İslami Bankacılık ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Afganistan Örneği

Abstract

Bu çalışma, Afganistan’da toplam İslami bankacılık faaliyetleri ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki kısa ve uzun dönemli ilişkiyi ampirik olarak incelemektedir. 2013Q4-2024Q2 dönemi verilerini kapsayan çalışmada, ekonomik büyüme reel GSYİH (LRGDP) ile, İslami bankacılık faaliyetleri toplam varlıklar (LTA) ile ve kâr payı yatırım hesapları (LPSIA) ile temsil edilmiştir. Kontrol değişkeni olarak tüketici fiyat endeksi (LCPI) kullanılmıştır. Değişkenler arasındaki ilişkiler, Genişletilmiş Otoregresif Dağıtılmış Gecikme (A-ARDL) yöntemiyle analiz edilmiştir. Bulgular, uzun dönemde kâr payı yatırım hesaplarının ekonomik büyüme üzerinde pozitif ve anlamlı bir etkiye sahip olduğunu (katsayı: 1.2249, p<0.01), enflasyonun ise büyümeyi olumsuz etkilediğini (katsayı: -1.2968, p<0.01) göstermektedir. İslami bankacılık toplam varlıklarının uzun dönem etkisi istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bulunmamıştır. Kısa dönemde değişkenler arasında dalgalı etkileşimler tespit edilmiş ve hata düzeltme mekanizmasının işlediği (ECT = -0.4163, p<0.01) görülmüştür. Çalışma, Afganistan’da İslami bankacılığın özellikle kâr payı yatırım hesapları kanalıyla ekonomik büyümeyi desteklediğini ortaya koymakta; fiyat istikrarı ve kurumsal reformların önemini vurgulamaktadır.

Keywords

• İslami Bankacılık
• Kâr Payı Yatırım Hesapları
• Ekonomik Büyüme
• Afganistan
• A-ARDL

The Relationship Between Islamic Banking and Economic Growth: The Case of Afghanistan

Abstract

This study empirically examines the short and long-run relationship between total Islamic banking activities and economic growth in Afghanistan. Covering the period from 2013Q4 to 2024Q2, the study represents economic growth with real GDP (LRGDP) and Islamic banking activities with total assets (LTA) and profit-sharing investment accounts (LPSIA), while the consumer price index (LCPI) is used as a control variable. The relationships among the variables are analyzed using the Augmented Autoregressive Distributed Lag (A-ARDL) method. The findings indicate that in the long run, profit sharing investment accounts have a positive and significant effect on economic growth (coefficient: 1.2249, p<0.01), whereas inflation negatively affects growth (coefficient: -1.2968, p<0.01). The long run effect of Islamic banking total assets is not statistically significant. In the short run, fluctuating interactions among the variables are identified, and the error correction mechanism operates effectively (ECT = -0.4163, p<0.01). The study reveals that Islamic banking supports economic growth in Afghanistan, particularly through the channel of profit-sharing investment accounts, and highlights the importance of price stability and institutional reforms.

Keywords

• Islamic Banking
• Profit-Sharing Investment Accounts
• Economic Growth
• Afghanistan
• A-ARDL

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