TÜRKİYE’NİN KÜRESEL FİNANSAL KRİZE MAKRO EKONOMİK TEPKİSİ: AMPİRİK BİR UYGULAMA

Abstract

2008 yılı son çeyreğinde hemen tüm dünyayı etkisi altına alan küresel finans krizi, uluslararası piyasalarda ciddi bir durgunluğa neden olmuştur. Krizin etkileri krizin baş gösterdiği Amerika Birleşik Devletleri (ABD) başta olmak üzere birçok gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkede olduğu gibi Türkiye’de de hissedilmiştir. Bu çalışmada 2008 küresel finans krizinin Türkiye’ye yansımaları makro iktisadi bir bakış açısı ile ele alınmıştır. Bu bağlamda, öncelikle kamu ve özel sektörün dış borç stoku, borsa endeksi, döviz kuru, Brent petrol fiyatı, ithalat, ihracat, cari işlemler dengesi, kısa ve uzun vadeli yabancı sermaye yatırımları ve GSYH büyümesinin gelişimi incelenmiştir. Ardından da, Borsa İstanbul Ulusal 100 endeksi (bist), faiz oranı (faiz), ihracat (ihr) ve Amerikan Doları (usd) göstergelerinin ekonomik büyüme (gdp) ile etkileşimi ampirik analizler ile sorgulanmıştır. Çalışmadan elde edilen bulgulara göre, Borsa İstanbul Ulusal 100 endeksi orta ve uzun dönemde, faiz oranı kısa ve orta dönemde, ihracat ise orta ve uzun dönemde ekonomik büyümeye neden olmaktadır. Ekonomik büyüme ise, kısa dönemde ihracatın nedenidir.

Keywords

• Küresel Finans Krizi,Türkiye Ekonomisi,Lee-Strazicich,Frequency Domain Nedensellik Testi

THE MACROECONOMIC REACTION OF TURKEY TO GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS: AN EMPIRICAL APPLICATION

Abstract

Global financial crisis has been affected the whole world in the last quarter of 2008, has led to a severe recession in the international markets. Crisis effects started in the USA and has affected many developed and developing countries, including Turkey. In this study, the effects of 2008 global financial crisis on Turkey were examined with macro- economic respects. In this context, primarily the public and private sector external debt stock, stock indexes, foreign exchange, Brent oil prices, imports, exports, current account balance, short-and long -term foreign capital investment and GDP growth are analyzed. Then, examined the interaction between Istanbul Stock Exchange National 100 Index (bist), interest rates (faiz), export (ihr) and U.S. Dollars (usd) indicators with economic growth (gdp) via empirical methods. According to the findings of the study, Istanbul Stock Exchange National 100 index in the medium and long-term, interest rates in the short and medium term, exports in the medium and long-term causes on the economic growth. In addition to these findings, economic growth cause export in the short term.

Keywords

• Global Financial Crisis,Turkish Economy,Lee-Strazicich,Frequency Domain Casuality Test

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