Türkiye'nin İhracatının İthalata Bağımlılığının Analizi: Sektörel Bir Yaklaşım

Abstract

İhracatın ithalata bağımlılığının yüksek olması, ihracata dayalı büyüme stratejisi izleyen ekonomiler için önemli bir dış kırılganlık nedenidir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, ihracata dayalı büyüme modelini benimseyen Türkiye için ihracatın ithalata bağımlılığını analiz etmek ve ihracatın ithalata bağımlılığının azaltılmasına katkıda bulunacak sektörleri belirlemektir. Bu çalışma, ISIC Rev.4 sınıflandırması ve durum uzayı modelini kullanarak Ocak 2013'ten Ocak 2024'e kadar Türkiye'nin ihracatının zamanla değişen ithalat bağımlılığını araştırmaktadır. Bulgular, 2013 yılı başından Eylül 2019'a kadar ihracatın ithalata bağımlılığı azalma eğilimindeyken, bu tarihten sonra bu eğilimin tersine döndüğünü ve ihracatın ithalata bağımlılığının hızla artmaya başladığını ortaya koymaktadır. İhracatın potansiyelinden sapmasındaki yüzde birlik bir artış, ihracatın ithalata bağımlılığını ortalama %0,65 oranında artırmaktadır. İhracatın ithalata bağımlılığının en yüksek olduğu durum İmalat sektöründe görülmektedir. İmalat alt sektörleri incelendiğinde, Tekstil, Giyim Eşyası ve Ana Metaller en yüksek bağımlılık artışını gösterirken, İçecekler, Tütün Ürünleri ve Kayıtlı Medyanın Basılması ve Çoğaltılması alt sektörleri en düşük bağımlılık artışını sergilemektedir. Bu açıdan bakıldığında, ihracatın ithalata bağımlılığını azaltmak için ihracat potansiyelinin artırılması, potansiyelden sapmaların azaltılması ve yerli sanayi yapısıyla dikey entegrasyonun teşvik edilmesi gibi politikaların yanı sıra özellikle ithalata bağımlılığın yüksek olduğu sektörlerde yerli ara malı kullanımını teşvik edecek vergi avantajlarının sağlanması önerilebilir. Ayrıca, yurt içinde üretilen ara malı ve sermaye mallarının kullanılmasına olanak sağlayan teknolojik yenilikler de ithalat bağımlılığının azaltılmasında kalıcı etkiler yaratabilir.

Keywords

• İhracatın İthalata Bağımlılığı
• Zamanla Değişen Analiz
• Kalman Filtresi

Analyzing Türkiye’s Import Dependency of Exports: A Sectoral Approach

Abstract

The high import dependency of exports is an important cause of external vulnerability for economies pursuing an export-led growth strategy. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the import dependency of exports in Türkiye, which adopts the export-led growth model, and to identify the sectors that will contribute to reducing the import dependency of exports. This study investigates Türkye’s time-varying import dependency of exports from January 2013 to January 2024 using ISIC Rev.4 classification and state space model. The findings reveal that while the import dependency of exports was on a downward trend from early 2013 until September 2019, this trend reversed after this date and the import dependency of exports started to increase rapidly. A one percentage increase in the deviation of exports from their potential increases the import dependency of exports by 0.65% on average. The highest import dependence of exports is observed in the Manufacturing sector. When examining manufacturing sub-sectors, Textile, Wearing Apparel and Basic Metals show the highest dependency increase, while Beverages, Tobacco Products and Printing & Reproduction of Recorded Media sub-sectors exhibit the lowest. From this point of view, in order to reduce the import dependency of exports, policies such as increasing export potential, reducing deviations from potential and encouraging vertical integration with the domestic industrial structure, as well as providing tax advantages to encourage the use of domestic intermediate goods especially in sectors with high import dependency can be recommended. Furthermore, technological innovations that allow using domestically produced intermediate goods and capital goods also may create permanent effects on decreasing import dependency.

Keywords

• Import Dependency of Exports
• Time-Varying Analysis
• Kalman Filter

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