ANALYSIS OF RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TOURISM INCOME AND ECONOMIC GROWTH BY SYMMETRIC AND ASYMMETRIC CAUSALITY APPROACHES: THE CASE OF TURKEY
Abstract
This study tests the relationship between tourism income and economic growth in Turkey by employing linear and non-linear time series causality and asymmetric causality analysis developed by Hatemi-J (2012). In this study, we employ annual data belonging 1963–2010 time period. Empirical results obtained from symmetric causality analyses imply that there is a linear causation linkage between economic growth and tourism income running from tourism income to economic growth. The findings obtained from asymmetric causality analysis also indicate that the direction of causality is from tourism income to economic growth.
Keywords
Tourism Economic Growth Bootstrap Toda-Yamamoto Linear Causality Nonlinear Causality Asymmetric Causality
References
- ARSLANTÜRK, Yalçın ve Sibel ATAN; (2012), “Dynamic Relation Between Economic Growth, Foreign Exchange And Tourism Incomes: An Econometric Perspective On Turkey”, Journal of Business, Econo- mics and Finance, 1(1), pp.30-37.
- ASLAN, Alper; (2008), “Türkiye’de Ekonomik Büyüme ve Turizm İlişkisi Üze- rine Ekonometrik Analiz”, Erciyes Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 24(1), ss.1–11.
- BAHAR, Ozan ve Kurtuluş BOZKURT; (2010), “Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde Turizm-Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Dinamik Panel Veri Analizi”, Anatolia: Turizm Araştırmaları Dergisi, 21(2), ss. 255-265.
- BAHAR, Ozan ve Metin KOZAK; (2005), Uluslararası Turizm ve Rekabet Edebilirlik, İkinci Baskı, Ankara: Detay Yayıncılık.
- BAHAR, Ozan; (2006), “Turizm Sektörünün Türkiye’nin Ekonomik Büyümesi Üzerindeki Etkisi: VAR Analizi Yaklaşımı”, C.B.Ü. Yönetim ve Ekonomi Dergisi, 13 (2), ss. 137-150.
- BALAGUER, Jacint and Manuel CANTAVELLA-JORDÁ; (2002), “Tourism as a Long-run Economic Growth Factor: The Spanish Case”, Applied Economics, 34(7), pp. 877-884.
- BANERJEE, Anindya; Juan J. DOLADO and Ricardo MESTRE; (1998), “Er- ror-correction Mechanism Tests for Cointegration in a Single- equation Framework”, Journal of Time Series Analysis, 19 (3), pp. 267-283.
- BELK, Russell W. and Janeen Arnold COSTA; (1995), “International Tourism: An Assessment and Overview”, Journal of Macromarketing, 15 (2), pp.33-49.
- BHAGWATI, Jagdish N. and Thirukodikaval Nilakanta SRINIVASON; (1979), “Trade Policy and Development”, in Dornbusch RUDIGER and Jacob FRENKEL (Ed.), International Economic Policy: Theory and Evi- dence, Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, pp. 1-35.
- BOZKURT, Hilal; (2007), Zaman Serileri Analizi, İkinci Baskı, Bursa: Ekin Kitabevi.
- BREITUNG, Jörg and Bertrand CANDELON; (2006). “Testing For Short And Long-Run Causality: A Frequency Domain Approach”, Journal of Econometrics, 12, pp. 363-378.
- BRITTON, Stephen G.; (1982), “The Political Economy of Tourism in the Third World”, Annals of Tourism Research, 9, pp. 331-358.
- BRIDA, Juan Gabriel; Wiston Adriàn RISSO and Edgar J. Sanchez CARRERA; (2008), “A Long-Run Equilibrium Demand Function: The Mexican Tourism”, TOURISMOS: An International Multidisciplinary Jo- urnal of Tourism, 3(1), pp. 66-82.
- CHAREMZA, Wojciech and Derek F. DEADMAN; (1992), New Directions in Econometric Practice General to Spesific Modelling, Cointegra- tion and Vector Autoregressions, First Edition, London: Edward El- gar Publishing.
- CHEN, Ching and Song Zan CHIOU-WEI; (2009), “Tourism Expansion, Tou- rism Uncertainty and Economic Growth: New Evidence from Taiwan and Korea”, Tourism Management, 30, pp. 812-818.
- CHO, Vincent; (2003), “A Comparison of Three Different Approaches to Tou- rist Arrival Forecasting”, Tourism Management, 24, pp. 323-330.
- CİNER, Çetin; (2011), “Eurocurrency Interest Rate Linkages: A Frequency Domain Analysis”, International Review of Economics and Finan- ce, 20, pp. 498-505.
- CLANCY, Micheal; (1999), “Tourism and Development: Evidencefrom Mexi- co”, Annals of Tourism Research, 26(1), pp.1-20.
- COPELAND, Brian; (1991), “Tourism, Welfare and De-industrialization in a Small Open Economy”, Economica, 58, November, pp. 515-529.
- CROES, Robertico R.; (2006), “A Paradigm Shift to a New Strategy for Small Island Economies:Embracing Demand Side Economics for Value En- hancement and Long Term Economic Stability”, Tourism Manage- ment, 27 (3), pp. 453–465.
- ÇETİNTAŞ, Hakan ve Çetin BEKTAŞ; (2008), “Türkiye’de Turizm ve Ekono- mik Büyüme Arasındaki Kısa ve Uzun Dönemli İlişkiler”, Anatolia Turizm Araştırmaları Dergisi, 19(1), ss. 1-8.
Turizm Gelirleri-Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisinin Simetrik ve Asimetrik Nedensellik Yaklaşımı İle Analizi: Türkiye Örneği
Abstract
Bu çalışma Türkiye’de turizm gelirleri ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiyi doğrusal ve doğrusal olmayan zaman serisi nedensellik ve Hatemi-J (2012) tarafından geliştirilen asimetrik nedensellik yöntemi yardımı ile test etmektedir. Çalışmada 1963-2010 yılları arasında döneme ait veri seti kullanılmaktadır. Simetrik nedensellik analizlerinden elde edilen ampirik bulgular değişkenler arasında turizm gelirlerinden ekonomik büyümeye doğru doğrusal bir nedenselliğin olduğunu göstermektedir. Asimetrik nedensellik analizinden elde edilen bulgular ise nedenselliğin turizm gelirlerinden ekonomik büyümeye doğru olduğunu teyit etmektedir.
Keywords
Turizm Ekonomik Büyüme Toda-Yamamoto Doğrusal Nedensellik Doğrusal Olmayan Nedensellik Asimetrik Nedensellik.
References
- ARSLANTÜRK, Yalçın ve Sibel ATAN; (2012), “Dynamic Relation Between Economic Growth, Foreign Exchange And Tourism Incomes: An Econometric Perspective On Turkey”, Journal of Business, Econo- mics and Finance, 1(1), pp.30-37.
- ASLAN, Alper; (2008), “Türkiye’de Ekonomik Büyüme ve Turizm İlişkisi Üze- rine Ekonometrik Analiz”, Erciyes Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 24(1), ss.1–11.
- BAHAR, Ozan ve Kurtuluş BOZKURT; (2010), “Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde Turizm-Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Dinamik Panel Veri Analizi”, Anatolia: Turizm Araştırmaları Dergisi, 21(2), ss. 255-265.
- BAHAR, Ozan ve Metin KOZAK; (2005), Uluslararası Turizm ve Rekabet Edebilirlik, İkinci Baskı, Ankara: Detay Yayıncılık.
- BAHAR, Ozan; (2006), “Turizm Sektörünün Türkiye’nin Ekonomik Büyümesi Üzerindeki Etkisi: VAR Analizi Yaklaşımı”, C.B.Ü. Yönetim ve Ekonomi Dergisi, 13 (2), ss. 137-150.
- BALAGUER, Jacint and Manuel CANTAVELLA-JORDÁ; (2002), “Tourism as a Long-run Economic Growth Factor: The Spanish Case”, Applied Economics, 34(7), pp. 877-884.
- BANERJEE, Anindya; Juan J. DOLADO and Ricardo MESTRE; (1998), “Er- ror-correction Mechanism Tests for Cointegration in a Single- equation Framework”, Journal of Time Series Analysis, 19 (3), pp. 267-283.
- BELK, Russell W. and Janeen Arnold COSTA; (1995), “International Tourism: An Assessment and Overview”, Journal of Macromarketing, 15 (2), pp.33-49.
- BHAGWATI, Jagdish N. and Thirukodikaval Nilakanta SRINIVASON; (1979), “Trade Policy and Development”, in Dornbusch RUDIGER and Jacob FRENKEL (Ed.), International Economic Policy: Theory and Evi- dence, Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, pp. 1-35.
- BOZKURT, Hilal; (2007), Zaman Serileri Analizi, İkinci Baskı, Bursa: Ekin Kitabevi.
- BREITUNG, Jörg and Bertrand CANDELON; (2006). “Testing For Short And Long-Run Causality: A Frequency Domain Approach”, Journal of Econometrics, 12, pp. 363-378.
- BRITTON, Stephen G.; (1982), “The Political Economy of Tourism in the Third World”, Annals of Tourism Research, 9, pp. 331-358.
- BRIDA, Juan Gabriel; Wiston Adriàn RISSO and Edgar J. Sanchez CARRERA; (2008), “A Long-Run Equilibrium Demand Function: The Mexican Tourism”, TOURISMOS: An International Multidisciplinary Jo- urnal of Tourism, 3(1), pp. 66-82.
- CHAREMZA, Wojciech and Derek F. DEADMAN; (1992), New Directions in Econometric Practice General to Spesific Modelling, Cointegra- tion and Vector Autoregressions, First Edition, London: Edward El- gar Publishing.
- CHEN, Ching and Song Zan CHIOU-WEI; (2009), “Tourism Expansion, Tou- rism Uncertainty and Economic Growth: New Evidence from Taiwan and Korea”, Tourism Management, 30, pp. 812-818.
- CHO, Vincent; (2003), “A Comparison of Three Different Approaches to Tou- rist Arrival Forecasting”, Tourism Management, 24, pp. 323-330.
- CİNER, Çetin; (2011), “Eurocurrency Interest Rate Linkages: A Frequency Domain Analysis”, International Review of Economics and Finan- ce, 20, pp. 498-505.
- CLANCY, Micheal; (1999), “Tourism and Development: Evidencefrom Mexi- co”, Annals of Tourism Research, 26(1), pp.1-20.
- COPELAND, Brian; (1991), “Tourism, Welfare and De-industrialization in a Small Open Economy”, Economica, 58, November, pp. 515-529.
- CROES, Robertico R.; (2006), “A Paradigm Shift to a New Strategy for Small Island Economies:Embracing Demand Side Economics for Value En- hancement and Long Term Economic Stability”, Tourism Manage- ment, 27 (3), pp. 453–465.
- ÇETİNTAŞ, Hakan ve Çetin BEKTAŞ; (2008), “Türkiye’de Turizm ve Ekono- mik Büyüme Arasındaki Kısa ve Uzun Dönemli İlişkiler”, Anatolia Turizm Araştırmaları Dergisi, 19(1), ss. 1-8.
Details
| Primary Language | Turkish |
|---|---|
| Journal Section | Makaleler |
| Authors | |
| Publication Date | November 17, 2015 |
| Published in Issue | Year 2015 Issue: 46 |
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