Türkiye’de il düzeyinde ekonomik dirençliliğin ölçülmesi: 2000-2019 döneminin analizi

Öz

Bu çalışma, Türkiye'de illerin son üç ekonomik krizde (2001, 2009, 2018) performanslarını incelemektedir. Bu krizlerin etkileri, kişi başına düşen yıllık ortalama gelir kaybıyla ölçülmektedir. Krizlerin iller üzerindeki olumsuz etkileri, illerin kırılganlık derecesi ile açıklanmaktadır. Kriz öncesi ve sonrası Gayri Safi Yurtiçi Hasıla (GSYH) incelenmiş ve illerdeki yüksek kayıp oranlarına etki eden faktörler araştırılmıştır. Türkiye'de son üç kriz aynı anda değerlendirildiğinde dirençli iller olmadığı, ancak krizlerin yapısına bağlı olarak bazı illerin belirli bir durumda görece daha dayanıklı, bazılarının ise daha kırılgan olduğu tespit edilmiştir. İthalat ve ihracatın GSYH içindeki payları, kredi/GSYH oranı ve uzmanlaşma derecesi (HHI endeksi) illerin üç kriz dönemindeki performanslarında sınırlı etkiye sahip olduğu tespit edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Dirençlilik
• Yerel/Bölgesel Kalkınma
• Ekonomik Kriz

Measuring economic resilience at the provincial level in Turkey: Analysis of the 2000-2019 period

Abstract

This study investigates the performances of provinces in Turkey in the last three economic crises (2001, 2009, 2018). The effects of those crises are measured by annual average income loss per capita. The negative effects of the crises on provinces are explained by the vulnerability degree of provinces. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) before and after the crisis were examined and the factors influencing high rates of losses in provinces are investigated. It is found that there are no resilient provinces in Turkey when all the recent three crises are considered at the same time, but depending on the structure of the crises some provinces are relatively more resilient while some are more fragile in a particular case. It is found that the shares of import and export in GDP, credit/GDP rate and specialization degree (HHI index) has limited influence in the performances of provinces under three crises.

Keywords

• Resilience
• Local/Regional development
• Economic crisis

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