Calculating Weibull Coefficients Using the Maximum Likelihood Method and Comparing Performance Across Sites

Year 2024, , 237 - 247, 01.03.2024

Alper Kaplan

https://doi.org/10.35378/gujs.1092617

Abstract

In this study, the compliance of the Weibull Distribution Function (WDF) and actual wind data (WD) from three different locations were investigated. The coefficients of the WDF were calculated using the Maximum Likelihood Method (MLM) in the Adana, Osmaniye, and Hatay regions. The main purpose of this study is to observe the performances of the MLM in determining the coefficients of the WDF in different regions in different years and to examine the success of this method in estimating the mean wind power and speed of the determined regions. The performance of the indicated approach in all three selected locations was evaluated using the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Coefficient of Determination (R2), and Mean Percentage Error (MPE). Also wind power densities were estimated for all three regions, which are one of the most essential metrics for estimating a region's wind energy (WE) potential. WDF power densities were estimated and compared to real wind power densities generated from measured WD for three different places. The performance of the method described in this paper was investigated in depth in various places with varying geographic characteristics. In addition, in the same years, the performance of the chosen method was evaluated in detail in three distinct places, and it was seen how geographical factors affected the method's performance.

Keywords

Weibull distribution function, Maximum likelihood method, WE potential

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