Strong union or just friendshoring? Assessing trade uncertainty and export patterns in Türkiye and EU-27 countries: A GWR approach

Year 2025, Issue: 71, 27 - 32, 30.08.2025

Emre Özsalman , Tayfur Bayat

https://doi.org/10.18070/erciyesiibd.1650007

Abstract

In the last twenty years, the world has witnessed many structural shocks originating from political, financial, and epidemic diseases. While these shocks deeply affect countries’ economies, they also increase the level of uncertainty on a global scale. In order to establish more resilient systems based on the shocks experienced, countries have turned to developing their trade relations and reviving the trade that has shrunk during crisis periods. In this context, the concept of “friendshoring” that emerged refers to strengthening trade between countries with similar political and economic values. This study examined the connection between trade uncertainty and bilateral trade relations within Türkiye and EU27 countries using the Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) method. An analysis of bilateral export flows from 2003 to 2022, in conjunction with the World Trade Uncertainty Index (WTUI) developed by Ahir, Bloom, and Furceri (2022), indicates that trade uncertainty significantly affected exports in only four EU member states: Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, and Croatia. This result shows that, despite the overall unity of the European Union, only certain groups of countries demonstrate trade resilience in times of crisis and that the friendshoring approach is gaining increasing importance within the Union.

Keywords

Exports , Trade policy uncertainty , GWR , EU-27

Güçlü birlik mi yoksa sadece sınır iş birliği mi? Türkiye ve AB-27 ülkelerinin ihracat ve ticaret belirsizliği arasındaki ilişkinin GWR tekniği ile incelenmesi

Abstract

Son yirmi yılda dünya, politik, finansal ve salgın hastalıklar kökenli birçok yapısal şoka sahne olmuştur. Bu şoklar ülkelerin ekonomilerini derinden etkilerken aynı zamanda da küresel ölçekte belirsizlik düzeyini de arttırmaktadırlar. Ülkeler yaşanılan şoklardan hareketle daha dayanıklı sistemler kurabilmek adına ticari ilişkilerini geliştirme ve kriz dönemlerinde daralan ticareti yeniden canlandırma arayışlarına yönelmişlerdir. Bu bağlamda ortaya çıkan “friendshoring” kavramı, benzer siyasi ve ekonomik değerlere sahip ülkeler arasında ticaretin güçlendirilmesini ifade etmektedir. Bu çalışmada, ticari belirsizlik ile Türkiye ve AB-27 ülkeleri arasındaki ikili ticaret ilişkileri arasındaki bağlantı Coğrafi Ağırlıklı Regresyon (GWR) yöntemiyle incelenmiştir. 2003-2022 dönemi verileriyle oluşturulan analizde, Ahir vd. (2022) tarafından geliştirilen Dünya Ticaret Belirsizliği Endeksi (WTUI) kullanılmıştır. Bulgular, ihracat ile belirsizlik arasındaki ilişkinin yalnızca Polonya, Macaristan, Slovakya ve Hırvatistan için anlamlı olduğunu göstermektedir. Bu sonuç, Avrupa Birliği’nin genel bütünlüğüne rağmen, yalnızca belirli ülke gruplarının kriz zamanlarında ticari dayanıklılık sergilediğini ve friendshoring yaklaşımının Birlik içinde giderek önem kazandığını ortaya koymaktadır.

Keywords

İhracat , Ticari belirsizlik endeksi , GWR , AB-27

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