Otoriter Rejimlerde Eşiksel Çöküş Dinamikleri: Jenga Metaforu Temelli Bir Kavramsal Çerçeve

Abstract

Bu çalışma, siyasal rejimlerin çöküşünü açıklamak amacıyla Jenga oyununu analitik bir metafor olarak önermektedir. Jenga modelinde yapı, bloklar arasındaki dengenin korunmasıyla ayakta kalmakta; ancak birikimli zayıflama belirli bir eşik aşıldığında ani ve geri döndürülemez bir çöküşe yol açmaktadır. Bu çalışmada siyasal sistemler, zor kapasitesi (alt blok), elit koordinasyonu (orta blok) ve normatif meşruiyet (üst blok) olmak üzere üç temel boyut üzerinden kavramsallaştırılmaktadır. Eşik ve kırılma noktası teorilerinden hareketle, rejim çöküşünün tekil bir olaydan ziyade birikimli yapısal aşınmanın sonucu olduğu ileri sürülmektedir. Yugoslavya, Sovyetler Birliği ve İran örnekleri üzerinden yapılan analizler, bu boyutlar arasındaki dengenin bozulmasının sistemik kırılmaya yol açtığını göstermektedir. Çalışma, siyasal sistemlerin uzun süre istikrarlı görünebilmesine rağmen belirli eşikler aşıldığında hızlı biçimde çözülebileceğini ortaya koymaktadır.

Keywords

• Siyasal çöküş
• rejim çözülmesi
• Jenga metaforu
• devlet kapasitesi
• meşruiyet
• elit koordinasyonu
• otoriter dayanıklılık
• siyasal kırılganlık
• eşik modelleri

Threshold Dynamics of Regime Collapse in Authoritarian Systems: A Conceptual Framework Based on the Jenga Metaphor

Abstract

This study proposes the Jenga game as an analytical metaphor for explaining the collapse of political regimes. In the Jenga model, a structure remains standing as long as the balance among its blocks is maintained; however, cumulative weakening eventually leads to a sudden and irreversible collapse once a critical threshold is crossed. Building on this logic, the study conceptualizes political systems through three interdependent dimensions: coercive capacity (lower block), elite coordination (middle block), and normative legitimacy (upper block). Drawing on threshold and tipping point theories, the article argues that regime collapse is not the result of a single event but rather the outcome of accumulated structural erosion. The empirical sections analyze Yugoslavia, the Soviet Union, and Iran to demonstrate how imbalances across these dimensions produce systemic breakdown. The findings suggest that political systems may appear stable for long periods, yet underlying vulnerabilities can lead to rapid collapse once critical thresholds are exceeded. The Jenga metaphor thus provides a useful framework for understanding the nonlinear dynamics of political fragility and regime breakdown.

Keywords

• Political collapse
• regime breakdown
• Jenga metaphor
• state capacity
• legitimacy
• elite coordination
• authoritarian resilience
• political fragility
• threshold models

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