YAPAY SİNİR AĞLARI İLE TÜRKİYE NET ENERJİ TALEP TAHMİNİ

Yıl 2014, Cilt: 29 Sayı: 3, 0 - , 30.09.2014

Hüseyin Es , F. Yeşim Kalender , Coşkun Hamzaçebi

https://doi.org/10.17341/gummfd.41725

Cited By: 27

Öz

Bu çalışmada, yapay sinir ağları (YSA) ile Türkiye net enerji talebi tahmin edilmiştir. Türkiye net enerji talebini tahmin etmek için 1970-2010 yılları arasındaki Gayri Safi Yurtiçi Hâsıla (GSYH) , nüfus, ithalat, ihracat, bina yüz ölçümü ve taşıt sayısı değişken verileri YSA modelinin girdisi olarak kullanılmıştır. Kurulan YSA modelinin tahmin performansı, çoklu doğrusal regresyon tekniği ile karşılaştırmalı olarak ortaya konmuştur. Yapılan karşılaştırmalar, YSA’nın üstünlüğünü göstermektedir. Kabul edilebilir ve yüksek doğruluktaki YSA modeli ile 2011-2025 yılları arası Türkiye net enerji talebi tahmin edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

YSA, Enerji, Çoklu doğrusal regresyon

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