ESTIMATION OF NUMBER OF VEHICLES AND AMOUNT OF POLLUTANTS GENERATED BY VEHICLES IN TURKEY UNTIL 2030

Year 2012, Volume: 25 Issue: 2, 495 - 503, 16.04.2012

Hamit Solmaz , İsmet Celikten

Abstract

Air pollution is triggering and accelerating the global warming. In this study, the amount of the pollutants

Key Words: Vehicle emissions, pollutants, estimation of emissions,

estimation of vehicle number.

resulting from the vehicles is estimated in accordance with changes of the total number of vehicles in Turkey until 2030. The number of vehicles by 2030 is estimated according to the number of vehicles between 2001- 2007 years. The Approximate average annual kilometers of vehicles is calculated and amount of the pollutants is also calculated by using dynamic emission factors. According to result of estimation, total number of vehicles in the years 2010-2020-2030 is 11657460, 18358290, 25294090 respectively, and the amount of total exhaust emission (CO, PM, HC, NOx, SOx) is 63, 105, and 173 million tons respectively. Total amount of pollutants in 2020 increased %66 compared with 2010 and 2030 increased %64 according to 2020. While number of vehicles increase %116, amount of pollutants is estimated to increase %174 in 2030 compared with 2010.

Keywords

Vehicle emissions, pollutants, estimation of emissions, estimation of vehicle number

References

• [1] Özoğuz, B., “Estimation of Turkish Road Transport Emissions and Emission Reduction Scenarios”, Journal of Engineering and Natural Sciences, 26(3):198–205(2008).
• [2] Yeşilyurt, C., Akcan, N., “Air Quality Monitoring Methods and Sampling Criteria”, Refik Saydam National Public Healty Agency, Ankara (2000).
• [3] Çobanoğlu, N., Pekcan, S., Aslan, A., Kiper, N., “Outdoor and Indoor Air Pollution”, Asthma Allergy Immunology, 3(2): 77–85(2005).
• [4] Bayram, H., “Air Pollution Problem in Turkey: Sources, Measures Taken and the Present Status”, Turkish Thoracic Journal, 6(2): 159–165(2005).
• [5] Haşimoğlu, C., Đçingür, Y., Öğüt, H., “Experimental Analysis of the Exhaust Gas Recirculation (EGR) on Engine Performance and Exhaust Emissions on Diesel Engines”, Turkish Journal of Engineering and Environmental Sciences, 26(1): 127–135(2002).
• [6] Vural, M.S., “Yapı Đçi Hava Niteliği Risk Süreci Modeli Belirlenmesi”, PhD Thesis, Yıldız Technical University Institute of Science and Technology, Đstanbul (2004).
• [7] Ulusoy, A., Vural, T., “Socio- Economic Effect of Urbanization”, Belediye Dergisi, 5, 7-12(2001). [8] Anonymous, “Socio-Economic Wiew”, Konya Chamber of Commerce Research and Development Service, Konya (2007).
• [9] Anonymous, “Number of Roadmotor Vehicles by Type and Usage”. Turkish Statistical Institute, Ankara (2009).
• [10] Çelikten, Đ., “An Experimental Study On The Requirement Of Using Catalytic Converter In Turkey”, PhD Thesis, Gazi University Institute of Science and Technology, Ankara (1996).
• [11] Borat, O., Balcı, M., Sürmen, A., “Air Pollution and Control Methods”, Technical Education Foundation Publications, Ankara, 116(1992).
• [12] Kristensson, A., Johansson, C., Westerholm, R., Swietlicki, E., Gidhagen, L., Wideqvist, U., Vesely, V., “Real-world traffic emission factors of gases and particles measured in a road tunnel in Stockholm, Sweden”, Atmospheric Environment, 38(5): 657- 673(2004).
• [13] Gramotnev, G., Brown, R., Ristovski, Z., Morawska, L., “Determination of average emission factors for vehicles on a busy road”, Atmospheric Environment, 37(4): 465-474 (2003).
• [14] Zhang, J., Smith, K.R., Ma, Y., Ye, S., Jiang, F., Qi, W., Liu, P., Khalil, M.A.K., Rasmussen, R.A., Thorneloe, S.A., “Greenhouse gases and other airborne pollutants from household stoves in China: a database for emission factors”, Atmospheric Environment, 34: 4537-4549(2000).
• [15] Hausberger, S., Rodler, J., Sturm, P., Rexeis, M., “Emission factors for heavy-duty vehicles and validation by tunnel measurements”, Atmospheric Environment, 37(37): 5237-5245(2003).
• [16] Singer, B.C., Harley, R.A., “A fuel-based inventory of motor vehicle exhaust emissions in the Los Angeles area during summer 1997”, Atmospheric Environment, 34(11): 1783-1795(2000).
• [17] Zhang, Q., Xu, J., Gang, W., Tian, W., Jiang H., “Vehicle Emission Inventories Projection Based on Dynamic Emission Factors: A Case Study of Hangzhou China”, Atmospheric Environment, 42: 4989–5002 (2008).
• [18] Anonymous, TPIA Sector Report 2008, Turkish Petroleum Industry Association, Đstanbul (2008). [19] Alkaya, B., Yıldırım, M. A., “Methods for Reduction of Air Pollution From Motor Vehicles”, Ekoloji Çevre Dergisi, 9(34):15-20 (2000).
• [20] Kirchstetter, T.W., Harley, R.A., Kreisberg, N.M., Stolzenburg, M.R., Hering, S.V., “On road measurement of fine particle and nitrogen oxide emissions from light- and heavy-duty motor vehicles”, Atmospheric Environment, 33(18): 2955- 2968(1999).
• [21] Ristovski, Z.D., Jayaratne, E.R., Morawska, L., Ayoko, G.A., Lim, M., “Particle and carbon dioxide emissions from passenger vehicles operating on unleaded petrol and LPG fuel”, Science of The Total Environment, 345(1-3): 93-98(2005).
• [22] Akgüngör, A. P., Doğan, E., “Application Smeed and Andreassen Accident Models for Turkey: Various Scenario Analysis”, Journal of The Faculty of Engineering and Architecture of Gazi University, 23(4): 821-827(2008).
• [23] Çanakci, M., Gerpen, J.V., “The Performance and Emissions Characteristics of Vegetable Oil-Based and Fat Based Biodiesel”, ASAE Paper No: 01- 6050(2001).
• [24] Schmidt, K., Gerpen, J. V., “The Effect of Biodiesel Fuel Composition on Diesel Combustion and Emissions”, SAE Paper No: 961086(1996).