Uluslararası Turizm Talebini Etkileyen Ekonomik Faktörler: Türkiye Üzerine Bir Uygulama

Ahmet Aydın; Burak Darıcı; Hacı Taşçı

doi:10.18070/euiibfd.85938

-

Yıl 2015, Sayı: 45, 143 - 177, 20.07.2015

Ahmet Aydın Burak Darıcı Hacı Taşçı

https://doi.org/10.18070/euiibfd.85938

Cited By: 19

Öz

The main purpose of the study is to investigate the main factors that determine the tourism demand to Turkey. For this aim, we employed panel data methods on turizm demand data of firstfive countries which have the highest share with respect to the number of tourists coming to Turkey. The main determinants of tourism demand cited in the literature cover macroeconomic variables, such as gdp, price level, transportation and other costs, exchange rate and etc. In this study, after having carried out the pre-estimation tests (cross-sectional dependence, stationarity and co-integration tests) on the panel data, the estimation results of the econometric model to determine the tourism demand to Turkey is discussed. We find, as expected from the literature, that transportation costs and inflation have negative effects on tourism demand, whereas exchange rate has a positive effect on tourism demand. However, per capita GDP of tourist sending country has a negative and strong effect on tourism demand. This is in contrast to findings in the literature and can be considered as an indicator of a significant problem in the tourism sector in Turkey

Anahtar Kelimeler

International Tourism Demand, Panel Data, Turkish Economy

Kaynakça

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Uluslararası Turizm Talebini Etkileyen Ekonomik Faktörler: Türkiye Üzerine Bir Uygulama

Yıl 2015, Sayı: 45, 143 - 177, 20.07.2015

Ahmet Aydın Burak Darıcı Hacı Taşçı

https://doi.org/10.18070/euiibfd.85938

Cited By: 19

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı, 1996(1)-2013(4) döneminde Türkiye’ye yönelik uluslararası turizm talebini etkileyen ekonomik faktörleri araştırmaktır. Bu kapsamda, Türkiye’ye gelen turist sayısı itibariyle en yüksek paya sahip ilk beş ülke için bir panel veri analizi yapılmıştır. Literatürde turizm talebinin belirleyicileri içinde en çok yer verilen makroekonomik değişkenler milli gelir, fiyatlar, taşıma maliyetleri ve döviz kurlarıdır. Bu çalışmada da literatürde yer alan bu temel değişkenler esas alınmıştır. Değişkenlere ait ön-testler (yatay-kesit bağımlılığı, durağanlık ve uzun dönem ilişkinin olup olmadığı) yapılmış, kurulan ekonometrik model tahmin edilmiş ve Türkiye’ye yönelik turizm talebinin belirleyicileri tespit edilmeye çalışılmıştır. Turizm fiyatları ve seyahat maliyetleri ile turizm talebi arasında beklendiği gibi negatif ve güçlü, döviz kurları ile turizm talebi arasında ise pozitif ve güçlü ilişki bulunmuştur. Bu bulgular, literature ile uyumludur. Türkiye’ye turist gönderen ülkelerin milli geliri ile Türkiye’ye yönelik turizm talebi arasında ise negatif ve güçlü ilişki bulunmuştur. Literatür ile farklı olan bu durum, Türkiye turizm sektörü için önemli bir soruna işaret etmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Uluslararası Turizm Talebi, Panel Veri, Türkiye Ekonomisi.

Kaynakça

AKIŞ, Sevgin; (1998), “A Compact Econometric Model of Tourism Demand for Turkey”, Tourism Management, 19(I), pp. 99-102.
AKTAŞ, Cengiz; (2005), “Türkiye’ nin Turizm Gelirini Etkileyen Değişkenler İçin En Uygun Regresyon Denkleminin Belirlenmesi”, Doğuş Üniversi- tesi Dergisi, 6(2), ss.163-174.
ALLEN, David; Ghialy YAP and Riaz SHAREEF; (2009), “Modelling Interstate Tourism Demand in Australia: A Cointegration Approach”, Mathemat- ics and Computers in Simulation, 79, pp.2733-2740.
ASLAN, Alper; (2008), “Türkiye' de Ekonomik Büyüme ve Turizm ilişkisi üzerine Ekonometrik Analiz”, Munich Personal Repec Archive MPRA, MPRA Paper No: 10611, İnternet Adresi: http://mpra.ub.uni- muenchen.de/10611/, Erişim Tarihi: 03.11.2014.
BADILLO, Rosa; Carmelo REVERTE and Elena RUBIO; (2011), “The Fisher Effect in the EU Revisited: New Evidence Using Panel Cointegration Es- timation with Global Stochastic Trends” Applied Economics Letters, 18(3), pp.1247-1251.
BAHAR, Ozan ve Kurtuluş BOZKURT; (2010), “Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde Turizm-Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Dinamik Panel Veri Analizi”, Ana- tolia: Turizm Araştırmaları Dergisi, 21(2), ss.255-265.
BAI, Jushan and Chihwa KAO; (2006), “On the Estimation and Inference of a Panel Cointegration Model with Cross-Sectional Dependence”, in Badi BALTAGI (Ed.), Panel Data Econometrics: Theoretical Contribu- tions and Empirical Applications, Amsterdam: Elsevier Science, pp. 3- 30.
BAI, Jushan and Serena NG; (2004), “A Panic Attack on Unit Roots and Cointe- gration”, Econometrica, 72, pp.1127–177.
BAI, Jushan; Chihwa KAO and Serena NG; (2009), “Panel Cointegration with Global Stochastic Trends”, Journal of Econometrics, 149, pp. 82-99.
BALTAGI, Badi H.; (2014), The Oxford Handbook of Panel Data, First Edi- tion, OUP-USA: Oxford University Press.
BICAK, H. Ali; Mehmet ALTINAY and Hatice JENKINS; (2005), “Forecasting the Tourism Demand of North Cyprus”, Journal of Hospitality & Lei- sure http://dx.doi.org/10.1300/ J150v12n03_06, Date of Access: 02.11.2014. 12(3), pp.87-99, Internet Address:
BODART, Vincent J.; Bertrand CANDELON and Jean-François CARPENTIER; (2012), “Real Exchanges Rates in Commodity Producing Countries: A Reappraisal”, Journal of International Money and Finance, 31(6), pp.1482-1502.
BOTTASSO, Anna; Caroline CASTAGNETTI and Maurizio CONTI; (2013), “And Yet They Co-move Public Capital and Productivity in OECD”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 35, pp.713-729.
CAMARERO, Mariam; Estrella G´OMEZ and Cecilio TAMARIT; (2013), “EMU and Trade Revisited: Long-Run Evidence Using Gravity Equa- tions”, The World Economy, 36, pp.1146-64.
CHO, Vincent; (2009), “A Study on the Temporal Dynamics of Tourism Demand in the Asia Pacific Region”, International Journal of Tourism Re- search, 11, pp.465-485.
CHO, Vincent; (2010), “A Study of the Non-economic Determinants in Tourism Demand”, International Journal Of Tourism Research, 12, pp.307- 320.
CHU, Fong-Lin; (2009), “Forecasting Tourism Demand with ARMA-Based Methods”, Tourism Management, 30, pp.740-751.
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Toplam 98 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil	Türkçe
Bölüm	Makaleler
Yazarlar	Ahmet Aydın Bu kişi benim Burak Darıcı Bu kişi benim Hacı Taşçı Bu kişi benim
Yayımlanma Tarihi	20 Temmuz 2015
Yayımlandığı Sayı	Yıl 2015 Sayı: 45

Kaynak Göster

APA	Aydın, A., Darıcı, B., & Taşçı, H. (2015). Uluslararası Turizm Talebini Etkileyen Ekonomik Faktörler: Türkiye Üzerine Bir Uygulama. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi(45), 143-177. https://doi.org/10.18070/euiibfd.85938