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Year 2013, Issue: 42, 67 - 90, 18.05.2015

Tayfur Bayat Ahmet Şahbaz Taner Akçacı

Abstract

In this study, we investigate the relationship between real oil price and foreign trade deficit in Turkey by using monthly data belonging 1992M1-2012M4 period. In this regard, we employ nonlinear cointegration, nonlinear causality and frequency domain Granger type causality analysis methods. Empirical findings imply that there is a uni-directional nonlinear causality running from real oil price to foreign trade balance. But the causation linkage exists on the medium-term. In the light of the findings, while the volatility in oil price affects foreign trade balance of Turkey, the effect disappears on the long run

Keywords

Trade Balance Oil Prices Nonlinear Cointegration Nonlinear Casuality

References

  • AGMON, Tamir and Arthur B. LAFFER; (1978), “Trade, Payments and Ad- justment: The Case of Oil Price Rise”, Kyklos, 31, pp. 68–85.
  • ASIMOKOPOULOS, Ioannis; David AYLING and Wan M. MAHMOOD; (2000), “Nonlinear Granger Causality in the Currency Futures Returns”, Economics Letter, 68, pp.25-30.
  • BAEK, Ehung and William A. BROCK; (1992), “A General Test For Nonlinear Granger Causality: Bivariate Model”, Working Paper, Iowa State University and University of Wisconsin, Madison.
  • BALKE, Nathan S. and Thomas B. FOMBY; (1997), “Threshold Cointegra- tion”, International Economic Review, 38, pp.627-645.
  • BAUM, Christopher F. and Meral KARASULU; (1998), “Modelling Federal Reserve Discount Policy”, Computational Economics, 11, pp.53-70.
  • BERNANKE, Ben S.; Mark GERTLER and Mark WATSON; (1997), “Syste- matic Monetary Policy and The Effects of Oil Price Shocks”, Broo- kings Papers on Economic Activity, 1, pp. 91-142.
  • BREITUNG, Jorg and Bertrand CANDELON; (2006), “Testing For Short and Long-Run Causality: A Frequency Domain Approach”, Journal of Econometrics, 12, pp.363−378.
  • BROCK, William A.; (1991), “Causality, Chaos, Explanation and Prediction in Economics and Finance,” in John CASTI and Anders KARLQVIST (Ed.), Beyond Belief: Randomness, Prediction And Explanation in Science, Boca Raton: Crc Press, pp.1-125.
  • BROOKS, Chris and Sotiris TSOLACOS; (2000), “Does Orthogonalization Really Purge Equity Based Property Valuations Of Their General Stock Market Influences”, Applied Economics Letter, 7(5), pp.305-309.
  • BURBIDGE, John and Alan HARRISON; (1984), “Testing for the Effects of Oil-price Rise Using Vector Autoregression”, International Economic Review, 25, pp.459–484.
  • CINER, Çetin; (2001), “Energy Shocks and Financial Markets: Nonlinear Link- ages”, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 5(3), pp. 202-213.
  • CINER, Çetin; (2011), “Eurocurrency Interest Rate Linkages: A Frequency Domain Analysis”, International Review of Economics and Finance, 20, pp.498-505.
  • CHUKU, A. Chuku; Usenobong F. AKPAN; Ndifreke R. SAM and Ekpeno L. EFFIEONG; (2011), “Oil Price Shocks and the Dynamics of Current Account Balances in Nigeria”, OPEC Energy Review, 35(2), pp.119- 139
  • DEMİRCİ, Ebru ve Şebnem ER; (2007), “Ham Petrol Fiyatlarının Türkiye’deki Cari Açığa Etkisinin İncelenmesi”, 8. Türkiye Ekonometri ve İstatis- tik Ulusal Kongresi Bildiriler Kitabı, 24–25 Mayıs 2007, Malatya: İnönü Üniversitesi, ss.1-249.
  • DICKEY, David A. and Wayne A. FULLER; (1979), “Distribution Of The Es- timators For Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”, Journal of The American Statistical Association, 74, pp. 427- 431.
  • DICKEY, David A. and Wayne A. FULLER; (1981), “Likelihood Ratio Statis- tics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”, Econometrica, 49, pp.1057-72.
  • DOLADO, Juan J. and Helmut LUTKEPOHL; (1996), “Making Wald Test Work for Cointegrated VAR Systems”, Econometric Reviews, 15, pp.369-386.
  • DUTT, Swarna and Dipak GHOSH; (2005), “A Threshold Cointegration Test Of The Fisher Hypothesis: Case Study Of 5 European Nations”, South- western Economic Review, pp.40-50.
  • EDISON, Hali J.; (2003), “Do Indicators of Financial Crisis Work? An Evalua- tion of an Early Warning System”, International Journal of Finance and Economics, 8(1), pp.11-53.
  • EDWARDS, Sebastian; (1993), “Openness, Trade Liberalization, and Growth in Developing Countries”, Journal of Economic Literature, 31, pp.1358- 96.
  • ENDERS, Walter; (2009), Applied Econometric Times Series, Third Edition, USA: Wiley.
  • ENDERS, Walter and Barry FALK; (1998), “Threshold-Autoregressive, Medi- an-Unbiase and Cointegration Tests of Purchasing Power Parity”, In- ternational Journal of Forecasting, 14, pp.171-186.
  • ELLIOT, Graham; Thomas J. ROTHENBERG and James H. STOCK; (1996), “Efficient Tests For an Autoregressive Unit Root”, Econometrica, 64(4), pp.813-836.
  • ERDOĞAN Seyfettin ve BOZKURT Hilal; (2009), “Türkiye’de Cari Açığın Belirleyicileri: Mgarch Modelleri ile Bir İnceleme”, Maliye Finans Yazıları, 23(84), ss.135-172.
  • ERKILIÇ, Serdar; (2006),“Türkiye’de Cari Açığın Belirleyicileri”, Yayınlan- mamış Uzmanlık Yeterlilik Tezi, Ankara: Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Merkez Bankası, İstatistik Genel Müdürlüğü.
  • ESTEVE, Vicente; Manuel N. IBANEZ and Maria A. PRATS; (2006), “The Spanish Term Structure of Interest Rates Revisited: Cointegration with Multiple Structural Breaks: 1974-2010”, Economia Aplicada, Work- ing Paper Series, 2006-09, Internet Address: http://www.aeefi.com/ RePEc/pdf/defi10-08.pdf, Date of Access: 15.07.2013.
  • ESTEVE, Vicente and Maria A. PRATS; (2010), “The Spanish Term Structure of Interest Rates Revisited: Cointegration with Multiple Structural Breaks, 1974-2010”, Economia Aplicada, Working Paper Series, 2010-01, pp.1-21. Internet Address: http://ideas.repec.org/p/eec/ wpaper/1001.html, Date of Access: 15.07.2013.
  • FİRUZAN, Esin; (2010), “Türkiye Petrol Fiyatları Oynaklığının Modellen- mesi”, Ekonometri ve İstatistik Dergisi, 12, ss.1–17.
  • GHARTEY, Edward E.; (1993), “Causal Relationship between Exports and Economic Growth: Some Empirical Evidence in Taiwan, Japan, and the US”, Applied Economics, 25(8), pp.1145-1152.
  • GEWEKE, John; (1982), “Measurement of Linear Dependence and Feedback Between Multiple Time Series”, Journal of The American Statistical Association, 77, pp.304-313.
  • GISSER, Micha and Thomas H. GOODWIN; (1986), “Crude Oil and Macroe- conomy: Tests of Some Popular Notions”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 18, pp.95-103.
  • HAMILTON, James D.; (1983), “Oil and the Macroeconomy Since World War II”, Journal of Political Economy, 91(2), pp.228–248.
  • HANSEN, Bruce E.; (1996), “Inference When a Nuisance Parameter is not Identified Under The Null Hypothesis”, Econometrica, 57, pp.413-430.
  • HANSEN, Bruce E. and Byeongseon SEO; (2002), “Testing For Two-Regime Threshold Cointegration in Vector Error-Correction Models”, Journal of Econometrics, 110, pp. 293-318.
  • HIEMSTRA, Craig and Jonathan JONES; (1993), “Monte Carlo Results For A Modified Version of The Baek And Brock Nonlinear Granger Causality Test”, Working Paper, University Of Strathclyde, Internet Address: http://scholar.lib.vt.edu/ejournals/SNDE/002/abstracts/v2n3001.html, date of Access: 16.08.2013.
  • HIEMSTRA, Craig and Jonathan JONES; (1994), “Testing for Linear and Non- linear Granger Casuality in The Stock Price-Volume Relation”, Journal of Finance, 49(5), pp.1639-1664.
  • HOSOYA, Yuzo; (1991), “The Decomposition and Measurement of the Inter- dependence Between Second-Order Stationary Process”, Probability Theory and Related Fields, 88, pp.429-444.
  • IEA (International Energy Agency); (2001), “World Energy Outlook, Paris: Assessing Today’s Supplies to Fuel Tomorrow’s Growth”, OECD/IEA, Internet dia/weowebsite/2008-1994/ weo2001.pdf, Date of Access: 16.08.2013.
  • http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/ me
  • JAYARAMAN, Tiru K. and, Chee K. CHOONG; (2009), “Growth and Oil Pri- ce: A Study of Causal Relationship in Small Pacific Island Countries”, Energy Policy, 37(6), pp.2182-2189.
  • KARABULUT, Gökhan ve Ayşe Ç. DANIŞOĞLU; (2006), “Türkiye’de Cari İşlemler Açığının Büyümesini Etkileyen Faktörler”, Gazi İİBF Dergisi, 8(1), ss.47-63.
  • KAPETANIOS, George; Yongcheol SHIN and Andy SNELL; (2006), “Testing for Cointegration in Nonlinear Smooth Transition Error Correction Models”, Econometric Theory, 22(2), pp.279-303.
  • KILIÇ, Esin; (2009), “Türk İmalat Sektörü’nde İhracat, İthalat ve Döviz Kuru Arasındaki İlişkilerin Zaman Serisi Analizi”, Anadolu International Conference in Economics, June 17-19, Eskişehir: Anadolu Üniversi- tesi, İnternet Adresi: http://www.academia.edu/ 1187885/ Turk_Imalat_ Sektorun- de_Ihracat_Ithalat_ve_Doviz_Kuru_Arasindaki_Iliskilerin_Zaman_Seri si_Analizi, Erişim Tarihi: 16.08.2013.
  • KILIAN, Lutz; (2010), “Oil Price Volatility: Origins and Effects”, World Tra- de Organization Staff Working Paper, ERSD-2010-02, Internet Ad- dress: http://www.econstor.eu/handle/10419/57602, Date of Access: 15.06.2013.
  • KWIATKOWSKI, Dennis; Peter C.B. PHILLIPS; Peter SCHMIDT and Yong- cheol SHIN; (1992), “Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Eco- nomic Time Series Have a Unit Root?”, Journal Of Econometrics, 54(1-3), pp.159-178.
  • LO, Ming C. and Eric ZIVOT; (2001), “Threshold Cointegration and Nonlinear Adjustment to The Law of One Price”, Macroeconomic Dynamics, 5, pp.533-576.
  • MACKINNON, James G.; (1996), “Numerical Distribution Functions For Unit Root and Cointegration Tests”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 11, pp.601–618.
  • MEHRARA, Mohsen; (2008), “The Asymmetric Relationship Between Oil Revenues and Economic Activities: The Case of Oil-exporting Count- ries”, Energy Policy, 36, pp.1164–1168.
  • PRASAD, Arti; Paresh K. NARAYAN and Jashwini NARAYAN; (2007), “Exploring the Oil Price and Real GDP Nexus for a Small Island Eco- nomy, the Fiji Islands”, Energy Policy, 35, pp.6506–6513.
  • OBSTFELD, Maurice and Alan M. TAYLOR; (1997), “Nonlinear Aspects of Goods Market Arbitrage and Adjustment: Heckscher’s Commodity Points Revisited”, Journal of Japanese and International Economies, 11, pp.441-479.
  • OZLALE, Ümit and Didem PEKKURNAZ; (2010), “Oil Prices and Current Account: a Structural Analysis for Turkish Economy”, Energy Policy, 38(8), pp.4489–4496.
  • PEKER, Osman ve Hakan HOTUNLUOĞLU; (2009), “Türkiye’de Cari Açığın Nedenlerinin Ekonometrik Analiz”, Atatürk Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 23(3), ss.221-237.
  • PHILLIPS, Peter C.B. and Pierre PERRON; (1988), “Testing For A Unit Root in Time Series Regressions”, Biometrica, 75(2), pp.335-346.
  • RADELET, Steven and Jeffrey D. SACHS; (2000), “The Onset of the East Asian Financial Crisis in Currency Crises”, NBER and Chicago Uni- versity Press, Internet Address: www.nber.org/chapters/c8691.pdf, Date of Access: 22.06.2013.
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  • ROBINSON, P., M. (1995), “Log-Periodogram Regression of Time Series with Long Range Dependence”, Annals of Statistics, 23(3), pp.1048-1072.
  • SCHUBERT, Stefan F. (2013), “Dynamic Effects of Oil Price Shocks and Their Impact on the Current Account”, Macroeconomic Dynamics, 7, pp.1-- 22
  • TAYLOR, Alan M.; (2001), “A Century of Purchasing Power Parity”, Review of Economics and Statistics, 84, pp.139-150.
  • TODA, Hiro Y. and Taku YAMAMOTO; (1995), “Statistical Inference in Vec- tor Autoregressions with Possibly Integrated Processes”, Journal of Econometrics, 66, pp.225-250.
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PETROL FİYATLARININ DIŞ TİCARET AÇIĞI ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Year 2013, Issue: 42, 67 - 90, 18.05.2015

Tayfur Bayat Ahmet Şahbaz Taner Akçacı

Abstract

Bu çalışmada Türkiye’nin 1992:01-2012:04 dönemine ait aylık veriler kullanılarak reel petrol fiyatları ile dış ticaret dengesi arasındaki ilişki, doğrusal olmayan eşbütünleşme, doğrusal olmayan ve frekans alanı Granger tipi nedensellik analizleri kullanılarak incelenmiştir. Analizler sonucunda reel petrol fiyatından dış ticaret açığına tek yönlü nedenselliğin olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Fakat nedensellik ilişkisi sadece orta vadede geçerlidir. Buna göre Türkiye’de orta vadede petrol fiyatlarındaki oynaklıklar dış ticaret açıklarının oluşmasında etkili iken, uzun vadede dış ticaret açıkları üzerindeki etkisi kaybolmaktadır.

Keywords

Dış Ticaret Dengesi Petrol Fiyatları Doğrusal Olmayan Eşbütünleşme Doğrusal Olmayan Nedensellik Frekans Alanı Nedensellik.

References

  • AGMON, Tamir and Arthur B. LAFFER; (1978), “Trade, Payments and Ad- justment: The Case of Oil Price Rise”, Kyklos, 31, pp. 68–85.
  • ASIMOKOPOULOS, Ioannis; David AYLING and Wan M. MAHMOOD; (2000), “Nonlinear Granger Causality in the Currency Futures Returns”, Economics Letter, 68, pp.25-30.
  • BAEK, Ehung and William A. BROCK; (1992), “A General Test For Nonlinear Granger Causality: Bivariate Model”, Working Paper, Iowa State University and University of Wisconsin, Madison.
  • BALKE, Nathan S. and Thomas B. FOMBY; (1997), “Threshold Cointegra- tion”, International Economic Review, 38, pp.627-645.
  • BAUM, Christopher F. and Meral KARASULU; (1998), “Modelling Federal Reserve Discount Policy”, Computational Economics, 11, pp.53-70.
  • BERNANKE, Ben S.; Mark GERTLER and Mark WATSON; (1997), “Syste- matic Monetary Policy and The Effects of Oil Price Shocks”, Broo- kings Papers on Economic Activity, 1, pp. 91-142.
  • BREITUNG, Jorg and Bertrand CANDELON; (2006), “Testing For Short and Long-Run Causality: A Frequency Domain Approach”, Journal of Econometrics, 12, pp.363−378.
  • BROCK, William A.; (1991), “Causality, Chaos, Explanation and Prediction in Economics and Finance,” in John CASTI and Anders KARLQVIST (Ed.), Beyond Belief: Randomness, Prediction And Explanation in Science, Boca Raton: Crc Press, pp.1-125.
  • BROOKS, Chris and Sotiris TSOLACOS; (2000), “Does Orthogonalization Really Purge Equity Based Property Valuations Of Their General Stock Market Influences”, Applied Economics Letter, 7(5), pp.305-309.
  • BURBIDGE, John and Alan HARRISON; (1984), “Testing for the Effects of Oil-price Rise Using Vector Autoregression”, International Economic Review, 25, pp.459–484.
  • CINER, Çetin; (2001), “Energy Shocks and Financial Markets: Nonlinear Link- ages”, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 5(3), pp. 202-213.
  • CINER, Çetin; (2011), “Eurocurrency Interest Rate Linkages: A Frequency Domain Analysis”, International Review of Economics and Finance, 20, pp.498-505.
  • CHUKU, A. Chuku; Usenobong F. AKPAN; Ndifreke R. SAM and Ekpeno L. EFFIEONG; (2011), “Oil Price Shocks and the Dynamics of Current Account Balances in Nigeria”, OPEC Energy Review, 35(2), pp.119- 139
  • DEMİRCİ, Ebru ve Şebnem ER; (2007), “Ham Petrol Fiyatlarının Türkiye’deki Cari Açığa Etkisinin İncelenmesi”, 8. Türkiye Ekonometri ve İstatis- tik Ulusal Kongresi Bildiriler Kitabı, 24–25 Mayıs 2007, Malatya: İnönü Üniversitesi, ss.1-249.
  • DICKEY, David A. and Wayne A. FULLER; (1979), “Distribution Of The Es- timators For Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”, Journal of The American Statistical Association, 74, pp. 427- 431.
  • DICKEY, David A. and Wayne A. FULLER; (1981), “Likelihood Ratio Statis- tics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”, Econometrica, 49, pp.1057-72.
  • DOLADO, Juan J. and Helmut LUTKEPOHL; (1996), “Making Wald Test Work for Cointegrated VAR Systems”, Econometric Reviews, 15, pp.369-386.
  • DUTT, Swarna and Dipak GHOSH; (2005), “A Threshold Cointegration Test Of The Fisher Hypothesis: Case Study Of 5 European Nations”, South- western Economic Review, pp.40-50.
  • EDISON, Hali J.; (2003), “Do Indicators of Financial Crisis Work? An Evalua- tion of an Early Warning System”, International Journal of Finance and Economics, 8(1), pp.11-53.
  • EDWARDS, Sebastian; (1993), “Openness, Trade Liberalization, and Growth in Developing Countries”, Journal of Economic Literature, 31, pp.1358- 96.
  • ENDERS, Walter; (2009), Applied Econometric Times Series, Third Edition, USA: Wiley.
  • ENDERS, Walter and Barry FALK; (1998), “Threshold-Autoregressive, Medi- an-Unbiase and Cointegration Tests of Purchasing Power Parity”, In- ternational Journal of Forecasting, 14, pp.171-186.
  • ELLIOT, Graham; Thomas J. ROTHENBERG and James H. STOCK; (1996), “Efficient Tests For an Autoregressive Unit Root”, Econometrica, 64(4), pp.813-836.
  • ERDOĞAN Seyfettin ve BOZKURT Hilal; (2009), “Türkiye’de Cari Açığın Belirleyicileri: Mgarch Modelleri ile Bir İnceleme”, Maliye Finans Yazıları, 23(84), ss.135-172.
  • ERKILIÇ, Serdar; (2006),“Türkiye’de Cari Açığın Belirleyicileri”, Yayınlan- mamış Uzmanlık Yeterlilik Tezi, Ankara: Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Merkez Bankası, İstatistik Genel Müdürlüğü.
  • ESTEVE, Vicente; Manuel N. IBANEZ and Maria A. PRATS; (2006), “The Spanish Term Structure of Interest Rates Revisited: Cointegration with Multiple Structural Breaks: 1974-2010”, Economia Aplicada, Work- ing Paper Series, 2006-09, Internet Address: http://www.aeefi.com/ RePEc/pdf/defi10-08.pdf, Date of Access: 15.07.2013.
  • ESTEVE, Vicente and Maria A. PRATS; (2010), “The Spanish Term Structure of Interest Rates Revisited: Cointegration with Multiple Structural Breaks, 1974-2010”, Economia Aplicada, Working Paper Series, 2010-01, pp.1-21. Internet Address: http://ideas.repec.org/p/eec/ wpaper/1001.html, Date of Access: 15.07.2013.
  • FİRUZAN, Esin; (2010), “Türkiye Petrol Fiyatları Oynaklığının Modellen- mesi”, Ekonometri ve İstatistik Dergisi, 12, ss.1–17.
  • GHARTEY, Edward E.; (1993), “Causal Relationship between Exports and Economic Growth: Some Empirical Evidence in Taiwan, Japan, and the US”, Applied Economics, 25(8), pp.1145-1152.
  • GEWEKE, John; (1982), “Measurement of Linear Dependence and Feedback Between Multiple Time Series”, Journal of The American Statistical Association, 77, pp.304-313.
  • GISSER, Micha and Thomas H. GOODWIN; (1986), “Crude Oil and Macroe- conomy: Tests of Some Popular Notions”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 18, pp.95-103.
  • HAMILTON, James D.; (1983), “Oil and the Macroeconomy Since World War II”, Journal of Political Economy, 91(2), pp.228–248.
  • HANSEN, Bruce E.; (1996), “Inference When a Nuisance Parameter is not Identified Under The Null Hypothesis”, Econometrica, 57, pp.413-430.
  • HANSEN, Bruce E. and Byeongseon SEO; (2002), “Testing For Two-Regime Threshold Cointegration in Vector Error-Correction Models”, Journal of Econometrics, 110, pp. 293-318.
  • HIEMSTRA, Craig and Jonathan JONES; (1993), “Monte Carlo Results For A Modified Version of The Baek And Brock Nonlinear Granger Causality Test”, Working Paper, University Of Strathclyde, Internet Address: http://scholar.lib.vt.edu/ejournals/SNDE/002/abstracts/v2n3001.html, date of Access: 16.08.2013.
  • HIEMSTRA, Craig and Jonathan JONES; (1994), “Testing for Linear and Non- linear Granger Casuality in The Stock Price-Volume Relation”, Journal of Finance, 49(5), pp.1639-1664.
  • HOSOYA, Yuzo; (1991), “The Decomposition and Measurement of the Inter- dependence Between Second-Order Stationary Process”, Probability Theory and Related Fields, 88, pp.429-444.
  • IEA (International Energy Agency); (2001), “World Energy Outlook, Paris: Assessing Today’s Supplies to Fuel Tomorrow’s Growth”, OECD/IEA, Internet dia/weowebsite/2008-1994/ weo2001.pdf, Date of Access: 16.08.2013.
  • http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/ me
  • JAYARAMAN, Tiru K. and, Chee K. CHOONG; (2009), “Growth and Oil Pri- ce: A Study of Causal Relationship in Small Pacific Island Countries”, Energy Policy, 37(6), pp.2182-2189.
  • KARABULUT, Gökhan ve Ayşe Ç. DANIŞOĞLU; (2006), “Türkiye’de Cari İşlemler Açığının Büyümesini Etkileyen Faktörler”, Gazi İİBF Dergisi, 8(1), ss.47-63.
  • KAPETANIOS, George; Yongcheol SHIN and Andy SNELL; (2006), “Testing for Cointegration in Nonlinear Smooth Transition Error Correction Models”, Econometric Theory, 22(2), pp.279-303.
  • KILIÇ, Esin; (2009), “Türk İmalat Sektörü’nde İhracat, İthalat ve Döviz Kuru Arasındaki İlişkilerin Zaman Serisi Analizi”, Anadolu International Conference in Economics, June 17-19, Eskişehir: Anadolu Üniversi- tesi, İnternet Adresi: http://www.academia.edu/ 1187885/ Turk_Imalat_ Sektorun- de_Ihracat_Ithalat_ve_Doviz_Kuru_Arasindaki_Iliskilerin_Zaman_Seri si_Analizi, Erişim Tarihi: 16.08.2013.
  • KILIAN, Lutz; (2010), “Oil Price Volatility: Origins and Effects”, World Tra- de Organization Staff Working Paper, ERSD-2010-02, Internet Ad- dress: http://www.econstor.eu/handle/10419/57602, Date of Access: 15.06.2013.
  • KWIATKOWSKI, Dennis; Peter C.B. PHILLIPS; Peter SCHMIDT and Yong- cheol SHIN; (1992), “Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Eco- nomic Time Series Have a Unit Root?”, Journal Of Econometrics, 54(1-3), pp.159-178.
  • LO, Ming C. and Eric ZIVOT; (2001), “Threshold Cointegration and Nonlinear Adjustment to The Law of One Price”, Macroeconomic Dynamics, 5, pp.533-576.
  • MACKINNON, James G.; (1996), “Numerical Distribution Functions For Unit Root and Cointegration Tests”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 11, pp.601–618.
  • MEHRARA, Mohsen; (2008), “The Asymmetric Relationship Between Oil Revenues and Economic Activities: The Case of Oil-exporting Count- ries”, Energy Policy, 36, pp.1164–1168.
  • PRASAD, Arti; Paresh K. NARAYAN and Jashwini NARAYAN; (2007), “Exploring the Oil Price and Real GDP Nexus for a Small Island Eco- nomy, the Fiji Islands”, Energy Policy, 35, pp.6506–6513.
  • OBSTFELD, Maurice and Alan M. TAYLOR; (1997), “Nonlinear Aspects of Goods Market Arbitrage and Adjustment: Heckscher’s Commodity Points Revisited”, Journal of Japanese and International Economies, 11, pp.441-479.
  • OZLALE, Ümit and Didem PEKKURNAZ; (2010), “Oil Prices and Current Account: a Structural Analysis for Turkish Economy”, Energy Policy, 38(8), pp.4489–4496.
  • PEKER, Osman ve Hakan HOTUNLUOĞLU; (2009), “Türkiye’de Cari Açığın Nedenlerinin Ekonometrik Analiz”, Atatürk Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 23(3), ss.221-237.
  • PHILLIPS, Peter C.B. and Pierre PERRON; (1988), “Testing For A Unit Root in Time Series Regressions”, Biometrica, 75(2), pp.335-346.
  • RADELET, Steven and Jeffrey D. SACHS; (2000), “The Onset of the East Asian Financial Crisis in Currency Crises”, NBER and Chicago Uni- versity Press, Internet Address: www.nber.org/chapters/c8691.pdf, Date of Access: 22.06.2013.
  • REBUCCI, Alessandro and Nikola SPATAFORA; (2006), “Oil Prices and Glo- bal Imbalances,” in International Monetary Fund, IMF World Econo- mic Outlook, April 2006: Globalization and Inflation, Washington: DC, pp.71–76.
  • ROBINSON, P., M. (1995), “Log-Periodogram Regression of Time Series with Long Range Dependence”, Annals of Statistics, 23(3), pp.1048-1072.
  • SCHUBERT, Stefan F. (2013), “Dynamic Effects of Oil Price Shocks and Their Impact on the Current Account”, Macroeconomic Dynamics, 7, pp.1-- 22
  • TAYLOR, Alan M.; (2001), “A Century of Purchasing Power Parity”, Review of Economics and Statistics, 84, pp.139-150.
  • TODA, Hiro Y. and Taku YAMAMOTO; (1995), “Statistical Inference in Vec- tor Autoregressions with Possibly Integrated Processes”, Journal of Econometrics, 66, pp.225-250.
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Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Makaleler
Authors

Tayfur Bayat This is me

Ahmet Şahbaz This is me

Taner Akçacı This is me

Publication Date May 18, 2015
Published in Issue Year 2013 Issue: 42

Cite

APA Bayat, T., Şahbaz, A., & Akçacı, T. (2015). PETROL FİYATLARININ DIŞ TİCARET AÇIĞI ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi(42), 67-90.

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