Devlet kırılganlığı ekonomik büyümeyi etkiler mi? Kırılgan Sekizli ülkeler üzerine ampirik bir çalışma

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 11 Sayı: 1, 47 - 64, 28.02.2025

İlyas Bayar

https://doi.org/10.30855/gjeb.2025.11.1.003

Öz

Ekonomik büyüme, yaşam standartlarını yükseltmek ve refah düzeyini artırmak için hayati bir öneme sahiptir. İktisadi faktörlerin yanı sıra kurumsal faktörler de ekonomik büyümenin belirleyici unsurlarındandır. Mevcut çalışmada devlet kırılganlığının, gayri safi sabit yatırımların ve doğrudan yabancı yatırım girişinin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi Kırılgan Sekizli (Arjantin, Brezilya, Şili, Hindistan, Endonezya, Rusya, Güney Afrika ve Türkiye) ülke grubu için 2006-2022 dönemi yıllık verileri ile incelenmektedir. Çalışmada öncelikle hem modelin hem de serilerin yatay kesit bağımlılığı kontrol edilmiştir. Daha sonra serilerin birim kök sınaması Pesaran (2007) tarafından geliştirilen CADF birim kök testi ile incelenmiştir. Panel ARDL-PMG yöntemi ile seriler arasındaki eşbütünleşme ilişkisi araştırılmıştır. Emirmahmutoğlu-Köse Nedensellik testiyle seriler arasındaki ilişkilerin yönünü belirlenmeye çalışılmıştır. Çalışmadan elde edilen ampirik sonuçlar, devlet kırılganlığındaki %1’lik bir artışın ekonomik büyümeyi yaklaşık %0,15 oranında azalttığını göstermektedir. Söz konusu dönemde gayri safi sabit yatırım ekonomik büyümeyi pozitif, doğrudan yabancı yatırım geliri ekonomik büyümeyi negatif etkilemektedir. Çalışmada ayrıca kırılganlık ile ekonomik büyüme; kırılganlık ve gayri safi sabit yatırımlar arasında çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmuştur. Kırılganlık, yatırım ve ekonomik büyüme ortamını doğrudan etkilediğinden politika yapıcılar politik, sosyal ve ekonomik ortamı düzenleyici güçlü kurumsal yapılar inşa etmelidir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Ekonomik büyüme, devlet kırılganlığı, panel ARDL, nedensellik analizi

Does state fragility affect economic growth? An empirical study on Fragile Eight Countries

Öz

Economic growth is vital for raising living standards and increasing welfare. In addition to economic factors, institutional factors are also determinant elements of economic growth. In the current study, the impact of state fragility, gross fixed investments and foreign direct investment inflows on economic growth is examined with annual data for the period 2006-2022 for the Fragile Eight (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, India, Indonesia, Russia, South Africa and Turkey) country group. In the study, first of all, the cross-sectional dependency of both the model and the series was checked. Then, the unit root test of the series was examined with the CADF unit root test developed by Pesaran (2007). The cointegration relationship between the series was investigated with the Panel ARDL-PMG method. Emirmahmutoğlu-Köse Causality test was used to determine the direction of the relationships between the series. Empirical results from the study show that a 1% increase in state fragility reduces economic growth by approximately 0.15%. In this period, gross fixed investment affects economic growth positively, while foreign direct investment income affects economic growth negatively. The study also found a bidirectional causality relationship between vulnerability and economic growth and between vulnerability and gross fixed investments. Since fragility directly affects the investment and economic growth environment, policymakers must build strong institutional structures that regulate the political, social and economic environment.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Economic growth, state fragility, panel ARDL, causality analysis.

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