The Role of Thinking in Evaluating Knowledge: Intelligence Analysis and Critical Thinking

Year 2025, Volume: 27 Issue: 1, 95 - 122, 30.06.2025

Hasan Gül

https://doi.org/10.54627/gcd.1590752

Abstract

Intelligence analysis has a cycle with its own characteristics that ends with the production of high-quality outputs by processing the data obtained in order to meet the requests of decision makers. This cycle can be operational with the beginning of the thinking process. Therefore, it would not be wrong to say that intelligence analysis consists of a thinking process from the first stage to the last stage. The thinking process in intelligence analysis begins when the requests of decision makers reach the intelligence analyst. The quality of this thinking process depends on the intelligence analyst’s critical thinking skills. Critical thinking skills are used to evaluate the information that is expected to be uncovered. In this context, critical thinking is at the core of intelligence analysis. Developing critical thinking skills for the intelligence analyst is directly related to the quality of the product that the intelligence analyst is expected to disseminate. In this regard, the aim of the study is to reveal the effect and importance of critical thinking in the intelligence analysis by examining the relationship between the quality of the intelligence product and thinking skills. This study argues that intelligence analysis is fundamentally a thinking process and that critical thinking is among the most important skills that the intelligence analyst should develop.

Keywords

Intelligence, Intelligence Analysis, Intelligence Analysts, Thinking, Critical Thinking

Bilginin Kıymetlendirilmesinde Düşünmenin Rolü: İstihbarat Analizi ve Eleştirel Düşünme

Abstract

İstihbarat analizi, karar alıcıların isteklerinin karşılanması amacıyla elde edilen verilerin işlenerek nitelikli ürünlerin ortaya koyulmasıyla son bulan ve kendine has özellikleri olan bir döngüye sahiptir. Bu döngü, düşünme sürecinin başlamasıyla işler hâle gelebilmektedir. Dolayısıyla, istihbarat analizinin, ilk aşamasından son aşamasına kadar düşünme sürecinden oluştuğunu söylemek yanlış olmayacaktır. İstihbarat analizinde düşünme süreci, karar alıcıların isteklerinin istihbarat analizcisine ulaşmasıyla birlikte başlamaktadır. Söz konusu düşünme sürecini nitelikli kılan unsur da istihbarat analizcisinin eleştirel düşünme becerisine bağlıdır. Ortaya konulması beklenen bilginin kıymetlendirilmesinde eleştirel düşünme becerisinden istifade edilmektedir. Bu bağlamda, istihbarat analizinin odağında eleştirel düşünme yer almaktadır. İstihbarat analizcisinin eleştirel düşünme becerilerini geliştirmesi, istihbarat analizcisinin ortaya koyacağı ürünün kalitesi ile doğrudan ilişkilidir. Bu meyanda, makalenin amacı istihbarat ürününün kalitesi ve düşünme becerisi arasındaki ilişkinin ortaya konularak eleştirel düşünmenin istihbarat analizinizdeki etkisini ve önemini gözler önüne sermektir. Dolayısıyla, bu çalışmada istihbarat analizinin bir düşünme süreci olduğu bu bağlamda eleştirel düşünmenin de istihbarat analizcisinin geliştirmesi gereken en önemli becerileri arasında yer aldığı fikri savunulmaktadır.

Keywords

İstihbarat, İstihbarat Analizi, İstihbarat Analizcisi, Düşünme, Eleştirel Düşünme

References

• Acar, Ü. (2016). Polisin İstihbarata Yaklaşımı. S. Yılmaz (Ed.), Dünyayı Yöneten Güç: İstihbarat Bilimi içinde (155-172), Ankara: Kripto Yayınları.
• Bal, A. ve Erkeç, E. (2016). İstihbarat Analizinde Karşılaşılan Sorunlar. S. Yılmaz (Ed.), Dünyayı Yöneten Güç: İstihbarat Bilimi içinde (179-218), Ankara: Kripto yayınları.
• Barbara, S. A. (2011). Individual Reasoning. Baruch and Chauvin, Cherie (Ed.), Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations içinde (117-142), Washington: The National Academies Press.
• Baron, J. (2008). Thinking and Deciding. Fourth Edition. New York: Cambridge University Press.
• Bruce, J. B. ve George, R. Z. (2008). Intelligence Analysis-The Emergence of a Discipline. Analyzing Intelligence: Origins, Obstacles, and Innovations içinde (1-15), Washington: George Town University Press.
• Clauser, K. J. ve Sandra, M. Weir, M. S. (1975). Intelligence Research Methodologies an Introduction to Techniques and Procedures for Conducting Research in Defense Intelligence. Washington DC.: Defense Intelligence School.
• Collier, W. M. (2023). Security Analysis: A Critical Thinking Approach, Encompass Digital Archive, Eastern Kentucky University Libraries, Richmond, Kentucky.
• Davis, J. (2002). Improving CIA Analytic Performance: Analysts and the Policymaking Process. Sherman Kent Center for Intelligence Analysis Occasional Papers. 1 (2), 1-9.
• Deacon, W. T. (1997). The Symbolic Species: The Co-Evolution of Language and The Brain. London: W.W. Norton Company Ltd.
• Elder L. ve Paul, R. (2007). The Thinker’s Guide Analytic Thinking: How to Take Thinking Apart and What to Look for When You Do. California: The Foundation For Critical Thinking.
• Glaser, E. M. (1941). An Experiment in the Development of Critical Thinking. New York: AMS Press.
• Elder, L. ve Paul,R. (2006). Critical Thinking: Learn The Tools The Best Thinkers Use. New Jersey: Pearson Prentice Hall.
• Fisher, A. (2001). Critical Thinking: An Introduction. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
• Facione, P. A. (2015). Critical Thinking: What It Is and Why It Counts. California: Insight Assessment Press.
• Gill, P., Marrin, S. ve Phythian, M. (2009). Intelligence Theory: Key Questions and Debates. London: Routledge, Taylor and Francis Group.
• Graves, M., Jensen, C. ve Mcelreath, D. H. (2022). Introduction to Intelligence Studies. London: Routledge.
• Harris, H. D. ve Spiker, A. V. (2012). Ergonomics- A System Approach. Nunes, L. I. (Ed.). Critical Thinking Skills for Intelligence Analyses içinde (209-232). London: IntechOpen Limited.
• Halpern, D. F. (2014). Thought And Knowledge: An Introduction To Critical Thinking. London: Pschology Press, Taylor and Francis Group.
• Hall, M.W. ve Citrenbaum, G. (2010). Intelligence Analysis: How To Think In Complex Enviroments, LLC, Santa Barbara, California, Denver, Colorado, Oxford, England: Praeger Security International An Imprint of ABC-CLIO.
• Hedley, H. J. (2008). The Evolution Of Intelligence Analysis. Bruce, B. J., George,Z.R. (Ed.). Analyzing Intelligence:Origins, Obstacle And Innovations içinde (19-35). Washington: George Town University Press.
• Heuer, R. J. (1999). Psychology of intelligence analysis. Washington: Center for the Study of Intelligence.
• Hoffman, R., Henderson, S. Moon, B. More, T. D. ve Litman, A. J. (2011). Reasoning difficulty in analytical activity. Theoritical Issues in Ergonomics Science. 12 (3), 225-240.
• Johnson, K. L. (1996). Analysis For A New Age. Intelligence and National Security. 11 (4), 657- 671.
• Kent, S. (1949). Strategic Intelligence for American World Policy. New Jersey: Princeton University Press.
• Kilroy Jr. ve Brooks, K. (2018). Strategic Warning and Anticipating Surprise: Assessing the Education and Training of Intelligence Analysts. Global Security and Intelligence Studies. 3(1), 33-57.
• Martin, I. ve Dan-Şuteu, A. (2016). Trends And Challenges In Intelligence Education and Training. De Gruyter International Conference Knowledge-Based Organization. XXII (1), 78-86.
• McDowell, D. (1998). Strategic Intelligence: A Handbook for Practitioners, Managers, and Users. Australia: Istana Enterprises, Pty. Ltd., Cooma
• Moore, T. D. ve Krizan, L. (2003). Core Competencies for Intelligence Analysis at the National Security Agency. R.G.Swenson (Ed.). Bringing Intelligence About Practitioners Reflect On Best Practices içinde (95-132). Washington: The Joint Military Intelligence College.
• Moore, T. D. (2007). Critical Thinking And Intelligence Analysis. Washington: National Defence Intelligence College.
• Obradovic, L. ve Black, M. (2024). Standardization of the Intelligence Aalyst Workforce And Education: Are We There Yet?, Journal of Security, Intelligence, and Resilience Education. 18(8), 1-23.
• Phythian, M. (2009). Intelligence Analysis Today and Tomorrow. Security Challenges. 5(1), 67-83.
• Walsh, F. P. (2021). Intelligence Leadership and Govarnance: Building Effective Intelligence Communities in The 21st Century. New York: Routledge, Taylor And Francis Group.
• Yılmaz, S. (2006). 21.Yüzyılda Güvenlik ve İstihbarat. İstanbul: Milenyum Yayınları.