (2012), “BRIC Ülkelerinde Ekonomik Büyüme ve İhracat Arasındaki İlişki: Panel Eşbütünleşme Ve Panel Nedensellik”, Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi, İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 17(1), ss. 161-179.
  • SARAÇ, Taha Bahadır; (2013), “İhracat ve İthalatın Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği”, Ege Akademik Bakış, 13(2), ss. 181-194.
  • SCHALTEGGER, Christoph ve TORGLER, Benno; (2006), “Growth Effects of Public Expenditure on The State and Local Level: Evidence From A Sample of Rich Governments”, Applied Economics, 38 (10), pp. 1181-1192.
  • SEABRA, Fernando ve GALIMBERTI, Jaqueson Kingeski; (2012), “Conditioned Export-Led Growth Hypothesis: A Panel Threshold Regressions Approach”, Revista de Economia, 38(2), pp. 7-23.
  • SERTELIS, Apostolos; (1992), “Export Growth and Canadian Economic Development”, Journal of Development Economics, 38, pp. 133-145.
  • SHUJAAT, Abbas; (2012), “Causality Between Exports and Economic Growth: Investigating Suitable Trade Policy For Pakistan”, Eurasian Journal of Business and Economics, 5(10), pp. 91-98.
  • SINGH, Balvir ve SAHNI, Balbir S.; (1984), “Causality Between Public Expenditure and National Income”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 66 (4), pp. 630-644.
  • SUBAŞI Meriç E.; (2017), “Çin’de Ekonomik Büyüme, Yoksulluk ve Gelir Eşitsizliği: Dünya Ekonomisinde Konumu”, Bilgi Ekonomisi ve Yönetimi Dergisi, 12(1), ss. 13-37.
  • ŞAHİN, Dilek ve DURMUŞ, Savaş; (2018), “Analysis of Relationship Between Foreign Trade and Economic Growth in Turkey”, The Journal of International Social Research, 11(60), http://dx.doi.org/10.17719/jisr.2018.2860.
  • ŞİT, Mustafa ve KARADAĞ, Haydar; (2018). “Türkiye Ekonomisinde Kamu Harcamaları-Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Toda-Yamamoto Nedensellik Testi”, Uluslararası Ticaret ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi, 2 (1), ss. 33-41.
  • TANG, T.C. (2006), “Export-Led Growth in Hong Kong: Empirical Evidence From The Components of Exports”, International Journal of Business and Society, 7(1), pp. 30-52.
  • TEMİZ, Dilek, ve GÖKMEN, Aytaç; (2010), “An Analysis of The Export and Economic Growth in Turkey Over The Period of 1950-2009”, International Journal of Economic and Administrative Studies, 2(5), 124-142.
  • TERZİ, Harun; (1999), “Kalkınma Sürecinde Kamu Harcamaları: Türkiye Üzerine Bir İnceleme”, İktisat, İşletme ve Finans Dergisi, 60, ss. 10-28.
  • TERZİ, Harun ve YURTKURAN, Süleyman; (2016), “Türkiye’de Eğitim ve İktisadi Büyüme İlişkisi: Sims ve Toda-Yamamoto Nedensellik Analizleri”, Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İİİBF Dergisi, 11(2), ss. 7- 24.
  • TODA, Hiro Y. ve YAMAMOTO Taku; (1995), “Statistical Inferences in Vector Autoregressions with Possibly Integrated Processes”, Journal of Econometrics, 66, pp. 225‐250.
  • TUNCER, İsmail; (2002), “Türkiye’de İhracat, İthalat ve Büyüme: Toda-Yamamoto Yöntemiyle Granger Nedensellik Analizleri (1980-2000)”, Çukurova Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 9(9).
  • TÜLÜMCE Sevinç Y. ve ZEREN Fatma; (2017), “Türkiye’de Kamu Harcamaları ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin Asimetrik Nedensellik Testi İle Analizi”, Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi, 13, (2), ss. 299-310.
  • TYLER, William G.; (1981), “Growth and Export Expansion in Developing Countries: Some Empirical Evidence”, Journal of Development Economics, 9(2), pp. 121-130.
  • ULUCAK, Recep ve ULUCAK, Zübeyde Ş.; (2014), “Kamu Harcamaları ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki Nedensellik: Türkiye Örneği”, Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi, 10 (23), ss. 81-97.
  • UYSAL, Doğan ve MUCUK, Mehmet; (2009), “Türkiye Ekonomisinde Kamu Harcamaları ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi”, Finans Politik ve Ekonomik Yorumlar, 46 (527).
  • UZAY, Nısfet; (2000), “Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde İhracat Artışı- İktisadi Büyüme İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği”, Erciyes Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 9, ss. 37-55.
  • WASIM, Ahmad ve NAIN, Zulquar; (2010), “Export-Led Growth Hypothesis in India: Some Further Evidences”, Monetary Economics IUP Magazine, 8, pp. 69-82.
  • WB (2018, 18 Mart), World Bank, Erişim adresi https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/china/overview
  • WB (2019, 22 Mart), World Bank, Erişim adresi https://data.worldbank.org/country/china
  • YAPRAKLI, Sevda; (2007), “İhracat İle Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki Nedensellik: Türkiye Üzerine Ekonometrik Bir Analiz”, ODTÜ Gelişme Dergisi, 34, ss. 97- 112.
  • YILDIZ, Fazlı ve SARISOY, Sinan; (2012), “OECD Ülkelerinde Kamu Harcamaları ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi Üzerine Ampirik Bir Çalışma”, Marmara Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 33(2), ss. 517-540.
  • YÜKSEL, Cihan ve SONGUR, Mehmet; (2011), “Kamu Harcamalarının Bileşenleri İle Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki: Ampirik Bir Analiz (1980-2010)”, Maliye Dergisi, 161, ss. 365-380.
  • ZANG, Wenyu ve BAIMBRIDGE, Mark; (2012), “Exports, Imports and Economic Growth in South Korea and Japon: A Tale of Economies”, Applied Economics, 44, pp. 361-372.
  • ZHENG, Yan, LI, Jiabai, WANG, Xiao-Li ve LI Changqing; (2010), “An Empirical Analysis of The Validity of Wagner’s Law in China A Case Study Based On Gibbs Sampler”, International Journal of Business and Management, 5(6), pp. 161-168.
There are 121 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Makaleler
Authors

Dilek Temiz Dinç 0000-0002-1792-4723

Publication Date December 31, 2019
Acceptance Date November 19, 2019
Published in Issue Year 2019 Issue: 54

Cite

APA Temiz Dinç, D. (2019). Çin’in ekonomik büyümesinde ivme kaybı: İhracat-kamu harcamaları etkisi, Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testi. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi(54), 461-486. https://doi.org/10.18070/erciyesiibd.546330

Ethical Principles and Ethical Guidelines

The Journal of Erciyes University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences places great emphasis on publication ethics, which serve as a foundation for the impartial and reputable advancement of scientific knowledge. In this context, the journal adopts a publishing approach aligned with the ethical standards set by the Committee on Publication Ethics (COPE) and is committed to preventing potential malpractice. The following ethical responsibilities, established based on COPE’s principles, are expected to be upheld by all stakeholders involved in the publication process (authors, readers and researchers, publishers, reviewers, and editors).

Ethical Responsibilities of Editors
Make decisions on submissions based on the quality and originality of the work, its alignment with the journal's aims and scope, and the reviewers’ evaluations, regardless of the authors' religion, language, race, ethnicity, political views, or gender.
Respond to information requests from readers, authors, and reviewers regarding the publication and evaluation processes.
Conduct all processes without compromising ethical standards and intellectual property rights.
Support freedom of thought and protect human and animal rights.
Ensure the peer review process adheres to the principle of double-blind peer review.
Take full responsibility for accepting, rejecting, or requesting changes to a manuscript and ensure that conflicts of interest among stakeholders do not influence these decisions.
Ethical Responsibilities of Authors
Submitted works must be original. When utilizing other works, proper and complete citations and/or references must be provided.
A manuscript must not be under review by another journal simultaneously.
Individuals who have not contributed to the experimental design, implementation, data analysis, or interpretation should not be listed as authors.
If requested during the review process, datasets used in the manuscript must be provided to the editorial board.
If a significant error or mistake is discovered in the manuscript, the journal’s editorial office must be notified.
For studies requiring ethical committee approval, the relevant document must be submitted to the journal. Details regarding the ethical approval (name of the ethics committee, approval document number, and date) must be included in the manuscript.
Changes to authorship (e.g., adding or removing authors, altering the order of authors) cannot be proposed after the review process has commenced.
Ethical Responsibilities of Reviewers
Accept review assignments only in areas where they have sufficient expertise.
Agree to review manuscripts in a timely and unbiased manner.
Ensure confidentiality of the reviewed manuscript and not disclose any information about it, during or after the review process, beyond what is already published.
Refrain from using information obtained during the review process for personal or third-party benefit.
Notify the journal editor if plagiarism or other ethical violations are suspected in the manuscript.
Conduct reviews objectively and avoid conflicts of interest. If a conflict exists, the reviewer should decline the review.
Use polite and constructive language during the review process and avoid personal comments.
Publication Policy
The Journal of Erciyes University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences is a free, open-access, peer-reviewed academic journal that has been in publication since 1981. The journal welcomes submissions in Turkish and English within the fields of economics, business administration, public finance, political science, public administration, and international relations.

No submission or publication fees are charged by the journal.
Every submitted manuscript undergoes a double-blind peer review process and similarity/plagiarism checks via iThenticate.
Submissions must be original and not previously published, accepted for publication, or under review elsewhere.
Articles published in the journal can be cited under the Open Access Policy and Creative Commons license, provided proper attribution is given.
The journal is published three times a year, in April, August, and December. It includes original, high-quality, and scientifically supported research articles and reviews in its listed fields. Academic studies unrelated to these disciplines or their theoretical and empirical foundations are not accepted. The journal's languages are Turkish and English.

Submissions are first subject to a preliminary review for format and content. Manuscripts not meeting the journal's standards are rejected by the editorial board. Manuscripts deemed suitable proceed to the peer review stage.

Each submission is sent to at least two expert reviewers. If both reviews are favorable, the article is approved for publication. In cases where one review is positive and the other negative, the editorial board decides based on the reviews or may send the manuscript to a third reviewer.

Articles published in the journal are open access and can be cited under the Creative Commons license, provided proper attribution is made.