Türkiye’de il düzeyinde ekonomik dirençliliğin ölçülmesi: 2000-2019 döneminin analizi

Abstract

Bu çalışma, Türkiye'de illerin son üç ekonomik krizde (2001, 2009, 2018) performanslarını incelemektedir. Bu krizlerin etkileri, kişi başına düşen yıllık ortalama gelir kaybıyla ölçülmektedir. Krizlerin iller üzerindeki olumsuz etkileri, illerin kırılganlık derecesi ile açıklanmaktadır. Kriz öncesi ve sonrası Gayri Safi Yurtiçi Hasıla (GSYH) incelenmiş ve illerdeki yüksek kayıp oranlarına etki eden faktörler araştırılmıştır. Türkiye'de son üç kriz aynı anda değerlendirildiğinde dirençli iller olmadığı, ancak krizlerin yapısına bağlı olarak bazı illerin belirli bir durumda görece daha dayanıklı, bazılarının ise daha kırılgan olduğu tespit edilmiştir. İthalat ve ihracatın GSYH içindeki payları, kredi/GSYH oranı ve uzmanlaşma derecesi (HHI endeksi) illerin üç kriz dönemindeki performanslarında sınırlı etkiye sahip olduğu tespit edilmiştir.

Keywords

• Dirençlilik
• Yerel/Bölgesel Kalkınma
• Ekonomik Kriz

Measuring economic resilience at the provincial level in Turkey: Analysis of the 2000-2019 period

Abstract

This study investigates the performances of provinces in Turkey in the last three economic crises (2001, 2009, 2018). The effects of those crises are measured by annual average income loss per capita. The negative effects of the crises on provinces are explained by the vulnerability degree of provinces. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) before and after the crisis were examined and the factors influencing high rates of losses in provinces are investigated. It is found that there are no resilient provinces in Turkey when all the recent three crises are considered at the same time, but depending on the structure of the crises some provinces are relatively more resilient while some are more fragile in a particular case. It is found that the shares of import and export in GDP, credit/GDP rate and specialization degree (HHI index) has limited influence in the performances of provinces under three crises.

Keywords

• Resilience
• Local/Regional development
• Economic crisis

References

1. Balland, P. A., Suire, R. ve Vicente, J. (2013). Structural and geographical patterns of knowledge networks in emerging tech¬nological standards: evidence from the European GNSS industry, Economics of Innovation and New Technology, 22(1), 47–72.
2. Baron, M., Verner, E. ve Xiong, W. (2019). Salient crises, quiet crises, https://fic.wharton.upenn.edu › uploads › 2019/09.
3. Bathelt, H., Munro, A.K. ve Spigel, B. (2013). Challenges of transformation: Innovation, re-bundling and traditional manufacturing in Canada's technology triangle, Regional Studies, 47(7), 1111-1130.
4. Baycan, T. ve Pinto, H. (Eds.). (2018). Resilience, crisis and innovation dynamics, Edward Elgar Publishing.
5. Berkes, F., Colding, J. ve Folke, C. (Eds.) (2003). Navigating social-ecological systems: Building resilience for complexity and change, Cambridge University Press: New York.
6. Bishop, P. (2019). Knowledge diversity and entrepreneurship following an economic crisis: an empirical study of regional resilience in Great Britain, Entrepreneurship & Regional Development, 31(5-6), 496-515.
7. Borio, C. ve Lowe, P. (2002). Assessing the risk of banking crises, BIS Quarterly Review, 7(1), 43-54.
8. Boschma, R. (2015). Towards an evolutionary perspective on regional resilience, Regional Studies, 49(5), 733-751.

9. Briguglio, L. (2009). Conceptualizing and measuring economic vulnerability and resilience, Paper presented at the Small States and the State Conference, Tallinn, Estonia, 24–25 April 2009. [Google Scholar].
10. Bristow, G. (2010). Resilient regions: re-‘place’ing regional competitiveness, Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, 3(1), 153–167.
11. Canova, F. (1994). Were financial crises predictable? Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 26(1), 102-124.
12. Christopherson, S. (2010). Contextualized comparison in local and regional economic development: Are united states perspectives and approaches distinctive? Regional Studies, 44(2), 229-233.
13. Christopherson, S., Michie, J. ve Tyler, P. (2010). Regional resilience: theoretical and empirical perspectives, Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, 3(1), 3-10.
14. Di Caro, P. (2015). Recessions, recoveries and regional resilience: evidence on Italy, Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, 8(2), 273-291.
15. Eraydın, A. (2013). Bölgesel ekonomik uyum kapasitesi: Türkiye'deki bölgelerin ekonomik krizler ve sonrasındaki başarımlarını belirleyen etkenler, Middle East Technical University Studies in Development, 40(2), 179-208.
16. Eraydın, A. (2014). The importance of endogenous capacities and government support in the resilience of regions, 54th Congress of the European Regional Science Association: "Regional development & globalization: Best practices", 26-29 August 2014, St. Petersburg, Russia.
17. Eraydın, A. (2016a). The role of regional policies along with the external and endogenous factors in the resilience of regions, Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, 9(1), 217-234.
18. Eraydın, A. (2016b). Attributes and characteristics of regional resilience: Defining and measuring the resilience of Turkish regions. Regional Studies, 50(4), 600-614.
19. Eraydın, A. ve Taşan-Kök, T. (2013). Resilience thinking in urban planning, Springer, Dortrecht.
20. Faggian, A., Gemmiti, R., Jaquet, T., ve Santini, I. (2018). Regional economic resilience: The experience of the Italian local labor systems. The Annals of Regional Science, 60(2), 393-410.
21. Feyrer, J., Sacerdote, B., Stern, A., Saiz, A., ve Strange, W. (2007). Did the Rust-Belt become shiny? A study of cities and counties that lost steel and auto jobs in the 1980s [with comments], Brookings-Wharton Papers on Urban Affairs, 41-102. Retrieved June 7, 2021, from http://www.jstor.org/stable/25067440.
22. Fingleton, B., Garretsen, H. ve Martin R. (2012). Recessionary shocks and regional employment: Evidence on the resilience of U.K. regions, Journal of Regional Science, 52(1), 109-133.
23. Folke, C. (2006). Resilience: The emergence of a perspective for social-ecological systems analyses, Global Environmental Change, 16(3), 253-267.
24. Foster, K. A. (2007). Snapping back: What makes regions resilient? National Civic Review, 96(3), 27-29.
25. Giannakis, E., ve Bruggeman, A. (2017). Determinants of regional resilience to economic crisis: A European perspective, European Planning Studies, 25(8), 1394-1415.
26. Harrison, B., Kelley, M. ve Gant, J. (1996). Specialization versus diversity in local economies: The implications for innovative private sector behavior, Cityscape, 2(2), 61-93.
27. Hill, E., Wial, H., Wolman, H., Atkins, P., Blumental, P., Ficenec, S. ve Friedhoff, A. (2011). Economic Shocks and Regional Economic Resilience, in Urban and regional policy and its effects: Building resilient regions, 193-274, Brookings Institution Press.
28. Hill, E.W., Wial, H. ve Wolman, H. (2008).Exploring regional economic resilience, Working Paper, No. 2008,04, University of California, Institute of Urban and Regional Development (IURD), Berkeley, CA.
29. Holling, C.S. (2001). Understanding the complexity of economic, ecological, and social systems, Ecosystems, 4(5), 390-405.
30. Hudson, R. (2010). Resilient regions in an uncertain world: Wishful thinking or practical reality? Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, 3(1), 11-26.
31. Jayaraman, T. K. (2004). Coping with Vulnerability by Building Economic Resilience: The Case of Vanuatu, in Briguglio L. ve Kisanga E. (Eds.) Economic Vulnerability and Resilience of Small States, 135-148, University of Malta, Islands and Small States Institute, Msida.
32. Kakderi, C. ve Tasopoulou, A. (2017). Regional economic resilience: The role of national and regional policies. European Planning Studies, 25(8), 1435-1453.
33. Kazgan, G. (2008) Türkiye’de Ekonomik Krizler: (1929-2001) Nedenleri ve sonuçları üzerine karşılaştırmalı bir irdeleme, 25-26-27 Eylül, DEGEV-Türkiye İş Bankası.
34. Kazgan, G. (2012). Türkiye ekonomisinde krizler (1929-2009), İstanbul Bilgi Üniversitesi Yayınları, İstanbul.
35. Kindleberger, C. P. (1978). Manias, panics and crashes: a history of financial crises. Palgrave Macmillan (1st edition).
36. Maguire, B. ve Cartwright, S. (2008). Assessing a community’s capacity to manage change: A resilience approach to social assessment, Australian Government Bureau of Rural Sciences, Canberra, ACT.
37. Martin, R. (2012). Regional economic resilience, hysteresis and recessionary shocks, Journal of Economic Geography, 12(1), 1-32.
38. Martin, R. ve Sunley, P. (2015). On the notion of regional economic resilience: Conceptualization and explanation, Journal of Economic Geography, 15(1), 1-42.
39. Miao, J. T. (2015). Diverse regions: building resilient communities and territories, The Town Planning Review, 86(1), 97-102.
40. Minsky, H. P. (1977). A theory of systemic fragility, in Edward I. Altman ve Arnold W.Sametz (eds) Financial Crises: Institutions and Markets in A Fragile Environment, New York: John Wiley and Sons, 138-152.
41. Mülkiye İktisadi ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Merkezi (MİSAM) (2018). 2018 Yılı Döviz Kuru Krizi’ne İlişkin Görüş, https://mulkiye.org.tr/2018-yili-doviz-kuru-krizine-iliskin-gorus/.
42. Murua, J. R. ve Ferrero, A. M. (2019). Talking about regional resilience: evidence from two formerly rural Spanish regions, European Planning Studies, 27(11), 2312-2328.
43. Navarro-Espigares, J., Martin-Segura, J. ve Hernandez-Torres, E. (2012). The role of the service sector in regional economic resilience, Service Industries Journal, 32(4), 571-590.
44. Pickles, J. ve Smith, A. (2011). Delocalization and persistence in the European clothing industry: The reconfiguration of trade and production networks, Regional Studies, 45(2), 167-185.
45. Pike, A., Dawley, S. ve Tomaney, J. (2010). Resilience, adaptation and adaptability, Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, 3(1), 59-70.
46. Potter, A. ve Watts, H. D. (2012). Revisiting Marshall's agglomeration economies: Technological relatedness and the evolution of the Sheffield metals cluster, Regional Studies, 48(4), 603-623.
47. Psycharis, Y., Kallioras, D. ve Pantazis, P. (2014). Economic crisis and regional resilience: detecting the ‘geographical footprint’ of economic crisis in Greece. Regional Science Policy & Practice, 6(2), 121-141.
48. Psycharis, Y., Tsiapa, M. ve Tselios, V. (2020). Exports and regional resilience: Evidence from Greece. In Gillian Bristow ve Adrian Healy (eds) Handbook on Regional Economic Resilience, Edward Elgar Publishing, 226-241.
49. Samora-Arvela, A., Vaz, E., Ferao, J., Ferreira, J. ve Panagopoulos, T. (2018). Diversifying Mediterranean tourism as a strategy for regional resilience enhancement. In H. Pinto, T. Noronha ve E. Vaz (eds) Resilience and Regional Dynamics, Springer, Cham, 105-127.
50. Tan, J., Lo, K., Qiu, F., Liu, W., Li, J. ve Zhang, P. (2017). Regional economic resilience: Resistance and recoverability of resource-based cities during economic crises in Northeast China, Sustainability, 9(12), 2136.
51. Treado, C. D. ve Giarratani, F. (2008). Intermediate steel-industry suppliers in the Pittsburgh region: A cluster-based analysis of regional economic resilience, Economic Development Quarterly, 22(1), 63-75.