Türkiye Küresel Değer Zincirlerine Katılımın Belirleyicileri: Türkiye Örneği

Öz

Bu makalenin amacı, 2006-2020 döneminde üretim, madencilik ve hizmet olmak üzere 34 sektöre ait verileri kullanarak Türkiye’nin Küresel Değer Zincirlerine (KDZ) katılımının belirleyicilerini tespit etmektir. Bunu amaç doğrultusunda, tahminlerde Genişletilmiş Ortalama Grup (AMG), Sistem Genelleştirilmiş Momentler Yöntemi (Sistem GMM) ve Sabit Etkiler (FE) yöntemleri kullanılmıştır. Tahmin sonuçlarımız, Yabancı Doğrudan Yatırım’ın (FDI) Türkiye’nin geriye dönük, ileriye dönük ve toplam KDZ katılımını artıran temel belirleyicilerden biri olduğunu göstermektedir. Tarife oranındaki bir artış, geriye dönük ve toplam katılımı azaltarak Türkiye’nin KDZ’lere entegrasyonunu olumsuz etkilemektedir. Öte yandan, Türkiye’de işgücü maliyetlerindeki bir artış hem ileriye dönük hem de toplam katılım üzerinde olumsuz bir etkiye sahipken geriye dönük katılımda bir artışa yol açmaktadır. Tahmin sonuçlarımız ayrıca geriye dönük GVC katılımının özellikle sermaye yoğun sektörlerde belirgin olduğunu göstermektedir. Öte yandan, sektörel reel döviz kurunun, vasıflı ve vasıfsız işgücünün önemi, KDZ entegrasyonunu gösteren farklı göstergeler arasında değişiklik gösterse de bu değişkenler Türkiye’nin KDZ’lere toplam katılımının temel belirleyicileri değildir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Küresel Değer Zinciri
• KDZ
• KDZ‘nin Belirleyicileri
• Panel Data Analizi

Determinants of Participation in Global Value Chains: The Case of Türkiye

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to identify the determinants of Türkiye’s participation in Global Value Chains (GVCs) by using data for 34 manufacturing, mining, and service sectors over the period 2006 to 2020. To achieve this, Augmented Mean Group (AMG), System Generalized Method of Moments (System GMM), and Fixed Effects (FE) methods are employed in the estimations. Our estimation results indicate that Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is one of the key determinants that enhances Türkiye’s backward, forward, and total GVCs participation. An increase in the tariff rate reduces Türkiye’s integration into GVCs by decreasing backward as well as total participation. On the other hand, an increase in labor costs in Türkiye leads to a rise in backward GVC participation while having a detrimental effect on both forward and total participation. Our estimation results also suggest that backward GVC participation is particularly prominent in capital-intensive sectors. On the other hand, although the importance of sectoral real exchange rates and skilled and unskilled labor varies across different indicators of GVC integration, these variables are not the primary determinants for Türkiye’s total participation in GVCs.

Keywords

• Global Value Chains
• GVCs
• Determinants of Participation in GVCs
• Panel Data Analysis

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