Analyzing Türkiye’s Import Dependency of Exports: A Sectoral Approach

Yıl 2024, , 807 - 824, 24.05.2024

Serdar Varlık , Nurhan Hande Sevgi , Hakan Berument

https://doi.org/10.25295/fsecon.1448406

Öz

The high import dependency of exports is an important cause of external vulnerability for economies pursuing an export-led growth strategy. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the import dependency of exports in Türkiye, which adopts the export-led growth model, and to identify the sectors that will contribute to reducing the import dependency of exports. This study investigates Türkye’s time-varying import dependency of exports from January 2013 to January 2024 using ISIC Rev.4 classification and state space model. The findings reveal that while the import dependency of exports was on a downward trend from early 2013 until September 2019, this trend reversed after this date and the import dependency of exports started to increase rapidly. A one percentage increase in the deviation of exports from their potential increases the import dependency of exports by 0.65% on average. The highest import dependence of exports is observed in the Manufacturing sector. When examining manufacturing sub-sectors, Textile, Wearing Apparel and Basic Metals show the highest dependency increase, while Beverages, Tobacco Products and Printing & Reproduction of Recorded Media sub-sectors exhibit the lowest. From this point of view, in order to reduce the import dependency of exports, policies such as increasing export potential, reducing deviations from potential and encouraging vertical integration with the domestic industrial structure, as well as providing tax advantages to encourage the use of domestic intermediate goods especially in sectors with high import dependency can be recommended. Furthermore, technological innovations that allow using domestically produced intermediate goods and capital goods also may create permanent effects on decreasing import dependency.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Import Dependency of Exports, Time-Varying Analysis, Kalman Filter

Türkiye'nin İhracatının İthalata Bağımlılığının Analizi: Sektörel Bir Yaklaşım

Öz

İhracatın ithalata bağımlılığının yüksek olması, ihracata dayalı büyüme stratejisi izleyen ekonomiler için önemli bir dış kırılganlık nedenidir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, ihracata dayalı büyüme modelini benimseyen Türkiye için ihracatın ithalata bağımlılığını analiz etmek ve ihracatın ithalata bağımlılığının azaltılmasına katkıda bulunacak sektörleri belirlemektir. Bu çalışma, ISIC Rev.4 sınıflandırması ve durum uzayı modelini kullanarak Ocak 2013'ten Ocak 2024'e kadar Türkiye'nin ihracatının zamanla değişen ithalat bağımlılığını araştırmaktadır. Bulgular, 2013 yılı başından Eylül 2019'a kadar ihracatın ithalata bağımlılığı azalma eğilimindeyken, bu tarihten sonra bu eğilimin tersine döndüğünü ve ihracatın ithalata bağımlılığının hızla artmaya başladığını ortaya koymaktadır. İhracatın potansiyelinden sapmasındaki yüzde birlik bir artış, ihracatın ithalata bağımlılığını ortalama %0,65 oranında artırmaktadır. İhracatın ithalata bağımlılığının en yüksek olduğu durum İmalat sektöründe görülmektedir. İmalat alt sektörleri incelendiğinde, Tekstil, Giyim Eşyası ve Ana Metaller en yüksek bağımlılık artışını gösterirken, İçecekler, Tütün Ürünleri ve Kayıtlı Medyanın Basılması ve Çoğaltılması alt sektörleri en düşük bağımlılık artışını sergilemektedir. Bu açıdan bakıldığında, ihracatın ithalata bağımlılığını azaltmak için ihracat potansiyelinin artırılması, potansiyelden sapmaların azaltılması ve yerli sanayi yapısıyla dikey entegrasyonun teşvik edilmesi gibi politikaların yanı sıra özellikle ithalata bağımlılığın yüksek olduğu sektörlerde yerli ara malı kullanımını teşvik edecek vergi avantajlarının sağlanması önerilebilir. Ayrıca, yurt içinde üretilen ara malı ve sermaye mallarının kullanılmasına olanak sağlayan teknolojik yenilikler de ithalat bağımlılığının azaltılmasında kalıcı etkiler yaratabilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

İhracatın İthalata Bağımlılığı, Zamanla Değişen Analiz, Kalman Filtresi

Kaynakça

• Akbaş, Y. E. and Şentürk, M. (2013). Dependency of Import and Export of Turkey: An Empirical Application for Selected Countries (in Turkish), Ege Academic Review, 13(2), 195-208.
• Alam, M. I. (2003). Manufactured Exports, Capital Good Imports, and Economic Growth: Experience of Mexico and Brazil, International Economic Journal, 17(4), 85-105.
• Amador, J., and Cabral, S. (2009). Vertical Specialization Across the World: A Relative Measure, The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 20(3), 267–280.
• Arize, A.C. (2002). Imports and Exports in 50 Countries: Tests of Cointegration and Structural Breaks, International Review of Economics & Finance, 11(1), 101-115.
• Aydın, M. F., Başkaya, Y. S., and Demiroğlu, U. (2015). An Empirical Analysis on the Export/Import Coverage Ratio in Turkey (in Turkish), Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, 30(354), 09-28.
• Aydın, F., Saygılı, H., Saygılı, M., and Yılmaz, G. (2010). Global trends in foreign trade and the Turkish economy (in Turkish), Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, Ankara.
• Aydoğuş, O., Değer, Ç., Çalışkan, E. T. and Günal, G. G. (2015). Import Dependency in Turkey: An Input-Output Analysis, Ege University Working Papers, 2015(5).
• Babatunde, M. A. (2014). Are Exports and Imports Cointegrated? Evidence from Nigeria, Journal of International and Global Economic Studies, 7(2), 45-67.
• Bakari, S. and Mabrouki, M. (2017). Impact of Exports and Imports on Economic Growth: New Evidence from Panama, Journal of Smart Economic Growth, 2(1), 67-79.
• Bravo, A. C. and Álvarez, M. T. (2012). The Import Content of the Industrial Sectors in Spain, Economic Bulletin/Banco de España, 81-92.
• Breda, E., Cappariello, R. and Zizza, R. (2008). Vertical Specialization in Europe: Evidence from the Import Content of Exports, Banca D’Italia Working Papers, 682.
• Casero, A. P. and Astarloa, B. D. (2010). Estimating the Import Content of Argentine Exports, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, (5225).
• Cuihong, Y. and Jiansuo, P. (2007). Import Dependency of Foreign Trade: A Case of China. The 16th International Conference on Input-Output Techniques, Istanbul, Turkey.
• Dikici, Z. Y. A. (2020). Türkiye’de ihracatın ithalat bağımlılığı: Tekstil sektörü üzerine bir değerlendirme, Bursa Uludağ Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Yüksek Lisans Tezi.
• Dineri, E. and Işık, N. (2021). Import Dependence and Manufacturing Industry in Turkish Economy: Hatemi-J Asymmetric Causality Test (in Turkish), Gazi İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi, 7(1), 68-82.
• Duman, A. and Özgüzer, G. E. (2013). An Input-Output Analysis of Rising Imports in Turkey, Ekonomik Yaklasım, 23(84), 39-39.
• Erduman, Y., Eren, O. and Gül, S. (2020). Import Content of Turkish Production and Exports: A Sectoral Analysis, Central Bank Review, 20(4), 155-168.
• Ersungur, Ş. and Kızıltan, A. M. (2007). Analysis of Import Dependence in Turkish Economy by Input-Output Method (in Turkish), Atatürk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 9(1), 267-278.
• Ersungur, Ş. M., Ekinci, E. D. and Takım, A. (2011). The Change in Import Dependence in the Turkish Economy: An Application with Input-Output Approach (in Turkish), Atatürk Ü. İİBF Dergisi, 10. Ekonometri ve İstatistik Sempozyumu Özel Sayısı.
• Feng, L., Li, Z. and Swenson, D. L. (2016). The Connection Between Imported Intermediate Inputs and Exports: Evidence from Chinese Firms, Journal of International Economics, 101, 86-101.
• Hamilton, J. D. (1994). Time Series Analysis. Princeton University Press, New Jersey.
• Harvey, A. C. (1990). Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter Cambridge University Press, New York.
• Hummels, D., Ishii, J. and Yi, K. M. (2001). The Nature and Growth of Vertical Specialization in World Trade, Journal of International Economics, 54(1), 75–96.
• İnançlı, S. and Konak, A. (2011). Import dependence of exports in Turkey: The automotive sector (in Turkish). Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 6(2), 343‐362.
• Irandoust, M. and Ericsson, J. (2004). Are Imports and Exports Cointegrated? An International Comparison, Metroeconomica, 55(1), 49-64.
• Islam, F., Adnan Hye, Q. M. and Shahbaz, M. (2012). Import‐economic Erowth Nexus: ARDL Approach to Cointegration, Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies, 5(3), 194-214.
• Kalman, R. E. (1960). A New Approach To Linear Filtering And Prediction Problems. Transactions Of The ASMA-Journal Of Basic Engineering, 82, 35–45.
• Karabulut, Ş. (2020). The Impact of Imports on Exports of Turkey, Journal of Management and Economics Research, 18(1), 76-90.
• Knuuttila, M., Vatanen, E., Niemi1, J. and Csaba J. (2014). Import Dependency of Food Production. EAAE 2014 Congress, Ljubljana, Slovenia.
• Konya, L. and Singh, J. P. (2008). Are Indian Exports and Imports Cointegrated? Applied Econometrics and International Development, 8(2).
• Kundak, S. and Aydoğuş, İ. (2018). Analysis of The Turkish Manufacturing Industry’s Dependence on Imports (in Turkish), Gaziantep University Journal Of Social Sciences, 17(1).
• Kurt, O. E. (2023). Import Dependence of Exports, Aggregate Demand and Income Distribution in the Turkish Economy: A Post-Keynesian Econometric Analysis, İzmir İktisat Dergisi, 38(4), 1011-1028.
• Loschky, A. and Ritter, L. (2007). Import Content of Exports. The 16th International Conference on Input-Output Techniques, Istanbul, Turkey.
• Marwah, K. and Tavakoli, A. (2004). The Effect of Foreign Capital and Imports on Economic Growth: Further Evidence from Four Asian Countries (1970–1998), Journal of Asian Economics, 15(2), 399-413.
• Nas, Ş. (2021), The Dependency of Import Intermediate Inputs of Sectoral Productıon in Turkish Economy (in Turkish), Erzincan Binali Yıldırım Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 3(1), 22-38.
• Özlale, Ü. and Karakurt, A. (2012). Causes of the Savings Gap in Turkey and Policy Recommendations to Close it (in Turkish), Türkiye Bankalar Birliği Bankacılar Dergisi, 1-34.
• Saygılı, Ş., Cihan, C., Yalcin, C. and Brand, T. H. (2014). The Sources of the Rise in the Import Content of Production in the Turkish Manufacturing Industry (in Turkish), Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, 29(342), 09-44.
• Saygılı, H. and Saygılı, M. (2011). Structural Changes in Exports Of An Emerging Economy: Case of Turkey, Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 22(4), 342-360.
• Saygılı, Ş., Cihan, C., Yalçın, C. and Hamsici, T. (2010). Import Structure of Turkish Manufacturing Industry (in Turkish), Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası Çalışma Tebliği, 10(02), 1-142.
• Senesen G.G. and Senesen, U. (2010) Reconsidering Import Dependency in Turkey: The Breakdown Of Sectoral Demands With Respect To Suppliers, Economic Systems Research, 13(4), 417-428.
• Senesen, G. G. and Senesen, U. (2003) Import Dependency of Production in Turkey: Structural Change From 1970’s to 1990’s. Tenth Annual Conference of the Economic Research Forum (ERF), 16-18.
• Şişman, M., Yamak, T. and Ertuğrul, M. (2004). Competitiveness of Turkey: Manufacturing Industry, Exports and Capital Movements (Arbitrage) (in Turkish), Marmara Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 19(1), 91-119.
• Tok, E. O. and Sevinc, O. (2019). Imported Input Intensity of Production: Input-Output Analysis (in Turkish). Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of The Republic of Turkey, No.1906.
• TUSIAD. (2016). Industry 4.0 as a Requirement for Turkey’s Global Competitiveness: An Emerging Economy Perspective (in Turkish). TÜSİAD-T/2016-03/576.
• Türkiye Exporters Assembly (2022), Export 2022 Report (in Turkish)
• Ünal, E. (2020). Import Dependency on Intermediate Goods in Turkey: An Input-Output Analysis, Verimlilik Dergisi, (4), 203-221.
• Yıldırım, E. and Kesihoğlu, F. (2012). Dependence of Import-Export-Exchange Rate: Application of Bootstrap-Corrected Causality Test (in Turkish), Ege Academic Review, 12(2), 137-148.
• Yükseler Z. and Türkan, E. (2008). Transformation in Turkey's Production and Foreign Trade Structure: Global Trends and Reflections (in Turkish). TUSIAD Report, (02-453)