Türkiye’de Yük Kapasite Faktörünün Belirleyicileri Nelerdir? Genişletilmiş ARDL Yaklaşımı

Year 2024, Volume: 20 Issue: 2, 299 - 312, 30.12.2024

Nimet Melis Esenyel İçen

Abstract

Sürdürülebilir kalkınma ve çevresel baskının azaltılması, gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkelerin ortak sorunudur. Araştırmacılar çevresel bozulma ve kirlilik kapsamında karbondioksit ile kükürtdioksit emisyonları ve ekolojik ayak izini sıklıkla çevresel bozulma göstergesi olarak kullansalar da çevresel sürdürülebilirliğin değerlendirilmesi için daha kapsamlı bir ekolojik göstergeye ihtiyaç duyulmaktadır. Bu kapsamda, ekolojik ayak izinin içinde biyolojik kapasitenin payı olarak hesaplanan yük kapasite faktörü, çevresel sürdürülebilirliğin daha kapsamlı bir şekilde değerlendirilmesine olanak sağlamaktadır. Çalışmada Türkiye için yük kapasite faktörünün belirleyicilerinin ortaya konulması amaçlanmaktadır. Bu amaçla 1980-2021 yılları arası dönemde gayrisafi yurtiçi hasıla, ticari açıklık, yenilenebilir ve yenilenebilir olmayan enerji tüketimi değişkenleri yıllık frekansta ele alınmıştır. Bu değişkenlerin yük kapasite faktörü üzerindeki etkisinin belirlenmesi için Genişletilmiş Otoregresif Dağıtılmış Gecikmeli model (AARDL) yaklaşımı kullanılmıştır ve değişkenler arasındaki uzun ve kısa dönemli ilişki araştırılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgulara göre, ele alınan değişkenler ile yük kapasite faktörü arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişki olduğu görülmüştür. Bununla birlikte çalışmada Yük Kapasite Eğrisi (Load Capacity Curve-LCC) hipotezinin geçerliliğinin araştırılması için Narayan ve Narayan (2010) tarafından önerilen doğrusal yaklaşım kullanılmıştır. Buna göre, uzun ve kısa dönem gelir esnekliği incelendiğinde, Türkiye için ele alınan dönemde, LCC hipotezinin geçerli olduğu söylenebilir.

Keywords

Ekolojik ayak izi, Yük kapasite faktörü, Enerji tüketimi, Ekonomik büyüme, Genişletilmiş ARDL

What are the Determinants of Load Capacity Factor in Turkiye? Augmented ARDL Test Approach

Abstract

Sustainable development and the reduction of environmental pressure are common concerns for both developed and developing countries. Researchers often use carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide emissions, as well as ecological footprint, as indicators of environmental degradation and pollution. However, a more comprehensive ecological indicator is needed to assess environmental sustainability. In this context, the load capacity factor, calculated as the share of biological capacity within the ecological footprint, enables a more comprehensive evaluation of environmental sustainability. This study aims to identify the determinants of the load capacity factor for Turkiye. For this purpose, gross domestic product, trade openness, renewable and non-renewable energy consumption have been analyzed annually from 1980 to 2021. The Augmented Autoregressive Distributed Lag (AARDL) model approach has been used to determine the effect of these variables on the load capacity factor and investigate the long and short-term relationships between the variables. The findings reveal cointegration relationship between the variables and the load capacity factor. Furthermore, to investigate the validity of the Load Capacity Curve (LCC) hypothesis, a linear approach proposed by Narayan and Narayan (2010) has been used. When examining long and short-term income elasticity, it can be stated that the LCC hypothesis is valid for Turkiye during the period considered.

Keywords

Ecological footprint, Load capacity factor, Energy consumption, Economic growth, Augmented ARDL

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